ATL: HARVEY - Models

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WEatehr channel expert just said the new data they are gathering in the Gonzo flying around the storm is input into the 5 am advisory for tomorrow

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Michael Ventrice posted this op model when it run. Interesting pineye feature.

posting just as a bench mark point.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance hot off the press:

[BigB0882]

Those plots are VERY different. They show it going into TX then getting shunted south. Very few going N and E. That is almost the complete opposite, going S and W. The Euro run tonight will be very telling. If it follows then it means southeast TX and Louisiana are spared completely. It would be a major miss for the Euro to join in after so many other models.

[lisa0825]

00Z guidance hot off the press:

Looks like more models are moving away from the "hook to the east" path after landfall.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Still no game changer there, basically all models are a bulls eye.

[Rgv20]

Donuts any one?? 18zNAM 3KM ....Remember this is not a tropical model so don't freak!

[Steve]

Michael Ventrice posted this op model when it run. Interesting pineye feature.
posting just as a bench mark point.

It looked like the 18z runs were different and closer to the track of the 3km from 00z vs. the Operational (though 3km's 00z intensity was bogus from the get go. 890's? No.) That's Saturday and I think the operational was early. But the 12km 1 hour and 32km 3 hour runs were east and north of the 3km. The Operational, which I don't know where a reliable source for that is, seems to have lined up with what the lower res models were doing before they succumbed today to a much closer to South Texas path. About 80-90 minutes for the next round.

[davidiowx]

00Z guidance hot off the press:

Dang what a difference 12 hours makes. That's a complete 180! I'm still going to wait for the Euro and the morning modes with all data in place.

[ronyan]

TVCN still east.

[mcheer23]

So do the 00Z models coming out have recon data in them or no?

[Steve]

00Z guidance hot off the press:

Looks like more models are moving away from the "hook to the east" path after landfall.

There are a couple that loop back to Mexico. But follow the lines. It's just slower and potentially drags this out until Tues/Wed/Thurs of next week. Whether it regenerates is unknown. But the majority of the components loop around from NW-W-SW-S-E-ENE. Same outcome, a little slower and off the graph.

[RL3AO]

Those plots are VERY different. They show it going into TX then getting shunted south. Very few going N and E. That is almost the complete opposite, going S and W. The Euro run tonight will be very telling. If it follows then it means southeast TX and Louisiana are spared completely. It would be a major miss for the Euro to join in after so many other models.

Except all of the "models" showing the SW turn are completely useless...so...

[Christiana]

The majority of the spaghetti plot models, while now going south still show a turn back to the GOM at the end of the run. Round 2, if there is one, could still be a devastating finale to this fiasco. No one should let their guard down yet, Houston could still have a problem. A big wet one.

[ROCK]

UKMET has never waiver from this area...its stubborn

[ROCK]

The majority of the spaghetti plot models, while now going south still show a turn back to the GOM at the end of the run. Round 2, if there is one, could still be a devastating finale to this fiasco. No one should let their guard down yet, Houston could still have a problem. A big wet one.

I don't think Galveston is out of the woods even if this trends holds...

[davidiowx]

Those plots are VERY different. They show it going into TX then getting shunted south. Very few going N and E. That is almost the complete opposite, going S and W. The Euro run tonight will be very telling. If it follows then it means southeast TX and Louisiana are spared completely. It would be a major miss for the Euro to join in after so many other models.

Except all of the "models" showing the SW turn are completely useless...so...

Aren't they mostly a trend of the GFS? I'll still wait for the Euro later and especially the one tomorrow after lunch.

[Blown Away]

Intensity guidance been consistent with moderate TS or minimal Cat 1... Amazing the 180 with Harvey going SW vs NE after landfall... Wouldn't shock me if Harvey ends up S of the border... Crazy storm...

[RL3AO]

I've said it many times. I despise those types of spaghetti plots. They show useless statistical models which give the impression that any line has an equal chance of happening. It doesn't. Follow the GFS, Euro, Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, HMON, or a consensus of those models (like TCVN). If you have a spaghetti plot of ECMWF/GFS/GEM ensembles then we have something of use.