ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Big Easy Breeze]

SLIDER The loss of convection / reorganization seemed to happen right when it slowed down forward speed. Maybe.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=833.5&y=1094&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

*Disclaimer* I wear bifocals. In that frame looks moving less nnw and more north.

Still right on track for 1st landfall in extreme SELA and 2nd somewhere on Miss gulf coast. It is not going anywhere further east than Biloxi. Simple as that. When it makes the change in direction; who knows, but it has not begun.

[ozonepete]

Local met on Fox 8 pointed out that track is too far east. Center is south of Venice now and initial landfall likely on west side of river. Also mentioned the slow down.

They have been saying NHC is wrong all day. My best friend has been sending me texts and videos. Wonder who is right?

Betting against NHC on track is a losing proposition 99% of the time.

[GCANE]

Very strong towers coming in on the SW end of Mobile Bay.

[hipshot]

My tub will not hold water. HELP!

Those gripper things used for opening jars works good too for covering the drain

I'm not familiar with what you folks are talking about, what's with the tub holding water, never been in a hurricane (thank God).

[Big Easy Breeze]

Local met on Fox 8 pointed out that track is too far east. Center is south of Venice now and initial landfall likely on west side of river. Also mentioned the slow down.

They have been saying NHC is wrong all day. My best friend has been sending me texts and videos. Wonder who is right?

Betting against NHC on track is a losing proposition 99% of the time.

No doubt and with no disrespect to any pros on this forum, or others. They have the resources, time...etc., to get it right. That is what they do and only do. Hurricanes are their game.

[Javlin]

SLIDER The loss of convection / reorganization seemed to happen right when it slowed down forward speed. Maybe.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=833.5&y=1094&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

*Disclaimer* I wear bifocals. In that frame looks moving less nnw and more north.

Still right on track for 1st landfall in extreme SELA and 2nd somewhere on Miss gulf coast. It is not going anywhere further east than Biloxi. Simple as that. When it makes the change in direction; who knows, but it has not begun.

I used the goes slapped on the lat/long lines zoom and it looks about 28N90W a guess.

[NDG]

Local met on Fox 8 pointed out that track is too far east. Center is south of Venice now and initial landfall likely on west side of river. Also mentioned the slow down.

They have been saying NHC is wrong all day. My best friend has been sending me texts and videos. Wonder who is right?

Betting against NHC on track is a losing proposition 99% of the time.

Remember that they always go by the cone and not the center line, the Euro and GFS even though they are to the west of the center line of the forecast are on the western edge of the cone, which could still take and that would make the NHC 's track still correct.

[GCANE]

Very nasty helicity just off shore

[artist]

My tub will not hold water. HELP!

Use empty bottles, or buckets to fill with water

[NDG]

I guess the ship is really tall why the recon had to go around it

[Aric Dunn]

definitely some decent amount of mid level dry air has hit the system.. good news.. not enough time to do much else.. likely weaker now going so long with no rebuild of convection.. 75mph

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/916759989150191617

[artist]

My tub will not hold water. HELP!

Those gripper things used for opening jars works good too for covering the drain

I'm not familiar with what you folks are talking about, what's with the tub holding water, never been in a hurricane (thank God).

For flushing, etc. if the water/well system goes down.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/916741009530290182

[artist]

Undecoded Observation (hide)
URNT15 KNHC 072006
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 11 20171007
195600 2734N 09029W 8430 01501 0012 +175 +167 334018 018 017 000 00
195630 2732N 09029W 8429 01500 0010 +175 +168 318018 019 016 001 00
195700 2730N 09029W 8430 01497 0012 +175 +169 315018 019 014 001 00
195730 2728N 09029W 8428 01501 0012 +173 +168 320017 018 015 000 01
195800 2727N 09030W 8431 01498 0013 +174 +167 313017 018 013 001 00
195830 2725N 09030W 8429 01500 0014 +171 +168 307017 017 013 001 01
195900 2723N 09030W 8430 01498 0014 +174 +169 304016 017 014 001 00
195930 2721N 09030W 8432 01498 0012 +175 +169 301015 015 015 000 00
200000 2720N 09031W 8429 01500 0015 +174 +169 297015 016 014 000 00
200030 2718N 09031W 8432 01497 0015 +171 +168 293013 014 014 000 00
200100 2716N 09031W 8429 01501 0015 +171 +166 294012 013 013 001 01
200130 2715N 09031W 8433 01498 //// +169 //// 290012 012 017 000 01
200200 2713N 09031W 8426 01503 //// +170 //// 295011 012 017 000 01
200230 2711N 09032W 8432 01500 0016 +172 +163 286012 012 014 001 00
200300 2710N 09032W 8429 01504 0017 +175 +161 287012 012 014 001 00
200330 2708N 09032W 8430 01502 0018 +172 +164 287013 015 018 000 00
200400 2706N 09032W 8430 01503 0016 +175 +159 285012 012 016 001 00
200430 2705N 09032W 8430 01504 0017 +177 +162 279013 013 015 001 00
200500 2703N 09033W 8429 01504 0017 +175 +165 281013 013 017 001 00
200530 2701N 09033W 8426 01508 0018 +175 +161 279014 014 017 000 00
Select All


URNT15 KNHC 072016
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 12 20171007
200600 2700N 09033W 8420 01520 0022 +177 +156 281015 016 017 000 00
200630 2658N 09033W 8429 01510 0026 +175 +156 276017 019 016 000 00
200700 2656N 09033W 8432 01505 0023 +177 +159 274019 019 016 000 00
200730 2654N 09033W 8429 01509 0022 +180 +158 274019 020 015 000 00
200800 2652N 09033W 8429 01511 0023 +180 +156 271020 021 014 001 00
200830 2650N 09033W 8432 01509 0023 +180 +157 268020 020 014 001 03
200900 2649N 09032W 8429 01509 0019 +184 +155 259019 020 /// /// 03
200930 2649N 09029W 8426 01512 0019 +185 +151 254020 020 014 001 00
201000 2650N 09027W 8432 01508 0021 +181 +154 251021 021 015 001 00
201030 2651N 09025W 8429 01511 0021 +180 +156 250021 022 017 000 00
201100 2652N 09023W 8429 01509 0022 +180 +157 255020 021 017 000 00
201130 2653N 09021W 8430 01508 0023 +175 +158 253021 021 017 001 00
201200 2654N 09019W 8429 01510 0024 +174 +159 251022 023 017 001 00
201230 2655N 09017W 8429 01509 0024 +173 +160 249024 024 018 001 00
201300 2655N 09015W 8430 01506 0023 +174 +160 252023 023 018 001 00
201330 2656N 09012W 8430 01506 0024 +170 +165 254022 023 019 000 03
201400 2658N 09011W 8440 01497 0022 +173 +165 254021 022 018 000 00
201430 2659N 09009W 8428 01501 0017 +172 +165 254023 023 017 001 00
201500 2700N 09008W 8430 01500 0014 +177 +161 251023 023 017 001 00
201530 2702N 09007W 8430 01499 0013 +180 +159 248024 024 016 001 00
Select All

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072026
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 13 20171007
201600 2703N 09005W 8433 01498 0012 +180 +160 246023 024 018 000 00
201630 2704N 09004W 8430 01498 0011 +178 +163 242023 023 018 000 00
201700 2706N 09003W 8430 01499 0012 +175 +166 243023 023 018 000 00
201730 2707N 09001W 8430 01499 0010 +178 +165 243022 023 016 001 00
201800 2709N 09000W 8430 01498 0009 +180 +162 247024 024 017 001 00
201830 2710N 08958W 8430 01498 0009 +180 +157 247025 025 019 000 00
201900 2711N 08957W 8429 01498 0010 +176 +161 248025 026 019 000 00
201930 2713N 08956W 8432 01493 0009 +175 +166 249025 026 020 000 00
202000 2714N 08954W 8429 01496 //// +163 //// 247027 027 021 001 01
202030 2716N 08953W 8433 01491 //// +163 //// 248027 028 022 000 05
202100 2717N 08952W 8429 01494 //// +169 //// 256025 027 023 001 01
202130 2718N 08950W 8432 01490 //// +165 //// 263024 025 022 001 01
202200 2720N 08949W 8428 01495 0009 +166 +161 263024 025 025 000 00
202230 2721N 08948W 8430 01490 0009 +165 +163 264025 026 024 000 00
202300 2722N 08946W 8429 01488 //// +165 //// 258027 028 023 002 01
202330 2724N 08945W 8429 01489 //// +168 //// 262030 030 022 001 01
202400 2725N 08944W 8429 01487 //// +170 //// 261031 032 025 001 01
202430 2727N 08942W 8429 01483 9997 +168 //// 263032 033 025 001 01
202500 2728N 08941W 8429 01484 9994 +173 +164 263034 035 025 001 00
202530 2729N 08940W 8432 01480 9992 +173 +165 260035 035 027 000 00
$$
;

[Sean in New Orleans]

Dry air? Almost looks extra-tropical in the last couple of hours...

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 072031
XXAA 57202 99287 70900 08180 99001 26231 06019 00005 26231 /////
92688 20409 07533 85418 17410 07530 70068 11243 06026 50581 02920
05518 40755 12713 09005 30969 26936 02517 25098 37357 01011 20248
489// 00510 88999 77999
31313 09608 81942
51515 10190 15432
61616 NOAA9 WE16A NATE OB 11
62626 SPL 2866N09001W 1957 MBL WND 06024 AEV 33460 DLM WND 05518
000169 WL150 05520 083 REL 2870N08995W 194249 =
XXBB 57208 99287 70900 08180 00001 26231 11933 20809 22880 20022
33850 17410 44740 13611 55713 12448 66663 10056 77425 09518 88399
12713 99390 13347 11370 16326 22311 24938 33259 35342 44246 37959
55211 45950 66169 585//
21212 00001 06019 11961 05527 22917 07536 33890 08036 44867 07527
55850 07530 66817 07520 77801 05519 88676 06025 99562 04019 11534
05519 22491 04517 33478 06018 44462 04514 55395 09504 66341 00510
77325 02514 88314 01512 99308 03014 11288 02020 22248 01012 33236
04515 44226 04511 55211 03512 66204 36011 77169 04508
31313 09608 81942
51515 10190 15432
61616 NOAA9 WE16A NATE OB 11
62626 SPL 2866N09001W 1957 MBL WND 06024 AEV 33460 DLM WND 05518
000169 WL150 05520 083 REL 2870N08995W 194249 =

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/916763430895411200

[Nimbus]

GE 30 minute water ready silicon works best.
I removed the overflow and glued a piece of plastic water jug over the open hole to add 20 gallons the night before IRMA. My generator probably could run the well pump but it would be a strain and a larger generator isn't very fuel efficient.