ATL: HARVEY - Models

[drezee]

Euro is no joke on this run intense GOM hurricane. Says the second system has eyes on land too

[AxaltaRacing24]

This started out as a chill run but after 168 hrs this gets real serious. If this could find a favorable environment in the GOM this run then look out.

[TheStormExpert]

Question does the 00z Euro show the same unfavorable upper-air environment as does the 00z GFS shows?

[drezee]

Question does the 00z Euro show the same unfavorable upper-air environment as does the 00z GFS shows?

No, has a upper low behind it ventilating the hurricane. Nice outflow channel...bad run for gulf coast

[Cpv17]

Looks like a high pressure over the Carolinas according to the Euro?

[northjaxpro]

Wow, on this run EURO really strengthens the Bermuda ridge axis, extending it west to the Lower MS River Valley region.

Should this verify, this system would definitely become a major threat to anywhere along the GOM. Still lots of time to watch the models and this will change in details I am sure as time progresses.

Just only one run of the 0Z EURO, but it is giving a pretty good clue that the odds are increasing with time that the recurve scenario is becoming more unlikely as time progresses.

Also, on the 0Z run , EURO is showing another potential tropical cyclone in the MDR coming down the pike as we move into the end of this month.

[TheStormExpert]

I never had a warm feeling about the name Harvey this season so let's hope it's just another case where the models are overly enthusiastic.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro has this about to enter a wide open GOM as an intensifying TC.

I'm skeptical about it intensifying while just barely skirting offshore the south coast of Cuba.

[AtlanticWind]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 63.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.08.2017 120 15.2N 67.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 19.08.2017 132 16.0N 71.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.08.2017 144 16.1N 75.0W 1005 33

Canadian DISSIPATES entirely

May be yet ANOTHER false alarm from the models

What a terrible year to be a global model.

it's like back to the early 2000s

Think we should give the models a break on this one, looks like a complex situation for genesis.

[drezee]

Even though 240 is a joke to forecast, at face value....it either stalls in the Gulf of Mexico or gets buried into Mexico under the ridge...

[Kingarabian]

Euro has this about to enter a wide open GOM as an intensifying TC.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/aFz7U5d.gif[img]

I'm skeptical about it intensifying while just barely skirting offshore the south coast of Cuba.

Yeah on the high RES it intensifies it over land a couple of times.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Wow, on this run EURO really strengthens the Bermuda ridge axis, extending it west to the Lower MS River Valley region.

Should this verify, this system would definitely become a major threat to anywhere along the GOM. Still lots of time to watch the models and this will change in details I am sure as time progresses.

Just only one run of the 0Z EURO, but it is giving a pretty good clue that the odds are increasing with time that the recurve scenario is becoming more unlikely as time progresses.

Also, on the 0Z run , EURO is showing another potential tropical cyclone in the MDR coming down the pike as we move into the end of this month.

It enters the GOM then starts moving west at hour 240.

[northjaxpro]

12z Euro control run also develops it and takes it into South Padre Island, TX in about 2 weeks.

Well, I bumped this post after I remembered seeing it yesterday morning .

The latest 0Z EURO 192 hours actually shows that this scenario is quite a distinct possibility if the ridge indeed builds in that strong on that latest run.

[jlauderdal]

Even though 240 is a joke to forecast, at face value....it either stalls in the Gulf of Mexico or gets buried into Mexico under the ridge...

240 is ok looking for development but i wouldnt suggest putting up shutters based on it..

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS has more members developing it. However there's a sizable shift WSW in the mean track. They have a pretty stout ridge in place with a lot of members taking it into Mexico, including the control. Still far out of course.

[Bluefrog]

Can someone post the euro for me please ....

[AJC3]

Can someone post the euro for me please ....

There is some cross posting going on here between this thread and the one for the disturbance just in front of it. You can find the Euro graphics in that thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118963

As an aside, unless we see a "92L" designation for the lead system later today, the two threads will in all likelihood be combined, with most of the posts from that thread being merged into this one. I've been wrong before, but given the verbiage of the TWOs, I don't foresee a new invest area being declared. Moreover, none of the models are showing more than one cyclone developing from this area.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS much weaker so far. Hours 84-144:

[WAcyclone]

Today's 00z EPS looks quite a bit stronger with a slight northward shift compared to yesterday's 12z run. Both images have been shared by Michael Ventrice through Twitter.

[RL3AO]

Overnight Model Runs - Saved in first post of the thread.

ECMWF 00Z Aug 14:


GFS 00Z Aug 14: