ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Impressive build up there.Thks Tolakram
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-48-1-100
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-48-1-100
Last edited by Javlin on Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
radar presentation looking better but the western circ still dry.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Best convective burst so far being led by that tower.


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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data
URNT15 KNHC 072116
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 18 20171007
210600 2913N 08808W 8429 01515 0034 +162 +141 145071 073 037 004 00
210630 2914N 08807W 8431 01510 0039 +164 //// 146058 068 033 005 01
210700 2915N 08805W 8434 01507 0041 +168 //// 145056 062 032 006 05
210730 2916N 08804W 8446 01497 0041 +170 //// 151061 064 030 005 01
210800 2917N 08802W 8422 01523 0036 +165 +158 153071 072 032 005 00
210830 2918N 08801W 8432 01514 0038 +165 +149 153072 073 034 006 00
210900 2919N 08759W 8437 01512 0040 +169 +153 154061 071 030 005 06
210930 2921N 08758W 8429 01518 0040 +167 +153 154068 073 036 007 00
211000 2922N 08757W 8429 01520 0040 +169 +156 154062 063 036 005 00
211030 2923N 08755W 8436 01515 0043 +165 +162 153061 063 034 005 00
211100 2924N 08754W 8427 01526 //// +165 //// 151059 061 033 004 01
211130 2925N 08752W 8432 01523 0045 +164 +160 151060 061 034 003 00
211200 2926N 08751W 8429 01525 0046 +165 +160 154059 060 031 004 00
211230 2928N 08749W 8429 01525 0048 +166 +160 155058 059 032 002 00
211300 2929N 08748W 8430 01529 0049 +168 +158 155056 059 032 003 00
211330 2930N 08746W 8428 01531 0051 +170 +158 154055 055 033 002 00
211400 2931N 08745W 8431 01529 0051 +170 +155 153056 057 032 002 00
211430 2932N 08743W 8432 01532 0055 +166 +158 153057 058 031 002 05
211500 2934N 08744W 8429 01536 //// +162 //// 148054 056 /// /// 05
211530 2934N 08746W 8428 01536 //// +165 //// 151053 054 028 002 05
Select All
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 18 20171007
210600 2913N 08808W 8429 01515 0034 +162 +141 145071 073 037 004 00
210630 2914N 08807W 8431 01510 0039 +164 //// 146058 068 033 005 01
210700 2915N 08805W 8434 01507 0041 +168 //// 145056 062 032 006 05
210730 2916N 08804W 8446 01497 0041 +170 //// 151061 064 030 005 01
210800 2917N 08802W 8422 01523 0036 +165 +158 153071 072 032 005 00
210830 2918N 08801W 8432 01514 0038 +165 +149 153072 073 034 006 00
210900 2919N 08759W 8437 01512 0040 +169 +153 154061 071 030 005 06
210930 2921N 08758W 8429 01518 0040 +167 +153 154068 073 036 007 00
211000 2922N 08757W 8429 01520 0040 +169 +156 154062 063 036 005 00
211030 2923N 08755W 8436 01515 0043 +165 +162 153061 063 034 005 00
211100 2924N 08754W 8427 01526 //// +165 //// 151059 061 033 004 01
211130 2925N 08752W 8432 01523 0045 +164 +160 151060 061 034 003 00
211200 2926N 08751W 8429 01525 0046 +165 +160 154059 060 031 004 00
211230 2928N 08749W 8429 01525 0048 +166 +160 155058 059 032 002 00
211300 2929N 08748W 8430 01529 0049 +168 +158 155056 059 032 003 00
211330 2930N 08746W 8428 01531 0051 +170 +158 154055 055 033 002 00
211400 2931N 08745W 8431 01529 0051 +170 +155 153056 057 032 002 00
211430 2932N 08743W 8432 01532 0055 +166 +158 153057 058 031 002 05
211500 2934N 08744W 8429 01536 //// +162 //// 148054 056 /// /// 05
211530 2934N 08746W 8428 01536 //// +165 //// 151053 054 028 002 05
Select All
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data
URNT15 KNHC 072126
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 19 20171007
211600 2933N 08747W 8433 01529 0053 +170 +158 150052 053 031 002 00
211630 2933N 08749W 8428 01532 0051 +169 +157 149050 051 032 002 00
211700 2932N 08751W 8429 01529 0051 +169 +151 149052 053 032 003 00
211730 2932N 08753W 8429 01528 0050 +165 +156 148052 053 032 003 00
211800 2932N 08755W 8430 01524 0049 +165 +152 149055 056 032 003 00
211830 2931N 08757W 8430 01523 0047 +165 +149 147057 057 032 003 00
211900 2931N 08759W 8432 01522 0047 +163 +155 148056 058 031 003 00
211930 2931N 08801W 8429 01525 0044 +166 +155 150057 058 033 005 00
212000 2930N 08803W 8428 01523 0054 +155 +154 147057 059 032 007 00
212030 2930N 08805W 8430 01517 0059 +149 +149 144060 063 035 013 00
212100 2930N 08807W 8418 01530 0056 +155 +155 145061 063 033 013 00
212130 2930N 08809W 8423 01524 0045 +157 +146 149067 068 033 008 00
212200 2929N 08811W 8432 01513 0041 +160 +136 149068 068 035 006 00
212230 2929N 08813W 8429 01517 0038 +162 +155 143058 067 035 006 00
212300 2929N 08815W 8433 01512 0038 +167 +166 137048 052 036 006 00
212330 2928N 08817W 8435 01507 0047 +166 //// 138051 057 034 012 01
212400 2928N 08819W 8429 01512 0040 +161 //// 136055 058 028 006 01
212430 2928N 08821W 8434 01506 0035 +161 +159 137065 067 029 005 00
212500 2927N 08823W 8425 01515 0034 +161 +136 138069 070 033 004 00
212530 2927N 08825W 8429 01510 0036 +156 +127 136069 069 033 006 00
Select All
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 19 20171007
211600 2933N 08747W 8433 01529 0053 +170 +158 150052 053 031 002 00
211630 2933N 08749W 8428 01532 0051 +169 +157 149050 051 032 002 00
211700 2932N 08751W 8429 01529 0051 +169 +151 149052 053 032 003 00
211730 2932N 08753W 8429 01528 0050 +165 +156 148052 053 032 003 00
211800 2932N 08755W 8430 01524 0049 +165 +152 149055 056 032 003 00
211830 2931N 08757W 8430 01523 0047 +165 +149 147057 057 032 003 00
211900 2931N 08759W 8432 01522 0047 +163 +155 148056 058 031 003 00
211930 2931N 08801W 8429 01525 0044 +166 +155 150057 058 033 005 00
212000 2930N 08803W 8428 01523 0054 +155 +154 147057 059 032 007 00
212030 2930N 08805W 8430 01517 0059 +149 +149 144060 063 035 013 00
212100 2930N 08807W 8418 01530 0056 +155 +155 145061 063 033 013 00
212130 2930N 08809W 8423 01524 0045 +157 +146 149067 068 033 008 00
212200 2929N 08811W 8432 01513 0041 +160 +136 149068 068 035 006 00
212230 2929N 08813W 8429 01517 0038 +162 +155 143058 067 035 006 00
212300 2929N 08815W 8433 01512 0038 +167 +166 137048 052 036 006 00
212330 2928N 08817W 8435 01507 0047 +166 //// 138051 057 034 012 01
212400 2928N 08819W 8429 01512 0040 +161 //// 136055 058 028 006 01
212430 2928N 08821W 8434 01506 0035 +161 +159 137065 067 029 005 00
212500 2927N 08823W 8425 01515 0034 +161 +136 138069 070 033 004 00
212530 2927N 08825W 8429 01510 0036 +156 +127 136069 069 033 006 00
Select All
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data
000
URNT15 KNHC 072136
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 20 20171007
212600 2927N 08827W 8429 01508 0037 +152 +135 136067 068 033 006 00
212630 2926N 08830W 8435 01500 0037 +150 +141 135063 066 032 006 00
212700 2926N 08832W 8429 01507 0035 +153 +153 136061 062 035 006 00
212730 2926N 08834W 8426 01508 0035 +157 +157 137060 061 036 006 00
212800 2925N 08836W 8431 01500 0033 +160 +160 138060 061 035 009 00
212830 2925N 08838W 8429 01503 0027 +164 +164 137057 060 037 009 00
212900 2925N 08840W 8430 01501 0026 +167 +167 136055 056 037 007 00
212930 2924N 08842W 8433 01497 0023 +169 +169 138055 055 038 007 03
213000 2924N 08844W 8428 01500 0022 +170 +170 136053 055 037 007 00
213030 2924N 08846W 8431 01496 0021 +170 //// 135051 053 039 006 01
213100 2923N 08849W 8428 01497 0017 +170 +170 134053 053 038 006 00
213130 2923N 08851W 8430 01496 0017 +170 //// 132055 055 042 006 01
213200 2923N 08853W 8429 01495 0014 +167 //// 131055 055 047 005 05
213230 2922N 08855W 8431 01493 0010 +170 //// 128053 054 045 005 01
213300 2922N 08857W 8429 01492 0007 +170 //// 124052 053 043 004 05
213330 2922N 08859W 8429 01492 //// +168 //// 124052 052 043 005 01
213400 2921N 08901W 8428 01491 0007 +171 //// 124053 053 041 004 01
213430 2921N 08904W 8429 01489 //// +171 //// 123053 054 042 004 01
213500 2921N 08906W 8429 01487 //// +170 //// 121053 054 039 003 01
213530 2920N 08908W 8430 01487 //// +171 //// 118051 053 042 002 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 072136
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 20 20171007
212600 2927N 08827W 8429 01508 0037 +152 +135 136067 068 033 006 00
212630 2926N 08830W 8435 01500 0037 +150 +141 135063 066 032 006 00
212700 2926N 08832W 8429 01507 0035 +153 +153 136061 062 035 006 00
212730 2926N 08834W 8426 01508 0035 +157 +157 137060 061 036 006 00
212800 2925N 08836W 8431 01500 0033 +160 +160 138060 061 035 009 00
212830 2925N 08838W 8429 01503 0027 +164 +164 137057 060 037 009 00
212900 2925N 08840W 8430 01501 0026 +167 +167 136055 056 037 007 00
212930 2924N 08842W 8433 01497 0023 +169 +169 138055 055 038 007 03
213000 2924N 08844W 8428 01500 0022 +170 +170 136053 055 037 007 00
213030 2924N 08846W 8431 01496 0021 +170 //// 135051 053 039 006 01
213100 2923N 08849W 8428 01497 0017 +170 +170 134053 053 038 006 00
213130 2923N 08851W 8430 01496 0017 +170 //// 132055 055 042 006 01
213200 2923N 08853W 8429 01495 0014 +167 //// 131055 055 047 005 05
213230 2922N 08855W 8431 01493 0010 +170 //// 128053 054 045 005 01
213300 2922N 08857W 8429 01492 0007 +170 //// 124052 053 043 004 05
213330 2922N 08859W 8429 01492 //// +168 //// 124052 052 043 005 01
213400 2921N 08901W 8428 01491 0007 +171 //// 124053 053 041 004 01
213430 2921N 08904W 8429 01489 //// +171 //// 123053 054 042 004 01
213500 2921N 08906W 8429 01487 //// +170 //// 121053 054 039 003 01
213530 2920N 08908W 8430 01487 //// +171 //// 118051 053 042 002 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data
000
UZNT13 KWBC 072119
XXAA 57212 99284 70871 08187 99004 28430 14035 00035 28229 14533
92724 22416 15551 85457 19048 16553 70103 09040 17059 50584 02711
17533 40758 11921 18539 30972 26133 19025 25101 37139 19527 20251
50150 20029 88999 77999
31313 09608 82054
51515 10190 15432
61616 NOAA9 WE16A NATE OB 19
62626 SPL 2854N08709W 2110 MBL WND 14540 AEV 33460 DLM WND 17540
003154 WL150 14534 083 REL 2837N08708W 205452 =
XXBB 57218 99284 70871 08187 00004 28430 11885 19610 22850 19048
33760 14857 44671 06639 55625 05415 66534 00308 77405 11320 88294
27333 99197 50750 11154 655//
21212 00004 14035 11996 14531 22990 14537 33963 15045 44927 15551
55850 16553 66667 16560 77625 17533 88582 19543 99489 17033 11381
18542 22304 18523 33154 21544
31313 09608 82054
51515 10190 15432
61616 NOAA9 WE16A NATE OB 19
62626 SPL 2854N08709W 2110 MBL WND 14540 AEV 33460 DLM WND 17540
003154 WL150 14534 083 REL 2837N08708W 205452 =
UZNT13 KWBC 072119
XXAA 57212 99284 70871 08187 99004 28430 14035 00035 28229 14533
92724 22416 15551 85457 19048 16553 70103 09040 17059 50584 02711
17533 40758 11921 18539 30972 26133 19025 25101 37139 19527 20251
50150 20029 88999 77999
31313 09608 82054
51515 10190 15432
61616 NOAA9 WE16A NATE OB 19
62626 SPL 2854N08709W 2110 MBL WND 14540 AEV 33460 DLM WND 17540
003154 WL150 14534 083 REL 2837N08708W 205452 =
XXBB 57218 99284 70871 08187 00004 28430 11885 19610 22850 19048
33760 14857 44671 06639 55625 05415 66534 00308 77405 11320 88294
27333 99197 50750 11154 655//
21212 00004 14035 11996 14531 22990 14537 33963 15045 44927 15551
55850 16553 66667 16560 77625 17533 88582 19543 99489 17033 11381
18542 22304 18523 33154 21544
31313 09608 82054
51515 10190 15432
61616 NOAA9 WE16A NATE OB 19
62626 SPL 2854N08709W 2110 MBL WND 14540 AEV 33460 DLM WND 17540
003154 WL150 14534 083 REL 2837N08708W 205452 =
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Best convective burst so far being led by that tower.
it is going to need a hell of a lot more than that..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:radar presentation looking better but the western circ still dry.
At least it has a partial eyewall, better than nothing and is not weakening like you guys thought earlier.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:There's your north turn...
Bob Breck in NO just posted that too!
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:radar presentation looking better but the western circ still dry.
At least it has a partial eyewall, better than nothing and is not weakening like you guys thought earlier.
it definately has weakened in terms of winds..
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Let's stay on topic AND please remember to watch the language.
If you find a post that offends don't reply, report. Thanks.

If you find a post that offends don't reply, report. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneTrack has cameras up. Buying the Android or IPhone app helps fund his research.
Gulfport, MS: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aKNCVDnVdsP
Long Beach, MS: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/BMES6JU2tCm
Mobile Bay (Battleship Pkwy): http://www.ustream.tv/channel/qB8XNz5uaS8
Gulfport, MS: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aKNCVDnVdsP
Long Beach, MS: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/BMES6JU2tCm
Mobile Bay (Battleship Pkwy): http://www.ustream.tv/channel/qB8XNz5uaS8
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data
URNT15 KNHC 072146
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 21 20171007
213600 2920N 08910W 8429 01485 //// +170 //// 116049 050 040 004 05
213630 2919N 08913W 8430 01475 //// +170 //// 115050 050 /// /// 05
213700 2919N 08915W 8429 01483 //// +168 //// 114050 050 /// /// 05
213730 2919N 08917W 8431 01313 //// +166 //// 112050 051 /// /// 05
213800 2918N 08919W 8425 01318 //// +163 //// 109049 052 /// /// 05
213830 2918N 08921W 8430 01313 //// +167 //// 104046 048 /// /// 05
213900 2918N 08924W 8429 01312 //// +166 //// 102047 047 /// /// 05
213930 2917N 08926W 8430 01312 //// +165 //// 099043 046 /// /// 05
214000 2917N 08928W 8432 01296 //// +170 //// 096042 043 /// /// 05
214030 2917N 08930W 8429 01286 //// +167 //// 095042 042 /// /// 05
214100 2916N 08933W 8429 01284 //// +162 //// 090041 041 /// /// 05
214130 2916N 08935W 8430 01285 //// +165 //// 089040 041 /// /// 05
214200 2915N 08937W 8432 01284 //// +166 //// 088041 041 /// /// 05
214230 2915N 08939W 8429 01286 //// +166 //// 087040 041 /// /// 05
214300 2915N 08942W 8429 01287 9775 +175 +157 087038 039 /// /// 03
214330 2914N 08944W 8429 01290 9772 +188 +147 079033 036 /// /// 03
214400 2914N 08946W 8428 01292 9777 +182 +150 074029 033 /// /// 03
214430 2914N 08948W 8429 01294 9781 +179 +149 069030 031 /// /// 03
214500 2913N 08950W 8432 01291 9863 +175 +149 070030 032 /// /// 03
214530 2913N 08952W 8432 01485 0000 +176 +148 059028 030 033 000 00
Select All
000
URNT15 KNHC 072156
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 22 20171007
214600 2913N 08954W 8430 01487 0004 +169 +152 061027 028 032 001 00
214630 2912N 08957W 8430 01488 0005 +167 +154 058026 028 034 000 00
214700 2912N 08959W 8428 01490 0006 +167 +154 056025 026 035 000 00
214730 2911N 09001W 8426 01492 0004 +167 +153 052025 025 040 004 03
214800 2911N 09003W 8430 01485 0003 +166 +155 052024 025 058 009 03
214830 2910N 09004W 8426 01489 0002 +172 +153 047022 023 /// /// 03
214900 2909N 09003W 8431 01486 0004 +168 +155 043019 021 040 000 00
214930 2908N 09002W 8432 01485 0006 +162 +157 048020 020 033 002 03
215000 2907N 09000W 8428 01488 0006 +165 +158 056021 021 031 000 00
215030 2906N 08959W 8430 01485 0002 +167 +157 052022 023 031 000 00
215100 2905N 08958W 8429 01489 0000 +170 +157 052024 025 032 001 00
215130 2904N 08956W 8432 01481 9996 +173 +154 046024 025 033 001 00
215200 2903N 08955W 8429 01483 9993 +177 +151 049026 028 034 000 00
215230 2902N 08953W 8427 01482 9989 +180 +152 044028 030 035 001 00
215300 2901N 08952W 8432 01475 9983 +185 +149 044030 032 034 001 00
215330 2900N 08950W 8429 01474 9976 +192 +147 044032 033 035 002 00
215400 2859N 08949W 8430 01472 9979 +182 +161 047036 037 033 000 00
215430 2858N 08947W 8429 01473 9979 +176 +168 052035 035 035 001 00
215500 2857N 08946W 8430 01468 9978 +173 +166 053031 034 035 000 00
215530 2856N 08944W 8428 01470 9974 +172 +168 049031 032 035 001 00
$$
;
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 21 20171007
213600 2920N 08910W 8429 01485 //// +170 //// 116049 050 040 004 05
213630 2919N 08913W 8430 01475 //// +170 //// 115050 050 /// /// 05
213700 2919N 08915W 8429 01483 //// +168 //// 114050 050 /// /// 05
213730 2919N 08917W 8431 01313 //// +166 //// 112050 051 /// /// 05
213800 2918N 08919W 8425 01318 //// +163 //// 109049 052 /// /// 05
213830 2918N 08921W 8430 01313 //// +167 //// 104046 048 /// /// 05
213900 2918N 08924W 8429 01312 //// +166 //// 102047 047 /// /// 05
213930 2917N 08926W 8430 01312 //// +165 //// 099043 046 /// /// 05
214000 2917N 08928W 8432 01296 //// +170 //// 096042 043 /// /// 05
214030 2917N 08930W 8429 01286 //// +167 //// 095042 042 /// /// 05
214100 2916N 08933W 8429 01284 //// +162 //// 090041 041 /// /// 05
214130 2916N 08935W 8430 01285 //// +165 //// 089040 041 /// /// 05
214200 2915N 08937W 8432 01284 //// +166 //// 088041 041 /// /// 05
214230 2915N 08939W 8429 01286 //// +166 //// 087040 041 /// /// 05
214300 2915N 08942W 8429 01287 9775 +175 +157 087038 039 /// /// 03
214330 2914N 08944W 8429 01290 9772 +188 +147 079033 036 /// /// 03
214400 2914N 08946W 8428 01292 9777 +182 +150 074029 033 /// /// 03
214430 2914N 08948W 8429 01294 9781 +179 +149 069030 031 /// /// 03
214500 2913N 08950W 8432 01291 9863 +175 +149 070030 032 /// /// 03
214530 2913N 08952W 8432 01485 0000 +176 +148 059028 030 033 000 00
Select All
000
URNT15 KNHC 072156
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 22 20171007
214600 2913N 08954W 8430 01487 0004 +169 +152 061027 028 032 001 00
214630 2912N 08957W 8430 01488 0005 +167 +154 058026 028 034 000 00
214700 2912N 08959W 8428 01490 0006 +167 +154 056025 026 035 000 00
214730 2911N 09001W 8426 01492 0004 +167 +153 052025 025 040 004 03
214800 2911N 09003W 8430 01485 0003 +166 +155 052024 025 058 009 03
214830 2910N 09004W 8426 01489 0002 +172 +153 047022 023 /// /// 03
214900 2909N 09003W 8431 01486 0004 +168 +155 043019 021 040 000 00
214930 2908N 09002W 8432 01485 0006 +162 +157 048020 020 033 002 03
215000 2907N 09000W 8428 01488 0006 +165 +158 056021 021 031 000 00
215030 2906N 08959W 8430 01485 0002 +167 +157 052022 023 031 000 00
215100 2905N 08958W 8429 01489 0000 +170 +157 052024 025 032 001 00
215130 2904N 08956W 8432 01481 9996 +173 +154 046024 025 033 001 00
215200 2903N 08955W 8429 01483 9993 +177 +151 049026 028 034 000 00
215230 2902N 08953W 8427 01482 9989 +180 +152 044028 030 035 001 00
215300 2901N 08952W 8432 01475 9983 +185 +149 044030 032 034 001 00
215330 2900N 08950W 8429 01474 9976 +192 +147 044032 033 035 002 00
215400 2859N 08949W 8430 01472 9979 +182 +161 047036 037 033 000 00
215430 2858N 08947W 8429 01473 9979 +176 +168 052035 035 035 001 00
215500 2857N 08946W 8430 01468 9978 +173 +166 053031 034 035 000 00
215530 2856N 08944W 8428 01470 9974 +172 +168 049031 032 035 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
bella_may wrote:41 mph winds just recorded in mobile
First of many TS gust
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
STAY ON TOPIC
Please people, next time I have to remove off topic posts warnings will be issued. The topic is NATE.
Please people, next time I have to remove off topic posts warnings will be issued. The topic is NATE.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Orlando wrote:The portion that split off around western Cuba and is showing up just off coast of sw Florida--is that part of Nate, or is that the no name storm, or neither one?
That's a lot of heavy thunderstorm activity that's indirectly associated with Nate. It's forming along the strong northward flow and rain bands (or feeder bands) that feed into the hurricane's main circulation.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks to be right on target relative to NHC forecast track. They really are amazing, in what they do.
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