ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

I'd go with 973 mb. A 13 mb drop in one advisory from another

I don’t see anything to indicate the pressure is that low, extrap is 975.6 so probably 978-979 but it’s definitely strengthening quickly.

[iHateDennis]

any way this is cat 3 at landfall?

[Steve]

976.6mb...

Wow. NAM a few days ago Started showing very decent structure around landfall. I would have gone home today from Texas but blew it off. I'll be back Monday and expecting power and flood issues at a minimum. Look our MGC and southern Plaquemines Parish!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/916709779237564417




Dr. Michael Brennan at NHC with the latest on hurricane Nate

Recorded link: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1MYGNXMllYZxw

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/916707702948196352




NWS New Orleans ✔@NWSNewOrleans
Our 6ft 6in MIC next to 11ft poll. THAT'S how high water could get along coast MS River to MS/AL line. If under evac order, LEAVE NOW! #Nate
12:52 PM - Oct 7, 2017

[drezee]

Either Nate is decoupling or they missed the drop

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071708
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 52 20171007
165900 2715N 08805W 6965 03103 9990 +092 +086 186068 070 062 012 00
165930 2715N 08803W 6961 03109 9998 +092 +091 186076 079 059 012 03
170000 2714N 08801W 6971 03100 0009 +091 +091 186075 079 060 017 03
170030 2714N 08759W 6971 03105 0020 +087 +087 180070 076 057 022 00
170100 2714N 08757W 6967 03108 0024 +088 +088 173062 068 057 031 00
170130 2714N 08755W 6968 03112 0030 +086 +086 166059 062 054 028 00
170200 2714N 08754W 6967 03113 0026 +084 +084 160061 063 051 020 00
170230 2714N 08752W 6969 03112 0021 +082 +082 161061 062 051 016 03
170300 2714N 08750W 6969 03116 0022 +084 +080 163061 062 051 008 00
170330 2714N 08748W 6967 03118 0019 +087 +079 166061 062 054 007 00
170400 2714N 08747W 6968 03119 0015 +092 +076 167058 060 050 007 00
170430 2714N 08745W 6971 03118 0014 +096 +062 167052 055 048 005 00
170500 2714N 08743W 6965 03127 0011 +100 +058 166050 051 047 006 00
170530 2714N 08741W 6970 03122 0010 +101 +058 166046 049 046 006 00
170600 2714N 08739W 6970 03122 0015 +098 +062 166048 049 046 007 00
170630 2713N 08737W 6969 03125 0018 +097 +069 169050 050 045 009 00
170700 2713N 08736W 6968 03128 0015 +100 +070 171050 050 046 009 00
170730 2713N 08734W 6969 03129 0018 +098 +074 173051 052 046 008 00
170800 2713N 08732W 6969 03131 0023 +096 +073 172049 051 045 007 00
170830 2713N 08730W 6968 03133 0025 +096 +073 172049 049 044 008 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

[ColdMiser123]

Either Nate is decoupling or they missed the drop

Looks like they missed the center, with surface wind of 26 KT.

[BRweather]

1. I think every northwest wobble has fairly large implications for places like Grand Isle

2. The pressure of 984 mb seems too high.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:06Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 16:44:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°13'N 88°50'W (27.2167N 88.8333W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 3°C (37°F)

L. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the southwest, NW-SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

[txwatcher91]

They missed the center. Pressure is probably right at 979-980 based on the VDM and 26kts of wind with the 984mb pressure.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071718
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 53 20171007
170900 2713N 08728W 6961 03141 0025 +097 +072 170048 049 044 008 03
170930 2715N 08727W 6969 03135 0031 +094 +073 166048 050 043 007 00
171000 2717N 08727W 6967 03136 0030 +095 +069 163048 050 044 007 00
171030 2720N 08727W 6967 03135 0031 +094 +067 163048 050 044 008 00
171100 2722N 08727W 6969 03136 0037 +090 +064 163047 048 041 008 03
171130 2724N 08727W 6969 03136 0032 +095 +072 163048 050 042 007 00
171200 2726N 08726W 6968 03139 0031 +095 +075 162049 050 040 004 00
171230 2728N 08726W 6969 03138 0028 +098 +073 161053 054 040 003 00
171300 2730N 08726W 6967 03139 0025 +100 +070 160055 055 039 001 00
171330 2733N 08726W 6967 03139 0023 +105 +069 162054 055 039 001 00
171400 2735N 08725W 6967 03139 0025 +102 +070 162055 055 038 001 00
171430 2737N 08725W 6969 03139 0023 +103 +070 159056 057 036 001 00
171500 2739N 08725W 6967 03140 0028 +100 +069 159058 058 036 000 00
171530 2741N 08725W 6970 03138 0030 +100 +064 160058 058 036 002 00
171600 2744N 08724W 6971 03136 0026 +102 +059 158056 057 035 002 00
171630 2746N 08724W 6965 03144 0029 +101 +058 159057 058 033 001 00
171700 2748N 08724W 6972 03136 0022 +106 +058 160054 057 032 001 00
171730 2750N 08724W 6967 03141 0026 +105 +057 160056 057 031 001 00
171800 2752N 08723W 6971 03138 0025 +106 +050 160054 056 031 001 00
171830 2755N 08723W 6969 03141 0027 +105 +047 160054 054 031 001 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

The eyewall on radar does not appear open onthe NW to SW.... at least high up..

[Javlin]

10/07 11:00 AM 26.6N 88.4W 90MPH 984mb Nnw at 26 MPH H1 Nate 10/07 10:58 AM Beven
Center Fix Coordinates: 27°13'N 88°50'W (27.2167N 88.8333W)
That's .7N and .4W

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071706
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/16:44:30Z
B. 27 deg 13 min N
088 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2966 m
D. 47 kt
E. 293 deg 6 nm
F. 006 deg 45 kt
G. 288 deg 8 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 13 C / 3044 m
J. 23 C / 3039 m
K. 3 C / NA
L. OPEN NW-SW
M. C24
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0816A NATE OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT 086 / 28 NM 16:55:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 245 / 26 KT
;

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 071705
XXAA 57177 99272 70889 08178 99984 26625 24526 00646 ///// /////
92545 24831 24516 85291 24456 00512 70981 16457 33508 88999 77999
31313 09608 81644
61616 AF305 0816A NATE OB 23
62626 CENTER MBL WND 24525 AEV 33304 DLM WND 29508 983697 WL150 2
5030 084 REL 2723N08887W 164457 SPG 2722N08886W 164935 =
XXBB 57178 99272 70889 08178 00984 26625 11850 24456 22797 24260
33735 20258 44697 16057
21212 00984 24526 11968 24531 22956 25026 33949 23521 44934 23519
55907 27015 66894 28006 77850 00512 88837 01015 99814 35017 11800
35513 22774 33010 33697 33508
31313 09608 81644
61616 AF305 0816A NATE OB 23
62626 CENTER MBL WND 24525 AEV 33304 DLM WND 29508 983697 WL150 2
5030 084 REL 2723N08887W 164457 SPG 2722N08886W 164935 =
;

[CDO62]

When will he turn to the north?

[Blown Away]

Cloud tops appear to be warming... Hopefully Nate has peaked..