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TheStormExpert wrote:RL3AO wrote:Hammy wrote:So if this doesn't become a tropical cyclone, would the next system be TD3? And does anybody know if we'll have post-storm reports on them?
Yes, the next system would be TD3 no matter what. I'm not sure if there will be reports on PTCs that don't develop.
Why would it be TD3? This isn't an official TD.
Hurricane Andrew wrote:What on earth is a potential tropical cyclone?
The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories
on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose
the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not
possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in
advisory products and are numbered from the same list as
depressions. Because of the threat to the Windward Islands,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and
the appropriate warnings have been issued by the respective
governments in the Windward Islands. Advisory packages will continue
until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas
sufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical
cyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.
Hurricane Andrew wrote:What on earth is a potential tropical cyclone?
cycloneye wrote:The recon mission for Monday afternoon could be very interesting.
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Two's small size makes it susceptible to rapid intensification if deep convection continues firing over the circulation like it is currently. I think most of us remember Danny 15, a storm that wasn't supposed to develop, then wasn't forecast to peak above 45kt, but ultimately became a small 110kt storm. Models indicate Two may be near hurricane intensity as it's approaching the islands.
hurricanes1234 wrote:tatertawt24 wrote:If it organizes in time, would that technically be considered a landfall/direct hit for Trinidad? Pretty cool!
More like scary!
We down here are so unaccustomed to storm systems that it's difficult to ascertain what exactly could happen. Unfortunately, many areas flood easily with just regular inclement weather, let alone a named system. I'll be watching this closer than ever now.
Hammy wrote:Cloud flow indicates there's still no signs of closing off--could be moving too fast at the moment.
johngaltfla wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:tatertawt24 wrote:If it organizes in time, would that technically be considered a landfall/direct hit for Trinidad? Pretty cool!
More like scary!
We down here are so unaccustomed to storm systems that it's difficult to ascertain what exactly could happen. Unfortunately, many areas flood easily with just regular inclement weather, let alone a named system. I'll be watching this closer than ever now.
Good luck! None of the southern islands are prepared for anything more than a minor Tropical Storm so any slow movers with lots of wind and rain are major league trouble. I hope there is not much damage down there and everyone is okay!
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