ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Cataegis96]

Might wait for evening shift or tomorrow's recon for any upgrade. But it is likely running out of time. Still impressive for the MDR in July.

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave. looks fairly decent with the structure.

[NDG]

The last pass should be enough to send out a VDM.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172030
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 35 20170717
202000 1129N 05209W 9770 00320 0134 +225 +221 120018 018 014 001 00
202030 1130N 05208W 9770 00320 0134 +225 +219 121018 018 015 000 00
202100 1131N 05207W 9771 00319 0134 +225 +221 120017 018 013 001 00
202130 1132N 05206W 9769 00322 0135 +225 +223 124017 017 012 001 00
202200 1133N 05205W 9773 00318 0135 +226 +220 125017 018 013 001 00
202230 1134N 05204W 9770 00321 0135 +225 +218 124017 017 012 001 00
202300 1135N 05203W 9771 00321 0136 +225 +217 124016 017 012 001 00
202330 1136N 05201W 9771 00321 0136 +225 +219 122015 016 012 000 00
202400 1137N 05200W 9771 00321 0136 +228 +210 124016 016 013 000 00
202430 1138N 05159W 9769 00323 0136 +230 +207 119017 017 014 000 00
202500 1139N 05158W 9772 00321 0136 +225 +211 120017 017 013 001 00
202530 1140N 05157W 9770 00322 0136 +226 +214 122017 017 011 001 00
202600 1141N 05156W 9769 00323 0137 +225 +215 122017 018 013 000 00
202630 1142N 05155W 9773 00321 0138 +225 +217 118016 017 013 000 00
202700 1143N 05153W 9770 00324 0138 +225 +220 118016 016 012 001 00
202730 1144N 05152W 9771 00323 0138 +225 +220 116015 016 012 000 00
202800 1145N 05151W 9770 00324 0139 +226 +215 114016 016 012 001 00
202830 1146N 05150W 9771 00324 0139 +228 +214 115015 016 012 001 00
202900 1147N 05149W 9770 00325 0140 +225 +216 117014 015 012 000 00
202930 1148N 05148W 9771 00325 0140 +226 +217 118014 015 012 001 00
$$

[p1nheadlarry]

I think they've found enough for an upgrade to TD this hour. Whether or not it will reach minimal TS strength east of the islands is the big question. Certainly possible. Not more than that, though. Models don't support much of a low once it reaches the Caribbean, similar to Bret.

I've ever been to the Leewards but I guess the trade winds are what named them after all.

[Sciencerocks]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Tropical Storm Don, located east of the Windward Islands.

[RL3AO]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Tropical Storm Don, located east of the Windward Islands.

[cycloneye]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Jul 2017 20:33 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Tropical Storm Don, located east of the Windward Islands.

[weathaguyry]

Yay! We have Don!

[NDG]

Tropical Storm Don!

[Ntxw]

Atlantic MDR does it again with Don, similar to Bret

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172040
AF302 01BBA INVEST HDOB 36 20170717
203000 1149N 05147W 9770 00326 0141 +228 +215 120014 014 012 000 00
203030 1150N 05145W 9771 00326 0142 +226 +219 120014 014 012 000 03
203100 1150N 05144W 9772 00326 0142 +226 +216 121014 014 010 001 00
203130 1151N 05143W 9772 00326 0142 +230 +214 119014 015 011 000 00
203200 1152N 05142W 9770 00328 0143 +227 +219 117014 014 011 000 03
203230 1154N 05142W 9768 00330 0144 +226 +223 112013 014 /// /// 03
203300 1155N 05143W 9768 00329 0143 +229 +221 103013 013 011 000 00
203330 1155N 05144W 9770 00327 0142 +230 +217 102014 014 011 001 00
203400 1155N 05146W 9770 00326 0141 +230 +216 101014 014 013 000 00
203430 1155N 05148W 9770 00326 0141 +230 +216 098015 015 013 000 00
203500 1155N 05150W 9772 00325 0141 +230 +212 099015 016 012 001 00
203530 1155N 05151W 9771 00326 0140 +230 +215 100015 016 013 001 00
203600 1155N 05153W 9769 00328 0140 +229 +217 098015 016 012 000 00
203630 1155N 05155W 9770 00326 0140 +230 +215 098016 017 014 000 03
203700 1155N 05156W 9770 00325 0140 +230 +211 097017 017 012 002 00
203730 1155N 05158W 9770 00326 0140 +230 +216 098015 017 014 001 00
203800 1155N 05200W 9770 00326 0140 +230 +216 096016 016 014 001 00
203830 1155N 05201W 9772 00324 0140 +229 +219 098015 016 013 000 00
203900 1155N 05203W 9770 00326 0140 +228 +219 097015 016 014 001 00
203930 1155N 05205W 9768 00327 0140 +229 +216 095016 017 014 001 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

Atlantic MDR does it again with Don, similar to Bret

Should make the ACE for the Atlantic basin average again if it can last longer than 34 hours.

[NDG]

VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 172040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952017
A. 17/20:11:50Z
B. 11 deg 11 min N
052 deg 27 min W
C. NA
D. 24 kt
E. 245 deg 4 nm
F. 356 deg 27 kt
G. 246 deg 19 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 19 C / 760 m
J. 26 C / 304 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 01BBA INVEST OB 09
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 27 KT 246 / 19 NM 20:04:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 29 C 258 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[NDG]

VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 172040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952017
A. 17/20:11:50Z
B. 11 deg 11 min N
052 deg 27 min W
C. NA
D. 24 kt
E. 245 deg 4 nm
F. 356 deg 27 kt
G. 246 deg 19 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 19 C / 760 m
J. 26 C / 304 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 01BBA INVEST OB 09
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 27 KT 246 / 19 NM 20:04:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 29 C 258 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[RL3AO]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

[Weather150]

There we have it, Don.

[tolakram]

We (not all of us, but I certainly was guilty here) have gotten so used to a dead MDR I thought this was a test invest.

[Sciencerocks]

Three MDR tropical cyclones by July 17th is remarkable.

Yep,

With the warmer MDR SST's and placement of the azores/Bermuda high i'd wouldn't be surprised to see a season kind of like 1996 or 2004 when it comes to Cape verde long trackers. Something big is going to get developed next month within my opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

Now would having 2 Tropical Storms and 1 Tropical Depression in the Tropical Atlantic by July 17th be a very good indication of an active season?