ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

With the cleared eye since Recon left - 105 kt for the advisory intensity?

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look much better. I noticed in recon's last fix, the western eyewall was starting to fill in. Further intensification underway?

[northjaxpro]

Yes pinhole eye has re emerged. Watch for a period of intensification with Irma now in the short term. She is also beginning to grow in size as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric- hope you are well- please explain why the dive wsw
Is vey important and what implications on the track might it have moving forward? Thank you

The longer and farther south amd west it moves the greater the islands will get impacted.. but the other big thing is ot delays the interaction with the trough near florida..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Whilst executing a southwesterly turn, Irma's eye is clearing out and may be commencing its much-anticipated phase of RI... Impressive. A bump to 105/110 kts isn't far-fetched given the current developments.

[Aric Dunn]

Yes pinhole eye has re emerged. Watch for a period of intensification with Irma now in the short term. She is also beginning to grow in size as well.

It is only a pinhole now.. not a.true pinhole. As recon found a nearly 30 mile wide eye. Its just beginnong to clear out amd deepeen

[rickybobby]

Water is gone at the Walmart in port orange and Daytona.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

If I'm reading this image correctly you can see how far the TS winds are from the center. Looks like 40+ knots well NE of the center.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/3VBOcUl.png

Looks like she pretty close to the forecast points maybe a tad south.

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17100&y=7244&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[weathaguyry]

The most I did here is order a flashlight, but that's probably not even necessary, the only shot of it getting up here would likely be if she took a Donna track

[johngaltfla]

If I'm reading this image correctly you can see how far the TS winds are from the center. Looks like 40+ knots well NE of the center.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

This is somewhat normal for a CV storm of this intensity. Once the shear relaxes, the storm will move more WNW near the Leewards and the flow with TS force winds becoming larger and more uniform. Sadly, if this impacts Florida, it will be a disaster as bad as Harvey. I pray it turns out to sea, but this is becoming a major concern.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The most I did here is order a flashlight, but that's probably not even necessary, the only shot of it getting up here would likely be if she took a Donna track

If we see Monday's cycle of runs complete without any north trend towards you then you're chances would be decreasing. Maybe it's good to be in the bullseye 10 days out lol.

[gatorcane]

Wow Irma looks like she is ready to really ramp up. Saved loop:

[Aric Dunn]

If it continues this it will be at the bottom of all the guidance by morning.. not.good if that happens will be approaching 16 n

[wxman57]

Spent the day cutting sheetrock out of a coworker's house. What a mess. Amazing model forecasts of low pressure. I expect Irma to be a Cat 5 when it reaches the Bahamas. Maybe 140-150 kts. It's going to be bad for them, and very bad if it impacts the east U.S. coast, which is looking like an increasing probability. OK, going relax. I'm going to be very sore tomorrow...

Thanks for your analysis, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. Do you buy the models trending towards the GOM and FL landfall, or do you expect a more northerly turn like the GFS indicates could occur?

I'm thinking SC/NC prime target area. Can't rule out FL - it may be a close call there.

[eastcoastFL]

If I'm reading this image correctly you can see how far the TS winds are from the center. Looks like 40+ knots well NE of the center.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

This is somewhat normal for a CV storm of this intensity. Once the shear relaxes, the storm will move more WNW near the Leewards and the flow with TS force winds becoming larger and more uniform. Sadly, if this impacts Florida, it will be a disaster as bad as Harvey. I pray it turns out to sea, but this is becoming a major concern.

Right. If it were to get to the central or Western Bahamas with a windfield as large as it's forecast to be there would likely be sustained TS winds at least on the Florida east coast.

[weathaguyry]

The most I did here is order a flashlight, but that's probably not even necessary, the only shot of it getting up here would likely be if she took a Donna track

If we see Monday's cycle of runs complete without any north trend towards you then you're chances would be decreasing. Maybe it's good to be in the bullseye 10 days out lol.

Yeah, that was insane when the GFS had multiple runs trying to wipe my area off the face of this earth, but that's over now. I guess if this HAD to hit the East Coast, it would be better if it hit an area that is better suited for hurricanes

[Blown Away]

Eye getting clear now, for sure WSW @235... Near 17N and S of forecast point...