ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Please don't be a pinhole. Please don't be a pinhole

[Cunxi Huang]

Please don't be a pinhole. Please don't be a pinhole

Pinhole eye doesn't matter if there is a recon.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Please don't be a pinhole. Please don't be a pinhole

Pinhole eye doesn't matter if there is a recon.

I'm talking about possible signs of another RI period. If that indeed is a pinhole, this could become a major by morning.

[Frank P]

So nice to see that eye, will be much easier to track forward motion tonight on the IR... what a scary beautiful sight to behold...

[Kingarabian]

SW/S/SE quads still irritating me:

[Cunxi Huang]

what time will the next plane be IN the system?? anyone know?

around 2300z, which is 6:00 pm CDT. btw the flight is ready to take off NOW.

[SunnyThoughts]

If there is a pin hole eye now, maybe it will undergo erc before landfall and disrupt it a lot. Crossing my fingers.

[tolakram]

If there is a pin hole eye now, maybe it will undergo erc before landfall and disrupt it a lot. Crossing my fingers.

That could be bad as it broadens the windfield and can bring even more surge to more areas, not to mention rain.

[GCANE]

That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.

[Aric Dunn]

Ooohhh boy here we go..

Push cat 3 by 2 am.

[Blinhart]

I have a problem with the intensification models showing it getting down to almost TD strength, before hitting Louisiana, I really have a hard time seeing this getting below hurricane strength even if it does go inland 30 to 40 miles (which is the most I see it going) with the Brown Ocean Effect being a possibility.

[Alyono]

have to watch out for rapid intensification if it moves back over the water. Baroclinic forcing may allow it

Would that not be somewhat dependent on its inner core and the state of it?

Certainly becoming more possible that it comes back over the water, and the flooding situation if that happens is scary!

nope. Baroclinic intensification can occur even without an inner core. System may not be very tropical, however

[tolakram]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[KWT]

Eye is defiantly starting to become more established, starting to peek out on the IR now as well and on the Sat.imagery it is slowly opening up nicely.

Convection is also still wrapping around quite nicely as well. I think we are about to see our next phase of strengthening and just as we are approaching the evening hours. I think tonight could see our first major hurricane of the year.

[Alyono]

SW/S/SE quads still irritating me:

best upper winds occur tomorrow

[jdjaguar]

That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.

I gather 3500 CAPE air adds energy to this intensifying storm?

Forgive my naivety, what exactly is CAPE air, if you don't mind my asking?

[Dave C]

Brownsville radar long range really has it now, seems pretty straight nw short term.

[KWT]

SW/S/SE quads still irritating me:

Yeah its still not great, however its well worth noting that the inner core is the best is looked all day and really that is what counts in terms of the intensity. I've seen some questionable systems be much stronger than you'd expect due to having a tight inner core.

(I seem to remember a SPAC system that barely had any convection outside of its inner CDO core and a small feeder band and it was a decent cat-4, you'd never have thought it though looking at the overall package.

[hd44]

Harvey developing a very small eye similar to Charley.