ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I am not questioning the potential interaction with Hispaniola. The overall compilation of runs shown above mainly west movement component turning w-nw at or just beyond he longitude I specified earler.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

Interesting, as I believe the GFS was showing this happening early today, maybe it wasn’t so far off after all.

Yes, the 12z and 18z GFS were showing the wave out front of 99L becoming dominant. HWRF also appears to show it as well.

[floridasun78]

right now tooo far to know what will by next thur i remeber other system in path showing death wise on Florida and show moving out to sea or more north of florida

[Hammy]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

Interesting, as I believe the GFS was showing this happening early today, maybe it wasn’t so far off after all.

That would be the western convection?

[northjaxpro]

I am not saying that is what is going to happen. Just what the current set of runs above are showing for now. There will be many changes to these runs going forward.

[Alyono]

looks to have a LONG ways to go to organize. European solution most reasonable at this time as conditions will likely become less favorable as this approaches the Caribbean

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening,

I always enjoy ur post nothernjaxpro, thank you for your input. We have a ways to go nothing as of yet has developed so we wait and see. Once something does develop the models should latch on and model watching we go,

[tailgater]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

I'm pretty sure that is a forecast position and strength of 99L in 24 hrs , but I'm not saying the disturbance a little farther west will not take over.

[cycloneye]

New surface analysis at 00z has a new low around 28W and the one best track was following dissipates.

[AutoPenalti]

New surface analysis at 00z has a new low around 28W and the one best track was following dissipates.

Any implications as to future track?

[SFLcane]

looks to have a LONG ways to go to organize. European solution most reasonable at this time as conditions will likely become less favorable as this approaches the Caribbean

Ok.. hold on... So your saying the NHC is wrong with giving this 80% chance of develop in 5 days? Everything other then some dry air I've seen shows favorable conditions await this wave ahead. In regards to the EURO well it's Either playing catch up or the GFS will eventually fold. Here is a tweet from Lowry earlier  https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/893173124790972416

[Alyono]

80% may be reasonable for any type of development

However, I am not convinced this makes it past moderate TS at this time. I also suspect it will weaken as it approaches the Caribbean due to the SAL unless the wave over Africa with a lot of convection can block the SAL outbreak

[AutoPenalti]

Shear may relax but that doesnt mean dry air will.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/893299298011668482

[Steve]

New global models will be running within the hour. I'm sure there will be a lot of sleepless nights for people starting next week. Matthew '16 was the closest we have gotten recently to the potential 99L has.

[northjaxpro]

Evening,

I always enjoy ur post nothernjaxpro, thank you for your input. We have a ways to go nothing as of yet has developed so we wait and see. Once something does develop the models should latch on and model watching we go,

I agree. Thanks for your kind words. I do this posting on my spare time on this site. I love coming on Storm2K, been a member since 2010. Great site for people like me and others who do this for a living and or for all weather enthusiasts from abroad.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[txwatcher91]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

Interesting, as I believe the GFS was showing this happening early today, maybe it wasn’t so far off after all.

That would be the western convection?

Earlier today it showed the surface low bouncing around between the eastern area, right near the African coast, and further west near where the new low is. It took about 24 to 36 hours before it began slowly consolidating around the western low. That’s what appears to be happening so far, so the GFS may be on to something.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good to see you on Steve,

Hopefully not but yes I do remember Mathew a nail biter for us here in S. FLA.

[bamajammer4eva]

CFSV2

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/893309644336238592