ATL: IRMA - Models

[txwatcher91]

Here is a view of the ECMWF ensemble.. Still quite the spread.

The key in this graphic is probably 40 of the members take this through the Hebert Box. Climo says that once a storm enters that region the chances for a US landfall skyrocket, and with this only about 5 days out from Irma entering that region, the high probability odds from the Euro ensembles of Irma passing through it is something to watch closely as the EPS skill inside 5 days is quite good from my experience. Much better than the GFS and CMC and their ensembles.

[AJC3]

After looking at each of the 51 ECMWF ensemble members with the 00z suite, here is the breakdown (this is only for the long range CONUS):

21 recurves:
https://preview.ibb.co/kt4bYa/Webp_net_gifmaker_6.gif

15 Florida:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker5fc746.gif[/img]

9 Carolinas:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker247eab.gif[/img]

4 Gulf of Mexico:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker370c87.gif[/img]

1 Northeast:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090100_282_35_149_m7.png[/img]

Wow...thanks so much for putting this together. So, more than half are indicating some type of landfall. There must be some real eastern outliers in the 21 recurves to have the mean be as far east as it is.

Ditto. This was a GREAT post.

[Steve]

06z guidance this morning has moved even further north the islands so the trends are good today. ECMWF is powerful with 1 run out to sea this place is a desert.

People go radio silent when it doesn't do what they want. If it shifts back west, this place will go crazy again. The ebb and flow of a weather forum I guess. I am cautiously optimistic that they are at least seeing a northern turn at some point, hopefully far and away from affecting anyone.

Also usually at 6 something in the morning unless there is an imminent threat or landfall happening. I like the idea of an out to sea storm the best. European notably handling the upper air pattern completely different across NE Canada as well as the trough centered around 90 it had cutting off. So the logical progression with the trough in and off of Eastern Canada would be a recurve unless it was WAY farther south. People want the action and excitement, but we don't need another Cat 4 or Cat 5 for a while.

[USTropics]

13/15 ECMWF ensembles that eventually make landfall in Florida have interaction with PR or the Leeward Islands:

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is this mornings updated NAO forecast. As you can see the vast majority of red forecast lines are in positive territory...some are very positive which should indicate stronger East Coast ridging. I see a few dipping into negative territory...but not until after Sept 11 or so. Makes me wonder if the models will have to ultimately show stronger ridging very soon...or maybe the NAO doesnt have as much effect on trough-ridge setups as we thought...


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[Digital-TC-Chaser]

You can see the (u) patterns along the ridge weakness's from the troughs




A weak ridge tries too rebuild too the west but is quickly eroded away.
GEFS-Ens

[NDG]

13/15 ECMWF ensembles that eventually make landfall in Florida have interaction with PR or the Leeward Islands:

https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker809d0.gif

So in another words a track closer and or over the Lesser Antilles could mean a threat to FL down the road, it makes sense.

[p1nheadlarry]

It's pretty rare for a storm at Irma's location to impact Continental US - That is a fact.

I believe we will see some impact on the islands, but a threat to the SE US is decreasing IMO per all the [long range] guidance. That being said, it is long range guidance, which can and does change 100% of the time.

Yessir, and it's a long, long season

[CrazyC83]

Even if it does recurve, remember there is still land in the way. Bermuda and Atlantic Canada could be at serious risk. By definition, a storm that hits those is NOT a .

[northjaxpro]

The forecast I remembered seeing from last weekend projected the + NAO from the end of August through the first full week of September.

We will find out very soon if stronger ridging will become the prominent feature pertaining to Irma.

[OuterBanker]

I am breathing a rather hesitant sigh of relief. Hoping that it shifts more east.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if it does recurve, remember there is still land in the way. Bermuda and Atlantic Canada could be at serious risk. By definition, a storm that hits those is NOT a .

That's why I always call it a recurve and never call if a fish. Just remember if it does recurve, then it's doing exactly what a strong storm should be doing that forms this far out

[otowntiger]

13/15 ECMWF ensembles that eventually make landfall in Florida have interaction with PR or the Leeward Islands:

https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker809d0.gif

So in another words a track closer and or over the Lesser Antilles could mean a threat to FL down the road, it makes sense.

And of course if it has significant land interaction the strength will be greatly reduced.

[ronjon]

Still way out in the future so no one should be giving the all clear yet. Now if the encouraging eastward trend in the guidance remains consistent over a few days of model cycles, then we can breathe easier. Odds have always favored an open water recurve but still lots of uncertainty yet to be played out in the 500 mb pattern and eventual track of Irma.

[Blinhart]

It's pretty rare for a storm at Irma's location to impact Continental US - That is a fact.

I believe we will see some impact on the islands, but a threat to the SE US is decreasing IMO per all the [long range] guidance. That being said, it is long range guidance, which can and does change 100% of the time.

sorry to say you are wrong wrong and wrong on all points except the last one.

[tolakram]

It's pretty rare for a storm at Irma's location to impact Continental US - That is a fact.

I believe we will see some impact on the islands, but a threat to the SE US is decreasing IMO per all the [long range] guidance. That being said, it is long range guidance, which can and does change 100% of the time.

sorry to say you are wrong wrong and wrong on all points except the last one.

Why do you say he's wrong? Statement is simple enough and correct, it is rare for a storm at Irma's current location to hit the US. It's also rare for Cabo verde storms to hit the US. Not impossible, it's happened, but rare.

As a matter of fact, just taking the current location into account (65 mile radius), no storm in that location has hit the US. Now as Irma drops back SW things will change.

[meriland29]

So I see this morning that 00z GFS has it hitting the carolinas, 06z has it curving out, and Euro is trending toward GFS, correct?

[chris_fit]

So I see this morning that 00z GFS has it hitting the carolinas, 06z has it curving out, and Euro is trending toward GFS, correct?

For all we know, the 12Z GFS (which starts in a few min) will swing out to the W - who knows!

[meriland29]

And I was thinking Euro was gonna be the one trended towards...

[Steve]

...or maybe the NAO doesnt have as much effect on trough-ridge setups as we thought...

That would be difficult since it's essentially a measurement of pressure differnce at mean sea level between Azores High and Icelandic (also known as sub-polar) Low up that way.

For further verification, we'd have to look out to the WPAC for 7-10 day teleconnections which I haven't done yet but am about to do.

1) TS MAWAR moves NW into China coming up South of Taiwan with anticipated landfall just before 12Z on Sunday. Argues for ridging along the SE US East Coast 10th through 13th, possibly oriented with a NW-SE western periphery

2) Typhoon Sanvu recurves east of Japan on a NNE heading. This argues for troughing just off the US East Coast a bit farther north in the same time frame with probably a subtropical ridge to it's South and East.

^
Mixed signals for next week from the WPAC.