ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071518
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 41 20171007
150900 2531N 08739W 6969 03147 0038 +097 +076 209043 044 034 003 00
150930 2531N 08737W 6967 03147 0049 +088 +082 212050 056 031 005 00
151000 2531N 08735W 6973 03143 0060 +082 +077 209055 056 030 006 00
151030 2531N 08733W 6965 03153 0057 +085 +078 209055 055 030 007 00
151100 2531N 08730W 6967 03150 0058 +085 +079 211054 054 030 008 00
151130 2531N 08728W 6970 03149 0060 +085 +079 207054 055 030 008 00
151200 2531N 08726W 6969 03150 0062 +082 +078 204055 055 031 009 00
151230 2531N 08724W 6967 03153 0061 +084 +076 205058 060 030 009 00
151300 2531N 08722W 6970 03149 0061 +084 +070 203061 061 031 009 00
151330 2530N 08720W 6967 03153 0062 +085 +066 201061 061 031 008 00
151400 2530N 08718W 6969 03154 0063 +086 +063 202060 060 031 008 00
151430 2530N 08716W 6970 03154 0064 +087 +061 203061 062 031 008 00
151500 2530N 08714W 6970 03157 0065 +090 +056 201060 062 031 008 00
151530 2530N 08712W 6970 03159 0067 +089 +056 200058 059 032 007 00
151600 2530N 08709W 6969 03161 0069 +090 +054 201058 059 031 005 00
151630 2530N 08707W 6968 03164 0072 +087 +052 201061 062 031 004 00
151700 2530N 08705W 6971 03163 0078 +085 +047 196060 062 030 004 03
151730 2531N 08704W 6968 03166 0081 +084 +041 192060 061 /// /// 03
151800 2533N 08705W 6966 03166 0081 +084 +039 193057 059 /// /// 03
151830 2534N 08706W 6970 03163 0071 +090 +049 196056 057 032 004 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

Likely not going to cause significant structural damage... Sucks for all those folks about to lose power, trees, fences, sheds, and mobile home car ports... For most it won't be enough to meet deductible for insurance, so out of your pocket repairs... Once your area is declared disaster some banks can offer forbearance program for payments... Good luck, I've seen and starred in this movie many times...

[PTPatrick]

Officials now calling for Cat 2--think most of us saw that coming. Looking at landfall along the Miss Coast. Watching to see if storm has begun that mostly due N trek. I can't tell yet.

I'm actually still not convinced with the landfall in Miss. It will pretty much have to make that N movement from here on out to do that. Any further west component at all, will likely bring it in west of the Miss River and toward that Grand Isle area. IMO

I think it remains to be seen. I don't see it coming into New Orleans from the south. It's already basically out of the cone. So they are obviously discounting the globals with landfall a little west of nhc. NHC usually won't miss outside the cone 12 hrs out. Having said that I think the Plaquemines to pass Christian path is a real possibility. Nhc may be trying to err right too as they are well aware the effects are extremely lopsided to the east.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071524
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 46 20171007
151500 2750N 08227W 8294 01761 0131 +202 +115 170028 028 /// /// 03
151530 2751N 08225W 8416 01638 0134 +209 +123 173028 028 /// /// 03
151600 2752N 08223W 8452 01599 0134 +209 +124 168027 027 /// /// 03
151630 2752N 08221W 8662 01382 0132 +215 +133 166026 027 /// /// 03
151700 2753N 08219W 8905 01140 0134 +230 +149 165027 027 /// /// 03
151730 2754N 08217W 9074 00979 0138 +237 +161 162028 029 /// /// 03
151800 2754N 08215W 9169 00883 0134 +237 +175 160027 028 /// /// 03
151830 2755N 08213W 9322 00746 0138 +240 +196 154023 024 /// /// 03
151900 2756N 08211W 9400 00670 0142 +242 +211 153020 021 /// /// 03
151930 2756N 08209W 9415 00657 0141 +242 +214 141019 021 /// /// 03
152000 2757N 08208W 9429 00638 0137 +243 +215 143020 022 /// /// 03
152030 2758N 08207W 9477 00596 0138 +245 +221 148017 018 /// /// 03
152100 2759N 08205W 9661 00430 0139 +258 +225 150017 019 /// /// 03
152130 2759N 08204W 9813 00291 0136 +271 +229 149015 016 /// /// 03
152200 2759N 08203W 9964 00153 0131 +286 +237 145015 018 /// /// 03
152230 2759N 08201W 0081 00049 0136 +299 +240 140011 016 /// /// 03
152300 2759N 08201W 0077 00046 0125 +327 +243 104012 020 /// /// 03
152330 2759N 08200W 0084 00046 0135 +316 +244 158012 014 /// /// 03
152400 2759N 08200W 0084 00046 0136 +312 +244 165006 007 /// /// 03
152430 2759N 08201W 0084 00046 0135 +311 +244 080004 008 /// /// 03

[Sanibel]

The eye just came in to range on long range NWS Doppler radar south of the Mississippi Delta...

[La Breeze]

That possible rapid intensification from the black IR burst in the Yucatan Channel last night didn't pan out...Hope we didn't scare anyone, but Nate simmered down right afterward and geared more slowly up to its present correctly-predicted form by the National Hurricane Center...The outer band is 120 miles west of us and the center is already past us...Just some bush-shaking light gusts here...


This forward speed is more like that seen out in the Atlantic under the mid-Atlantic ridge...

I've got a little age on me, so I can relate the forward speed to an important hurricane of the past. Betsy (65) came rolling in from S Fl and made landfall at Grand Isle La as a major hurricane with this type of forward speed---early to mid Sept storm.

I must be in the same age range, because I remember Betsy very well coming through southern LA.

[bella_may]

Likely not going to cause significant structural damage... Sucks for all those folks about to lose power, trees, fences, sheds, and mobile home car ports... For most it won't be enough to meet deductible for insurance, so out of your pocket repairs... Once your area is declared disaster some banks can offer forbearance program for payments... Good luck, I've seen and starred in this movie many times...

I hope you are right

[stormreader]

Likely not going to cause significant structural damage... Sucks for all those folks about to lose power, trees, fences, sheds, and mobile home car ports... For most it won't be enough to meet deductible for insurance, so out of your pocket repairs... Once your area is declared disaster some banks can offer forbearance program for payments... Good luck, I've seen and starred in this movie many times...

Storm is still intensifying, though. Probably will have a little extra kick on the east side with the increased forward speed, too. But won't last as long.

[Javlin]

Likely not going to cause significant structural damage... Sucks for all those folks about to lose power, trees, fences, sheds, and mobile home car ports... For most it won't be enough to meet deductible for insurance, so out of your pocket repairs... Once your area is declared disaster some banks can offer forbearance program for payments... Good luck, I've seen and starred in this movie many times...

I hope you are right

If these winds continue to p/u I don't know??

[MidnightRain]

We’ve seen many a strong storm weaken on approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Maybe this time we shall see a strengthening storm through landfall. Could be some surprises to the upside on winds and surge.

Yes, the approach to the coast will be interesting to watch as it seems history favors a weakening storm in this area of the Gulf. Regardless, the situation has turned from a borderline TS/hurricane to a potentially significant hurricane at landfall which probably wasn't expected by most residents along the Gulf coast.

[mrbagyo]

the naked swirl WSW of Nate is still alive.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071529
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 42 20171007
151900 2535N 08708W 6966 03166 0066 +091 +054 196052 055 035 003 00
151930 2537N 08710W 6970 03159 0064 +093 +054 194051 051 035 003 00
152000 2538N 08711W 6969 03161 0069 +088 +059 194051 052 034 004 00
152030 2539N 08713W 6968 03160 0065 +090 +059 196055 057 032 005 00
152100 2541N 08714W 6967 03160 0063 +090 +060 197055 055 033 005 00
152130 2542N 08716W 6967 03159 0063 +090 +065 196052 054 034 006 03
152200 2544N 08717W 6969 03155 0061 +090 +067 197052 053 032 006 00
152230 2545N 08719W 6969 03155 0055 +091 +068 198052 052 034 004 00
152300 2546N 08720W 6967 03155 0058 +089 +074 198052 052 035 003 00
152330 2548N 08722W 6969 03153 0060 +087 +076 200053 054 035 003 00
152400 2549N 08723W 6969 03152 0055 +089 +075 198052 053 036 003 00
152430 2551N 08725W 6970 03149 0051 +092 +075 198052 052 037 002 00
152500 2552N 08726W 6966 03154 0051 +090 +080 198051 052 037 004 00
152530 2553N 08728W 6967 03149 0047 +092 +081 199050 050 037 004 00
152600 2555N 08729W 6969 03147 0045 +091 +083 199050 050 038 004 00
152630 2556N 08731W 6967 03148 0044 +093 +079 197048 049 038 005 00
152700 2558N 08732W 6969 03146 0043 +094 +076 197049 049 039 005 00
152730 2559N 08734W 6969 03144 0044 +092 +077 196048 049 041 006 00
152800 2600N 08735W 6969 03142 0045 +088 +080 196047 048 041 008 00
152830 2602N 08737W 6969 03141 0044 +088 +081 195050 051 045 008 00
$$
;

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 071457
XXAA 57147 99266 70880 08168 99986 25201 08603 00628 ///// /////
92560 24021 12604 85299 20606 13090 70968 12400 14545 88999 77999
31313 09608 81412
61616 AF305 0816A NATE OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 045 MBL WND 11597 AEV 33304 DLM WND 13079 985697 WL
150 10590 084 REL 2656N08803W 141245 SPG 2662N08810W 141649 =
XXBB 57148 99266 70880 08168 00986 25201 11926 24021 22850 20606
33807 20013 44727 15603 55697 11800
21212 00986 08603 11979 10079 22972 11095 33964 12104 44938 12599
55925 12604 66912 12592 77900 13100 88891 13096 99885 13604 11877
13591 22857 13093 33850 13090 44776 14079 55764 15056 66697 14543
31313 09608 81412
61616 AF305 0816A NATE OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 045 MBL WND 11597 AEV 33304 DLM WND 13079 985697 WL
150 10590 084 REL 2656N08803W 141245 SPG 2662N08810W 141649 =
;

[GBPackMan]

Based on the last recon, the pressure variation shows that the low pressure may be detached from the storm eyewall OR due to the speed of it, is at a tilt with the high altitude low leading ahead of the eye/center meaning strengthening any more is unlikely at this time.
There is the gyro weak low that was at the keys now along the S LA shores which is sapping some of the strength, as well as another weak low (remnant of Ramona) to the WSW that is doing the same thing. Watching the real color loops of the latest satellite images shows some high level NNW shear. This storm is just struggling to stay organized, it is a very small narrow area of hurricane force winds, another 100 miles or so with TS force winds, but because of the lack of organization it is difficult to nail down a sustained speed which is why there are so many different opinions. Is it 75, 90, 105? Even the recon plane could not find any area of steady wind speeds.

Doesn't mean we can relax, just means it is not likely to be as bad as some are claiming. Worst part will likely be the storm surge and the detached rain blotches at a distance.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071539
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 43 20171007
152900 2603N 08738W 6969 03138 0043 +087 +081 194051 052 049 008 00
152930 2605N 08740W 6963 03143 0037 +090 +082 193050 051 050 007 03
153000 2606N 08742W 6967 03137 0032 +094 +080 196052 053 049 008 00
153030 2607N 08743W 6967 03135 0032 +090 +082 194051 054 049 008 00
153100 2609N 08745W 6967 03131 0026 +093 +082 189050 051 051 008 00
153130 2610N 08746W 6973 03123 0040 +083 +083 192055 059 050 008 00
153200 2612N 08748W 6967 03131 0051 +081 +081 191058 059 048 018 00
153230 2613N 08749W 6965 03126 0050 +085 +085 191058 059 049 021 00
153300 2615N 08751W 6973 03117 0042 +086 +086 193056 057 051 022 03
153330 2616N 08753W 6970 03120 0039 +088 +088 200057 059 052 021 00
153400 2617N 08754W 6969 03120 0029 +091 +091 207055 059 051 018 03
153430 2619N 08755W 6971 03115 0018 +091 +091 212059 060 053 011 00
153500 2620N 08757W 6966 03115 0009 +091 +091 210055 060 055 010 00
153530 2621N 08758W 6969 03108 0017 +090 +090 207058 059 055 010 03
153600 2623N 08800W 6972 03101 0019 +090 +090 217063 064 054 015 03
153630 2624N 08801W 6969 03102 0008 +091 +091 216062 063 055 020 00
153700 2625N 08803W 6963 03112 0011 +090 +090 215062 064 056 020 00
153730 2626N 08804W 6962 03109 0004 +093 +093 210062 064 053 020 03
153800 2628N 08805W 6976 03095 0006 +096 +096 212057 062 061 012 03
153830 2629N 08807W 6979 03089 9989 +100 +093 215059 060 060 012 00
$$
;

[joey]

did nate leave a piece behind just south of western cuba

[BRweather]

Just look at those outer bands to the northwest. They are still moving southeast to northwest with no inhibitors. Just follow the moisture flow and Nate should continue on this NNW path.

[hurricaneCW]

Honestly Nate looks better than Irma did when she struck mainland Florida, you rarely see such cold cloud tops this far north.

Nate is going to catch people off guard and the surge will come in around high tide too exacerbating the impacts.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071548
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 44 20171007
153900 2630N 08808W 6966 03100 9992 +093 +091 213059 062 064 010 00
153930 2632N 08810W 6970 03090 9982 +094 +082 219061 062 064 010 03
154000 2633N 08811W 6964 03096 9975 +097 +087 219062 063 059 010 03
154030 2634N 08813W 6978 03078 9968 +100 +087 215063 063 051 004 00
154100 2635N 08814W 6966 03084 9951 +110 +073 214062 063 052 004 00
154130 2637N 08815W 6976 03066 9944 +111 +070 216063 064 053 003 00
154200 2638N 08817W 6966 03073 9925 +120 +071 224063 063 054 003 00
154230 2639N 08818W 6968 03067 9919 +122 +081 230061 064 056 002 00
154300 2640N 08820W 6963 03066 9911 +120 +082 229053 058 056 003 00
154330 2642N 08821W 6970 03053 9908 +122 +082 233053 053 054 004 00
154400 2643N 08822W 6974 03044 9894 +127 +087 235054 054 054 002 00
154430 2644N 08823W 6962 03053 9882 +133 +090 233052 054 055 002 00
154500 2646N 08824W 6970 03038 9853 +152 +092 234045 050 055 002 00
154530 2647N 08826W 6963 03038 9846 +152 +085 239038 040 056 002 00
154600 2648N 08827W 6969 03025 9839 +153 +078 243037 039 055 002 00
154630 2650N 08828W 6971 03017 9824 +161 +085 244028 034 055 002 00
154700 2652N 08829W 6958 03029 9818 +163 +082 223014 028 047 003 00
154730 2653N 08830W 6974 03010 9815 +166 +075 224009 013 033 002 00
154800 2655N 08831W 6970 03016 9808 +172 +067 247008 014 025 000 00
154830 2656N 08832W 6972 03005 9808 +166 +066 280006 007 017 002 00
$$

[Annie Oakley]

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