ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tgenius
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2181 Postby tgenius » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Eyewall convection really starting to become organized again. Ir looks like deepening is about to occur. Also another more southerly wobble the last hour since recon.

Looks to be passing south of tge next nhc position.


Aric the 00z models should have the recon data in them right? The further south this goes the more chance the high builds back and Irma misses the trough for OTS right?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2182 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:26 pm

tgenius wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Eyewall convection really starting to become organized again. Ir looks like deepening is about to occur. Also another more southerly wobble the last hour since recon.

Looks to be passing south of tge next nhc position.


Aric the 00z models should have the recon data in them right? The further south this goes the more chance the high builds back and Irma misses the trough for OTS right?



Im assuming the data will be. And yes
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2183 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:27 pm

FLeastcoast wrote:
jaxfladude wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I have not this worried(to put mildly) since 2004/5 and other storms and not to forget about Matthew just last year if ever, Irma is too hard to call(and too early) I am getting prepared just in case... :flag:
This hurricane will be bad to anyone/everyone it impacts(hopefully none)...

Worry rant over: I hope there is a miracle out to sea coming missing all islands and landmasses......

Storm2KStrong



if it was to hit the daytona to jax general area...how bad do you think it would be inland near Ocala?
The horses in ocala would be running for the barn for sure..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2184 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:27 pm

Look at that...microwave of a full EWRC. Beautiful!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2185 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:28 pm

tgenius wrote:What I have to imagine is tomorrow at some point, (could be 11am or 5pm) but SFL will be in that 5 day cone. I'm praying the storm lifts, but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/


South FL will not be in the cone in my estimation. The NHC will either slow the system down or adjust the track to the right to prevent that. They won't put FL on alert unless they're reasonably sure it will happen. Seen it many times.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2186 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:29 pm

otowntiger wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Day 7 forecast from WPC. This is coordinated with NHC so it gives you an idea of what they're thinking beyond day 5.

Image

Looks like they have it a pretty good distance off the FL coast. Kinda surprising based on the trends but certainly a good thing. Looks like they are buying the Euro track. :wink:
Its a 7 day forecast...200 miles either side of the low is fair game at this point
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2187 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:29 pm

Image
Irma opening her eye out again???
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2188 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:31 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:What do you find hilarious?
Records can and are broken.

I hope I can laugh in 8 days

Not laughing at the moment.


I find DT to be funny in general, especially because he rants along with numerous typos in his writeups. Have you ever read or heard him? Also, I do think he has a very valid point about the ridiculously low pressures being shown on the GFS. They have been WAY lower than anything on record that''s ever occurred near the SE coast. Do you really believe them? I don't. Yes, the signal is for an extremely strong storm of cat 4 to possibly an unprecedented in some areas cat 5. But do you really believe the recent runs showing pressures in the 880s just off NC/SC? That's like 50+ mb stronger than anything else on record in that area! Hazel had 938 mb and it was moving very fast..

No. I admit I have not read him. that said, if you do not use models for guidance, why even have them?

Just have a bad feeling, call it the J-model

Peace


I don't blame you due to these scary runs. It is scary to think about. The best thing you can do now is to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully, Irma will surprise us and miss all land.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2189 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:34 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
FLeastcoast wrote:
jaxfladude wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I have not this worried(to put mildly) since 2004/5 and other storms and not to forget about Matthew just last year if ever, Irma is too hard to call(and too early) I am getting prepared just in case... :flag:
This hurricane will be bad to anyone/everyone it impacts(hopefully none)...

Worry rant over: I hope there is a miracle out to sea coming missing all islands and landmasses......

Storm2KStrong



if it was to hit the daytona to jax general area...how bad do you think it would be inland near Ocala?
The horses in ocala would be running for the barn for sure..


Ocala might be my fall back spot. I'm on the coast in Martin county. Ocala would have to be safer for us.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2190 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:34 pm

Been around here a lot of years, but haven't had a potential like this in a while. I thank you all for the hours you spend posting and analyzing! Going to be lurking around here a lot the next few days, as well as finalizing prep stuff, just in case. Jlaud, fire up that generator so maybe she'll stay away!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2192 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:36 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
Irma opening her eye out again???


She appears to be getting a little bit larger now. She just about reached 17N now. How low will she go?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2193 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:39 pm

Stangfriik wrote:The thing that really calms me a bit even being only a couple miles inland is that there are almost 2 miles of trees and buildings between us and the full scope of the intense winds. During Matthew, nsb airport reported a 116mph gust around 2pm and we only had one or two shingles missing from the roof and we were even closer to the coast than the airport and only 2 blocks from the intercostal river when we lived in a rental about a miles from the beach.

Now as I'm sitting on my balcony looking due North which is where most of the winds would come if it rode the coast, heck even east of North and it's miles of trees to buffer the wind. I'm just over 2 miles going due east to the coast. Add more to that when going south east

I'm sure those in more exposed areas, say beachside with less trees, would fare a bit worse, but we won't be leaving unless some monster cat 5 decided to come right over top of us


With Cat 5 winds, the majority of those trees would be flat and you would get major wind damage.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2194 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:41 pm

tgenius wrote:What I have to imagine is tomorrow at some point, (could be 11am or 5pm) but SFL will be in that 5 day cone. I'm praying the storm lifts, but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/


Yes, Matthew was darn close but ultimately turned just in time. Having been through Wilma (eye overhead) in 2005 and Jeanne in 2004 (eyewall), I worry that Irma could pack an even bigger punch IF she landfalls here. Still too early to say if that will happen though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2195 Postby SootyTern » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:43 pm

Michele B wrote:
cycloneye wrote:New video by Levi Cowan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... e-tuesday/



It all makes so much more sense just by listening to Levi for 10 mins than an entire day of watching and reading and trying to analyze the models on my own!


He really is good at explaining things. I like his voice, too, for some reason
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2196 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:43 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Been around here a lot of years, but haven't had a potential like this in a while. I thank you all for the hours you spend posting and analyzing! Going to be lurking around here a lot the next few days, as well as finalizing prep stuff, just in case. Jlaud, fire up that generator so maybe she'll stay away!
Yep, this looks dicey, not sure we can keep this one off our coast..ensembles all.around us like mortar fire, south and west trend, big intensity...seems like a good bet we have a center within 150 miles or less of sofla...maybe the shredder can do something, seems more likely than.24 hours ago
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2197 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:44 pm

drewschmaltz wrote:I was pretty young at the time, but I did surf hurricane Floyd. I remember coming inside to check if it was going to "make the turn" every couple of hours. I also remember news saying something to the effect of "it looks like this is coming right for us, but we have high confidence that this will turn north" I don't remember the setup then, but it definitely evokes memories.


I remember back then that the Forecast Discussion wasn't commonly looked at and had the turn well before the media picked up on it and telling my parents from far away that they would be OK.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2198 Postby BucMan2 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:47 pm

As I continue to see the ensembles possible showing a more west south west movement , how possible is it that Irma could split the state (go up the spine ) or actually move wow across the state?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2199 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:47 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
tgenius wrote:What I have to imagine is tomorrow at some point, (could be 11am or 5pm) but SFL will be in that 5 day cone. I'm praying the storm lifts, but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/


South FL will not be in the cone in my estimation. The NHC will either slow the system down or adjust the track to the right to prevent that. They won't put FL on alert unless they're reasonably sure it will happen. Seen it many times.


definitively disagree with this statement.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2200 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:48 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
FLeastcoast wrote:

if it was to hit the daytona to jax general area...how bad do you think it would be inland near Ocala?
The horses in ocala would be running for the barn for sure..


Ocala might be my fall back spot. I'm on the coast in Martin county. Ocala would have to be safer for us.
You and blown away can carpool to the mountains of ocala...although heading south could end up.better...who knows
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