ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Most definitely different than the GFS but the outcome still should be the same. Looks like a recurve, except for possibly Bermuda, with that trough digging across the plains and Midwest states.

[SFLcane]

trof coming..

[ColdMiser123]

WIldly different pattern on Euro compared to the GFS.

[gatorcane]

216 hours ut oh...trough over Northern US is retrograding back SW into Central US instead of pushing east. The ECMWF looks to move the system just into the Hebert box.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's a pretty good trough for early September...

[sma10]

Interesting trough depiction by the Euro on day 9. We are so used to the eastern trough being set up right on the coast, what would happen if it instead dug toward the nation's midsection, i.e. Texas, Arkansas?

[SouthFLTropics]

Western edge of the Bermuda high would be setup further west most likely and would steer the systems closer to the East Coast.

[ColdMiser123]

Far out, but the Euro looks like it will cross 70W. Depending on the orientation of the trough and the ridge will depend on how this future system tracks.

[gatorcane]

How the 12Z Euro ends and this is long-range. Monster ridge vs monster trough. The Euro has really shifted west. Quite a concerning run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

How would this set up on day 10 of the ECMWF play out for the SE coast?

[ColdMiser123]

Verbatim, weakness is right along the SE coast. Too early to say either way where this goes.

[SouthFLTropics]

Prediction of troughs and ridges at 10 days, as we all know, is not even close to be an exact science. What I find interesting is how pronounced both the ridge and the trough are at hour 240. They are both very stout. Considering the timeframe is early September I'd give the advantage to the ridge which doesn't give me a warm or fuzzy feeling about possible CONUS impacts.

[gatorcane]

Verbatim, weakness is right along the SE coast. Too early to say either way where this goes.

http://i.imgur.com/v0dcaSP.png

Agreed tough to say if the Bermuda High would build more west or the trough would build more east. Just too early to say. It's all long-range and the shifts are probably not over. The CMC and GFS recurve the system much earlier on so don't put the system in the same position the ECMWF has it.

[RL3AO]

That's a pretty good trough for early September...

It is. GFS even has a frost across most of MN by the end of its run.

[sma10]

What a fantastic Day 10 cliffhanger panel.

Realize it's all fantasy-land anyway, but would have been really nice to see a Day 11 to see what happens.

[KWT]

Think this maybe a classic overdone trough looking at the models out to 240hrs, ECM strength wise for the upper trough is less impressive (though still there!).

Watch for the GFS/CMC to slowly but surely dial back the strength of that upper trough and with it probably promote a stronger upper ridge. Placement probably is pretty good but with these systems a small timing error could make the difference between a Florida cane and a cane going out to sea near Bermuda...

[cycloneye]

18z guidance.

[Kingarabian]

So far this season, anything past 96 hours should be considered long range.

[KWT]

What a fantastic Day 10 cliffhanger panel.

Realize it's all fantasy-land anyway, but would have been really nice to see a Day 11 to see what happens.

I think on the 12z ECM it does hit land before probably curving up the coast or just inland, the trough is tilted in a really worrying way on that run.

Still, that is a very long way, but this is the first time ALL models have been developing a system, its all been a little lukewarm this season for nearly all systems.

Probable major out of this, regardless of where it tracks.

[Blinhart]

All I have to say it needs to stay out to sea, hopefully doesn't hurt CVI too much.