CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

From GOES-16

[1900hurricane]

If you measure from the center of the eye like often done with smaller tropical cyclones, you might actually be able to sneak an instantaneous DT of 7.0 out of it.

[Ntxw]

To me this is the best looking EPAC storm since Patricia. Could probably give Matthew a run for his money.

[Kingarabian]

From GOES-16

[img]http://i67.tinypic.com/2ymycd1.gif[/mg]

Looks like an eye of a cat.5...

[hurricanes1234]

And still no sign of an eyewall replacement.

[Ntxw]

From GOES-16

[img]http://i67.tinypic.com/2ymycd1.gif[/mg]

Looks like an eye of a cat.5...

Yeah, because of it's relative smaller size I wonder of estimates are off. Of course without recon we likely won't know.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/886013911052451840

[CrazyC83]

Might be able to make a case for 130 kt there, given that Dvorak tends to often underestimate smaller storms at least slightly.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. Wow...

[Yellow Evan]

Quite close to T7.0.

[1900hurricane]

And still no sign of an eyewall replacement.

Well, I wouldn't say that.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 10:40:59 N Lon : 120:10:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 944.4mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +15.2C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EYE

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 231538 UTC
Lat : 10:46:44 N Lon : 120:13:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 944.4mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +16.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[1900hurricane]

SAB good for a 6.5.

TXPZ29 KNES 150025
TCSENP

A. 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 10.7N

D. 120.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN B SURROUNDED BY W RESULTS IN 5.5. 1.0
ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT BRINGS THE DT TO 6.5. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE PT IS 6.0. FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO

[CrazyC83]

SAB good for a 6.5.

TXPZ29 KNES 150025
TCSENP

A. 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 10.7N

D. 120.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN B SURROUNDED BY W RESULTS IN 5.5. 1.0
ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT BRINGS THE DT TO 6.5. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE PT IS 6.0. FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO

We may be splitting hairs but I see the first hints of CMG there. Certainly good enough to go on the high end of T6.5 - probably 130 kt, maybe 135 kt is also reasonable.

[Kingarabian]

And still no sign of an eyewall replacement.

Well, I wouldn't say that.

[img]https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/EPAC/06E.FERNANDA/amsub/89/1degreeticks/20170714.2322.noaa19.x.89_1deg.06EFERNANDA.110kts-960mb-107N-1193W.98pc.jpg[img]

It's been hinting at one since the most recent AMSU microwave pass. Hasn't reflected on visible though.

[Kingarabian]

Interested to see what the NHC does here. If it's Stewart or Avila we could see 135kts.

[Yellow Evan]

We may be splitting hairs but I see the first hints of CMG there. Certainly good enough to go on the high end of T6.5 - probably 130 kt, maybe 135 kt is also reasonable.

CMG is not a requirement for T7.0. A thick W ring (thicker than it is right now) and a WMG eye is, however.

[Hurricane Andrew]

SAB good for a 6.5.

TXPZ29 KNES 150025
TCSENP

A. 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 10.7N

D. 120.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN B SURROUNDED BY W RESULTS IN 5.5. 1.0
ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT BRINGS THE DT TO 6.5. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE PT IS 6.0. FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO

We may be splitting hairs but I see the first hints of CMG there. Certainly good enough to go on the high end of T6.5 - probably 130 kt, maybe 135 kt is also reasonable.

CMG?

[Yellow Evan]

Interested to see what the NHC does here. If it's Stewart or Avila we could see 135kts.

Avila is usually way too conservative to go 135 knots.

[Ntxw]

CMG?

Cold Medium Gray on Dvorak. Usually an indicator of very cold cloud tops. If you can get a ring of CMG you can make a solid case for cat 5 estimates.

[Kingarabian]

Whats going on here? EWRC looks halfway through and no resemblance on visible or infrared imagery.

Edit: Also classic pinhole. Those winds near that eyewall have to be extremely strong.