ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

959 for the third time.

URNT15 KWBC 040001
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 29 20170903
235130 1715N 04952W 6957 03093 9948 +105 +104 178059 060 052 008 00
235200 1715N 04954W 6958 03084 9941 +102 //// 176065 068 054 009 01
235230 1715N 04956W 6964 03068 9932 +103 +095 174069 070 055 005 00
235300 1715N 04959W 6957 03062 9918 +101 //// 177071 073 057 007 01
235330 1715N 05001W 6952 03052 9901 +101 //// 178075 076 058 017 01
235400 1715N 05003W 6938 03055 9874 +106 //// 184079 080 064 021 05
235430 1715N 05005W 6946 03025 9850 +108 //// 187083 086 069 022 05
235500 1715N 05007W 6955 02991 9820 +113 //// 188086 087 066 034 05
235530 1715N 05009W 6963 02953 9788 +115 //// 188087 090 087 041 01
235600 1715N 05011W 6922 02971 9736 +124 //// 199080 084 089 032 01
235630 1716N 05013W 6921 02938 9691 +132 //// 200063 070 090 029 05
235700 1716N 05015W 6953 02867 9643 +149 +134 196049 055 061 005 00
235730 1717N 05017W 6957 02842 9621 +148 +132 195030 036 042 004 03
235800 1717N 05019W 6957 02829 9599 +158 +126 198013 018 027 002 00
235830 1718N 05021W 6959 02822 9586 +166 +119 023002 007 020 002 00
235900 1718N 05023W 6957 02827 9594 +162 +120 356015 019 020 002 00
235930 1718N 05026W 6958 02831 9591 +169 +118 000030 033 033 001 00
000000 1718N 05028W 6967 02832 9608 +164 +117 000048 053 046 004 00
000030 1718N 05030W 6967 02853 9643 +150 +130 357063 065 059 003 00
000100 1718N 05032W 6956 02891 9674 +147 +123 358070 073 073 004 00

[gatorcane]

Getting somewhat concerning here in SE Florida watching these models. But have been here before where models try to obliterate us about 6-7 days out and then once you get inside 3-4 days they have gradually shifted off us. Ike is a good example. Looked like a shoe-in hit but models kept shifting past us to the south. Not saying we will get so lucky yet again but we will know more in a few days once the system is in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and NE Leewards.

All attention should be on the islands at this point as the margin for error with the consensus model tracks is razor thin as far as core hurricane fore winds impacting the islands or something less, maybe a brush. Time to start watching every wobble.

[Extratropical94]

[northjaxpro]

I just caught up on the local news and apparently emergency preparedness county offices throughout the state have already discussed their planned actions needed to activate for this upcoming week, if necessary, for the approach of Irma late this week, if the projected forecast path toward Florida remains in place.

[Blown Away]

Lowest Latitude Predicted By Past Few NHC Forecasts:
11pm: ?? (Sunday Night)... I predict back down to 16.4 over next 24-36 hours due to the SW nose dive over past few hours...
5pm: 16.8
11am: 16.4
5am: 16.5
11pm: 16.5 (Saturday Night)
5pm: 16.8
11am: 17.1
5am: 17.0
11pm: 16.8 (Friday Night)

*** A few Mets on Storm2k have said the lower Irma goes in latitude delays the WNW turn and increases Irma affecting NE Caribbean & CONUS...

[eastcoastFL]

For what it's worth a coworker went to BJs in Weston (broward) and they are already out of water!

I went yesterday and got 6 cases in Jensen Beach and before I was done shopping it was all gone.

[jdjaguar]

I just caught up on the local news and apparently emergency preparedness county offices throughout the state have already discussed their planned actions needed to activate for this upcoming week, if necessary, for the approach of Irma late this week, if the projected forecast path toward Florida remains in place.

So maybe Tuesday instead of Wednesday
Cannot risk 95 parking lot

[gatorcane]

It does look like it is really losing latitude now. Wonder how low she goes?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:01pm EDT.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 040011
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 30 20170904
000130 1718N 05034W 6969 02904 9711 +141 +125 357083 085 085 004 00
000200 1718N 05036W 6970 02932 9757 +126 //// 004091 093 087 014 01
000230 1718N 05038W 6941 03000 9796 +125 //// 006090 092 080 014 01
000300 1718N 05040W 6957 03011 9833 +122 +120 003088 090 069 007 00
000330 1718N 05043W 6967 03025 9870 +116 +098 002085 088 067 004 00
000400 1718N 05045W 6957 03053 9881 +123 +101 001079 081 062 004 00
000430 1718N 05047W 6952 03076 9905 +119 +092 003075 075 060 005 00
000500 1718N 05049W 6966 03069 9927 +112 +085 006071 073 056 004 00
000530 1718N 05051W 6978 03065 9937 +111 +096 007065 066 054 003 00
000600 1718N 05053W 6961 03094 9944 +114 +083 009067 068 050 003 00
000630 1718N 05056W 6965 03097 9960 +109 +081 012064 065 048 004 00
000700 1718N 05058W 6958 03109 9972 +103 +086 016064 064 047 003 00
000730 1718N 05100W 6952 03124 9980 +102 +096 017062 062 045 002 00
000800 1718N 05102W 6950 03134 9990 +099 //// 019058 059 041 005 01
000830 1718N 05105W 6954 03133 9999 +096 //// 014054 055 039 004 01
000900 1718N 05107W 6953 03135 0004 +097 +086 012053 054 038 003 00
000930 1718N 05109W 6955 03139 0003 +103 +084 012052 053 040 002 00
001000 1718N 05112W 6970 03123 0002 +109 +064 012053 053 037 002 00
001030 1718N 05114W 6961 03140 0015 +102 +064 011052 053 036 002 00
001100 1718N 05116W 6970 03130 0022 +099 +071 013050 051 036 001 00

[jenlovesty]

I used Amazon prime now to get water delivered to the house. If you cannot find supplies I highly suggest ordering online while there is still time.

[Extratropical94]

[cycloneye]

@53rdWRS
The Hurricane Hunters arrived in St. Croix today and will begin flights into #HurricaneIrma tomorrow to collect data for the @NWSNHC.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/904495555325374464

[northjaxpro]

I just caught up on the local news and apparently emergency preparedness county offices throughout the state have already discussed their planned actions needed to activate for this upcoming week, if necessary, for the approach of Irma late this week, if the projected forecast path toward Florida remains in place.

So maybe Tuesday instead of Wednesday
Cannot risk 95 parking lot

Hopefully by late Tuesday, we should have a clearer idea of when and where will Irma be. Right now, do what is best for you and your family to prepare for this storm.

[Aric Dunn]

It does look like it is really losing latitude now. Wonder how low she goes?

The center is lagging behind the convection. The convection is both building and moving more to wsw to sw the center is moving just south of west currently. Which is why it looks poor on satellite. The center should move more with the convection shortly. And if recon is out there long enough we should see it. Given the current steering getting down to 16n is quite possible. Also the outflow is directed to the sw indicating steering. Needs to be watched close

[RL3AO]

959mb this pass. Winds @ 99kts. Supports 100kt winds.

Edit nvm the SFMR's are lower. Maybe 90-95kts.

IMO the data supports 95 kts, but with the low pressure, organizing eye, and 98kt SFMR, I think NHC will keep it 100kt for continuity. "Irma weakens to cat 2" isn't the message you want the NE islands to go to bed with tonight.

[Extratropical94]

[RL3AO]

Day 7 forecast from WPC. This is coordinated with NHC so it gives you an idea of what they're thinking beyond day 5.

[SootyTern]

I used Amazon prime now to get water delivered to the house. If you cannot find supplies I highly suggest ordering online while there is still time.

surprised more people don't just buy 5 gallon camping-style jugs and fill them up at their leisure

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 040021
NOAA2 0111A IRMA HDOB 31 20170904
001130 1718N 05118W 6957 03153 0028 +096 +078 011050 050 033 002 00
001200 1718N 05120W 6953 03158 0033 +093 +083 012050 051 034 002 00
001230 1718N 05123W 6956 03158 0035 +094 +075 013049 050 034 002 00
001300 1718N 05125W 6969 03143 0032 +099 +079 014048 049 034 002 00
001330 1717N 05127W 6960 03158 0036 +097 +084 020051 052 037 006 00
001400 1717N 05130W 6937 03188 0036 +097 //// 018052 054 035 004 01
001430 1717N 05132W 6954 03171 0040 +096 //// 020051 051 033 003 01
001500 1717N 05134W 6960 03164 0046 +095 +090 020050 051 034 003 00
001530 1717N 05137W 6967 03159 0034 +108 +075 020047 048 033 002 00
001600 1717N 05139W 6957 03171 0040 +107 +051 020047 048 035 002 00
001630 1717N 05141W 6958 03173 0042 +106 +062 020049 050 033 002 00
001700 1717N 05143W 6961 03171 0042 +108 +062 020046 048 031 002 00
001730 1717N 05146W 6959 03177 0051 +102 +072 017044 047 031 002 00
001800 1717N 05148W 6958 03181 0057 +101 +069 015042 043 029 002 00
001830 1717N 05150W 6956 03183 0055 +103 +072 015043 044 029 001 00
001900 1717N 05152W 6956 03185 0056 +105 +056 015045 046 029 001 00
001930 1717N 05155W 6957 03186 0061 +103 +054 019047 048 029 001 00
002000 1717N 05157W 6959 03186 0068 +098 +064 021047 048 027 001 00
002030 1717N 05200W 6959 03187 0071 +097 +067 019046 046 027 001 00
002100 1717N 05202W 6960 03188 0076 +095 +064 021046 047 026 001 00