ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2381 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:00 am

Sciencerocks wrote:Why on gods green earth would recon want to go around the storm and hold up the advisory? The northeast quad would be the strongest, wouldn't it?


Since is moving WSW it could be the NW quadrant.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2382 Postby Chris90 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:02 am

Sciencerocks wrote:Why on gods green earth would recon want to go around the storm and hold up the advisory? The northeast quad would be the strongest, wouldn't it?


I'm by no means an expert, but I think based off the fact that it has been moving a little south of west for a while now, the strongest part may be the northwest quad. I think I've read that you are supposed to take the storms current heading and add 90° to the right to find the general area where you should expect maximum intensity usually. I think right now the strongest winds may be just a touch west of due north from the center. Not positive though. Just an amateur guess.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2383 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:05 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040900
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 13 20170904
085030 1609N 05122W 7081 02986 0025 +090 +075 213058 058 038 006 00
085100 1610N 05123W 7081 02981 0016 +093 +074 210058 061 041 006 00
085130 1612N 05125W 7080 02980 0011 +094 +079 210060 062 040 009 00
085200 1613N 05127W 7076 02978 9992 +104 +090 208059 060 040 022 00
085230 1615N 05128W 7076 02968 9991 +095 //// 206065 069 046 022 01
085300 1616N 05130W 6984 03070 9980 +092 //// 221061 063 050 024 01
085330 1617N 05132W 6987 03065 9968 +097 //// 223053 055 053 015 01
085400 1618N 05133W 7030 03011 9959 +104 +102 221051 053 049 013 00
085430 1620N 05135W 7017 03018 9954 +103 //// 221058 061 048 011 01
085500 1621N 05137W 7015 03016 9949 +104 +101 214054 055 049 015 00
085530 1622N 05138W 6997 03028 9935 +102 //// 231059 066 054 030 01
085600 1624N 05140W 7025 02994 9928 +104 //// 228052 053 053 021 01
085630 1625N 05141W 7000 03015 9920 +107 //// 225055 055 052 011 01
085700 1627N 05143W 6999 03009 9913 +107 +104 225055 056 053 006 00
085730 1628N 05144W 6970 03037 9901 +109 +093 227058 061 053 008 00
085800 1629N 05146W 6962 03037 9887 +109 +091 227064 066 053 008 00
085830 1631N 05147W 6988 02991 9868 +117 +094 225069 069 054 006 00
085900 1632N 05149W 6970 02996 9854 +116 +087 223071 072 058 005 00
085930 1634N 05150W 6939 03018 9835 +115 +086 221075 077 062 004 00
090000 1635N 05152W 6936 03005 9813 +112 +107 223079 081 068 007 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2384 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:11 am

Very good radar presentation.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2385 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:11 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040910
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 14 20170904
090030 1637N 05153W 6923 02993 9776 +116 //// 223083 085 072 011 01
090100 1638N 05155W 6922 02964 9741 +118 //// 219088 091 077 019 01
090130 1640N 05156W 6859 03000 9689 +120 //// 216091 093 085 030 01
090200 1641N 05158W 6778 03048 9611 +130 +126 214097 099 101 054 00
090230 1643N 05200W 6795 02961 9539 +132 +130 214071 093 107 038 00
090300 1644N 05201W 6762 02980 9499 +144 +125 215033 039 102 044 03
090330 1645N 05203W 6697 03054 9497 +136 +121 209016 018 026 003 00
090400 1647N 05205W 6735 02999 9492 +136 +121 205004 006 019 001 00
090430 1648N 05207W 6738 02993 9496 +133 +124 084006 009 020 001 00
090500 1649N 05208W 6730 03008 9493 +134 +123 066019 026 020 002 00
090530 1651N 05210W 6735 03008 9494 +140 +121 062034 039 032 002 00
090600 1653N 05212W 6762 02990 9518 +136 +121 059053 062 064 005 00
090630 1654N 05213W 6759 03028 9564 +128 +125 059089 102 093 009 00
090700 1656N 05215W 6747 03106 9646 +112 //// 054114 117 093 006 01
090730 1657N 05216W 6845 03026 9697 +120 +113 051103 106 087 003 00
090800 1659N 05218W 6921 02969 9739 +120 +116 052095 099 080 002 00
090830 1700N 05219W 6891 03039 9776 +117 +114 052089 091 074 003 00
090900 1702N 05221W 6939 02998 9805 +119 +104 050083 084 072 002 00
090930 1703N 05223W 6969 02983 9827 +119 +100 050081 082 073 001 00
091000 1704N 05224W 6955 03019 9844 +119 +096 048080 081 070 004 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2386 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:13 am

thats pretty much a cat 4 now..

090700 1656N 05215W 6747 03106 9646 +112 //// 054114 117 093 006 01
090730 1657N 05216W 6845 03026 9697 +120 +113 051103 106 087 003 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2387 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:14 am

Irma is getting stronger, pressure is dropping with a flight level wind of 117 knots.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2388 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:14 am

and pressure has dropped 10 MB at least.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#2389 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:14 am

949 mb on latest pass. 99 kt FL in SE quad, 107 kt SMFR with very high rain rate. 117 kt FL in NW quad. She sure is strengthening.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2390 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:16 am

I will think that the adjusted surface pressure from extrap reading has to be around 955mb at least.

9493
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2391 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:17 am

recon center fix is alread 16.47 N..

this is getting awfully close to that bottom line for PR>
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2392 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:19 am

it honestly looks like another ERC has started er recon radar..

crazy

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2393 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:22 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040920
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 15 20170904
091030 1706N 05226W 6972 03007 9864 +115 +107 045079 079 070 007 00
091100 1707N 05227W 6971 03021 9875 +117 +096 044082 083 067 008 00
091130 1709N 05228W 6969 03033 9882 +118 +098 047084 086 060 008 00
091200 1710N 05230W 6958 03055 9900 +112 +094 051086 089 055 010 00
091230 1712N 05232W 6989 03028 9926 +103 +093 054088 090 054 010 00
091300 1713N 05233W 6993 03035 9943 +099 +098 056086 087 052 008 00
091330 1715N 05235W 7014 03016 9953 +098 +091 054083 084 049 005 00
091400 1716N 05236W 7005 03032 9962 +098 +082 053083 084 048 003 00
091430 1718N 05238W 7014 03029 9968 +098 +088 055079 080 047 002 00
091500 1719N 05239W 7026 03021 9971 +101 +083 058079 079 043 002 00
091530 1721N 05241W 7029 03023 9969 +110 +067 061078 078 043 003 00
091600 1722N 05242W 7023 03033 9977 +110 +057 061076 076 042 002 00
091630 1724N 05244W 7026 03033 9973 +115 +060 060074 075 043 003 00
091700 1725N 05246W 7050 03007 9984 +108 +078 063071 073 040 003 00
091730 1727N 05247W 6985 03092 9997 +100 +068 067069 070 041 003 00
091800 1729N 05249W 7011 03066 0006 +096 +077 068069 070 038 002 00
091830 1730N 05251W 6983 03102 0014 +092 +081 068069 069 036 003 00
091900 1732N 05252W 7050 03023 0011 +101 +080 067069 070 035 002 00
091930 1733N 05254W 7063 03011 0016 +103 +076 068071 072 035 001 00
092000 1735N 05256W 7061 03018 0013 +106 +077 069069 069 033 002 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2394 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:29 am

Dropsonde measured 951mb at the surface with 8 knot winds.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2395 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:32 am

Aric Dunn wrote:it honestly looks like another ERC has started er recon radar..

crazy

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz



That appears to be what is going on.

Maybe it is still being hit with northerly shear and it is forcing some dry air into the core?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2396 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:33 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040930
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 16 20170904
092030 1737N 05257W 7019 03072 0016 +105 +075 069069 069 035 002 00
092100 1738N 05259W 7081 03004 0024 +107 +072 067068 069 035 004 00
092130 1740N 05301W 7063 03023 0025 +107 +074 059065 067 038 021 00
092200 1741N 05302W 7069 03016 0018 +106 //// 048051 067 047 036 01
092230 1743N 05304W 7078 03014 0032 +100 //// 046046 051 052 029 05
092300 1744N 05305W 7085 03006 0036 +101 //// 046046 051 036 016 01
092330 1746N 05307W 7082 03014 0038 +102 //// 053056 058 032 005 01
092400 1747N 05308W 7062 03039 0043 +101 //// 056057 058 027 002 01
092430 1749N 05310W 7092 03007 0046 +103 +097 057055 056 028 002 00
092500 1750N 05311W 7109 02987 0043 +109 +094 054051 053 029 003 00
092530 1752N 05313W 7083 03023 0046 +106 //// 061051 053 030 003 01
092600 1753N 05315W 7094 03007 0046 +107 +095 061049 050 028 002 00
092630 1755N 05316W 7094 03010 0045 +109 +093 061048 049 029 001 00
092700 1756N 05318W 7093 03011 0043 +113 +091 062048 048 028 001 00
092730 1758N 05319W 7093 03014 0044 +115 +077 062048 048 028 001 00
092800 1759N 05321W 7093 03015 0042 +118 +068 064047 048 028 001 00
092830 1801N 05323W 7093 03017 0045 +119 +054 063045 047 028 001 00
092900 1802N 05324W 7093 03014 0046 +114 +083 061045 046 027 001 03
092930 1802N 05327W 7094 03014 0042 +117 +091 060046 047 /// /// 03
093000 1800N 05328W 7094 03014 0044 +116 +092 058047 048 028 002 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2397 Postby painkillerr » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:33 am

Aric Dunn wrote:recon center fix is alread 16.47 N..

this is getting awfully close to that bottom line for PR>


Yup...St. Thomas looks like its going to get ripped and I'm headed there today.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2398 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:35 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
tgenius wrote:What I have to imagine is tomorrow at some point, (could be 11am or 5pm) but SFL will be in that 5 day cone. I'm praying the storm lifts, but reality is its been 12 years since a storm in SFL, and the unfortunate reality is you can only be lucky for so long. :/


South FL will not be in the cone in my estimation. The NHC will either slow the system down or adjust the track to the right to prevent that. They won't put FL on alert unless they're reasonably sure it will happen. Seen it many times.



Well, S FL not in the cone yet this morning, but may be by tonight. Certainly not seeing any indication of it pulling up, east and clear.

I mentioned a while back about getting in to the GOM which now looks more likely. Almost a possibility of missing FL to the SW.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2399 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:36 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:it honestly looks like another ERC has started er recon radar..

crazy

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz



That appears to be what is going on.

Maybe it is still being hit with northerly shear and it is forcing some dry air into the core?


No shear, may still some slight dry air entrained into its coc otherwise we would had not seen the pressure drop 10 mb in less than 10 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#2400 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:44 am

000
URNT15 KWBC 040940
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 17 20170904
093030 1758N 05328W 7093 03017 0047 +115 +089 058048 048 030 001 00
093100 1755N 05328W 7092 03018 0044 +117 +083 058046 047 030 002 00
093130 1753N 05328W 7093 03014 0042 +119 +062 056045 046 030 001 00
093200 1751N 05329W 7093 03014 0046 +114 +068 052045 045 030 001 00
093230 1748N 05329W 7093 03012 0039 +120 +062 051046 047 033 001 00
093300 1746N 05329W 7092 03014 0043 +116 +066 046044 044 032 002 00
093330 1744N 05330W 7093 03011 0046 +112 +078 043044 044 033 002 00
093400 1741N 05331W 7093 03012 0043 +116 +068 044045 046 033 001 00
093430 1739N 05331W 7093 03007 0043 +112 +073 045043 044 032 001 00
093500 1737N 05332W 7094 03008 0043 +112 +081 043042 043 031 001 00
093530 1734N 05333W 7093 03008 0042 +112 +081 040040 040 032 001 00
093600 1732N 05334W 7093 03009 0042 +112 +088 034039 039 031 001 00
093630 1730N 05335W 7094 03005 0036 +115 +082 033041 041 031 001 00
093700 1727N 05336W 7093 03010 0038 +116 +071 036041 041 033 001 00
093730 1725N 05336W 7093 03007 0040 +114 +065 039040 041 031 001 00
093800 1723N 05337W 7092 03010 0049 +108 +069 040039 040 030 002 00
093830 1721N 05338W 7093 03007 0050 +106 +075 038039 040 031 001 00
093900 1718N 05339W 7094 03006 0045 +109 +076 036040 041 032 001 00
093930 1716N 05340W 7094 03007 0042 +111 +076 030040 041 030 002 00
094000 1714N 05341W 7093 03008 0041 +114 +070 028039 041 031 001 03
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