ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 52.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 16.7N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 19.6N 66.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 21.0N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 22.0N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


So much for 16.8 being the bottom.

[WmE]

Looks like a moat of dry air. Did the VDM show a secondary wind maximum?

[hiflyer]

and me to Ft Liquordale on the 8th....hmmmmm Windshield wiper models this far out is more the norm so need to wait just 48hrs to get a good handle but the newer TVXX models are intriguing.

[NDG]

First visible.

[Hurricaneman]

First visible.

Clear ewrc on that satellite image

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 040950
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 18 20170904
094030 1711N 05341W 7092 03010 0043 +112 +073 029041 042 031 001 00
094100 1709N 05341W 7094 03005 0043 +111 +075 026042 042 031 001 00
094130 1706N 05341W 7093 03008 0045 +109 +080 026044 045 031 001 00
094200 1704N 05341W 7093 03009 0045 +109 +076 023045 045 029 001 00
094230 1702N 05341W 7093 03008 0045 +109 +076 022045 046 028 002 00
094300 1659N 05342W 7093 03008 0042 +112 +066 019044 045 028 002 00
094330 1657N 05342W 7093 03006 0043 +110 +073 018042 042 029 001 00
094400 1654N 05342W 7093 03005 0043 +109 +073 017040 041 030 002 00
094430 1652N 05342W 7093 03008 0050 +104 +072 017038 039 030 001 00
094500 1649N 05342W 7094 03004 0047 +105 +083 013039 040 029 001 00
094530 1647N 05342W 7093 03007 0047 +105 +081 013039 040 030 002 00
094600 1644N 05342W 7093 03006 0047 +107 +074 010040 040 028 002 00
094630 1642N 05342W 7093 03006 0047 +107 +073 010041 041 027 001 00
094700 1639N 05342W 7085 03017 0049 +105 +074 004040 042 027 001 00
094730 1637N 05342W 7076 03027 0049 +102 +093 003041 043 026 001 00
094800 1635N 05342W 7092 03010 0048 +103 +093 002039 041 026 002 00
094830 1632N 05342W 7123 02971 0048 +105 +085 000040 041 025 002 00
094900 1630N 05342W 7064 03037 0047 +104 +076 357037 038 027 001 00
094930 1627N 05341W 7055 03052 0047 +105 +066 357036 037 026 001 00
095000 1625N 05341W 7055 03053 0050 +104 +065 357036 036 025 001 00

[NDG]

Yeap, pressure down to 951mb, incredible drop during the night.

URNT12 KWBC 040948
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 04/09:04:14Z
B. 16 deg 47 min N
052 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2674 m
D. 107 kt
E. 135 deg 9 nm
F. 212 deg 99 kt
G. 126 deg 8 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 12 C / 3063 m
J. 15 C / 3284 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0211A IRMA OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 117 KT 315 / 12 NM 09:06:56Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 135 / 08 KTS

[cycloneye]

GOES-16 sunrise over Irma.

 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/904643578814750720

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 041000
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 19 20170904
095030 1622N 05341W 7054 03055 0049 +104 +067 355037 038 024 001 00
095100 1620N 05340W 7056 03053 0049 +103 +080 354038 038 023 001 00
095130 1617N 05340W 7060 03047 0049 +103 +076 351038 038 023 001 00
095200 1615N 05340W 7058 03049 0049 +104 +075 350037 038 025 001 00
095230 1612N 05340W 7057 03051 0050 +103 +062 351038 039 024 001 00
095300 1610N 05339W 7058 03049 0055 +098 +076 351037 038 024 001 00
095330 1608N 05339W 7057 03051 0049 +105 +059 351038 039 024 001 00
095400 1605N 05339W 7056 03052 0055 +100 +057 348038 038 023 002 00
095430 1603N 05338W 7055 03053 0055 +099 +065 347038 039 023 002 00
095500 1600N 05338W 7057 03052 0046 +108 +065 344037 038 025 001 00
095530 1558N 05338W 7059 03050 0047 +109 +058 342038 038 023 001 00
095600 1555N 05337W 7059 03051 0049 +108 +050 340036 037 022 001 00
095630 1553N 05337W 7055 03055 0052 +105 +055 341035 035 024 000 00
095700 1551N 05337W 7058 03054 0052 +107 +052 340033 034 023 001 00
095730 1548N 05337W 7058 03054 0052 +110 +032 336033 034 024 001 00
095800 1546N 05336W 7060 03053 0055 +102 +080 334035 035 024 001 00
095830 1544N 05336W 7055 03058 0056 +101 +082 330032 034 022 001 00
095900 1541N 05336W 7056 03057 0054 +104 +086 329029 030 021 001 00
095930 1539N 05336W 7057 03056 0054 +104 +086 327030 031 020 001 00
100000 1537N 05336W 7058 03057 0058 +101 +085 329031 031 021 002 00

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think that maybe this ends up in the western Caribbean before the next weakness picks this up by going through Cuba

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 041010
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 20 20170904
100030 1535N 05337W 7058 03058 0057 +103 +083 327032 033 019 002 00
100100 1532N 05336W 7060 03059 0057 +104 +090 319029 029 016 003 03
100130 1532N 05334W 7058 03059 0055 +106 +090 321028 028 /// /// 03
100200 1534N 05332W 7048 03067 0053 +105 +085 318029 030 023 001 00
100230 1535N 05331W 7071 03038 0048 +107 +088 314032 033 023 000 03
100300 1537N 05330W 7163 02931 0056 +106 +097 312032 033 023 001 00
100330 1538N 05328W 7066 03041 0053 +104 +089 317034 035 020 002 00
100400 1540N 05328W 7063 03042 0051 +105 +078 326036 037 023 002 00
100430 1542N 05326W 7017 03099 0052 +103 +053 323036 037 018 002 00
100500 1543N 05325W 7059 03051 0050 +103 +071 324035 037 019 001 03
100530 1544N 05323W 7091 03013 0044 +112 +058 322034 035 021 001 00
100600 1546N 05322W 7083 03018 0046 +107 +059 321035 035 021 001 00
100630 1547N 05320W 7082 03017 0051 +100 +071 322035 035 023 001 00
100700 1549N 05319W 7082 03015 0045 +103 +074 318035 036 021 001 00
100730 1550N 05317W 7082 03014 0045 +101 +073 317036 036 023 001 00
100800 1552N 05316W 7081 03013 0044 +101 +078 316035 036 023 001 00
100830 1553N 05314W 7081 03013 0040 +104 +068 318038 039 024 001 00
100900 1555N 05313W 7082 03009 0044 +099 +073 321041 043 025 001 00
100930 1556N 05311W 7083 03006 0035 +104 +072 320042 043 024 002 00
101000 1558N 05310W 7082 03005 0031 +105 +074 317043 044 024 002 00

[Sciencerocks]

[EyELeSs1]

Looks like we might get a near direct hit here in Antigua. Hopefully nothing like Luis in 1995!

Fady, are you here??

[northjaxpro]

Wow, beautiful first visible satelitte shot of Irma.

[fd122]

Looks like we might get a near direct hit here in Antigua. Hopefully nothing like Luis in 1995!

Fady, are you here??

No but following it regardless.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 041020
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 21 20170904
101030 1559N 05308W 7081 03003 0033 +101 +080 315045 046 025 001 00
101100 1601N 05307W 7084 02999 0029 +102 +080 312044 045 025 002 00
101130 1602N 05305W 7082 02997 0029 +098 +084 310044 045 027 002 00
101200 1603N 05304W 7075 03007 0033 +094 +086 306040 042 030 001 00
101230 1605N 05302W 7062 03018 0024 +097 +089 314034 037 029 002 00
101300 1606N 05301W 7061 03018 0019 +101 +077 323041 042 031 002 00
101330 1608N 05259W 7091 02978 0015 +105 +074 323042 044 032 003 00
101400 1609N 05258W 7062 03008 0008 +103 +089 325044 045 032 004 00
101430 1611N 05256W 7019 03056 0000 +104 +086 326046 047 033 003 00
101500 1612N 05255W 7060 03004 9998 +103 +094 324048 049 035 003 00
101530 1614N 05253W 7031 03032 9990 +103 +094 326050 051 038 005 00
101600 1615N 05252W 7047 03007 9982 +104 +104 326051 053 039 011 00
101630 1616N 05250W 6999 03058 9981 +096 //// 330054 056 041 019 01
101700 1618N 05249W 7016 03035 9979 +095 //// 335053 054 047 009 01
101730 1619N 05248W 7062 02973 9966 +104 +097 335056 057 043 008 00
101800 1621N 05246W 7023 03018 9957 +106 +093 332058 061 043 005 00
101830 1622N 05245W 6984 03056 9946 +104 +104 331065 066 045 011 00
101900 1623N 05244W 6991 03044 9939 +105 +085 330064 066 047 008 00
101930 1625N 05242W 7014 03006 9929 +109 +091 327063 066 048 008 00
102000 1626N 05241W 6966 03057 9917 +109 +087 327069 070 052 008 00

[Frank2]

A pro-met opinion on forecasts one week in advance (regarding a Miami landfall forecast one week from today): https://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are- ... a-week-out

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 041030
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 22 20170904
102030 1627N 05239W 6995 03010 9905 +109 +089 325072 074 054 010 00
102100 1629N 05238W 6986 03004 9888 +111 +098 324070 072 058 007 00
102130 1630N 05237W 6916 03079 9871 +110 +083 322074 075 059 008 00
102200 1632N 05235W 6926 03049 9862 +102 +092 321074 075 062 005 00
102230 1633N 05234W 6984 02966 9834 +114 +097 323077 080 060 006 00
102300 1634N 05232W 6923 03021 9815 +110 //// 322079 081 062 009 01
102330 1636N 05231W 6876 03057 9793 +108 //// 318080 082 065 006 01
102400 1637N 05229W 6937 02959 9765 +110 +107 317082 083 070 005 00
102430 1638N 05228W 6874 03009 9724 +114 +109 313086 088 074 005 00
102500 1640N 05226W 6773 03089 9669 +113 //// 311093 095 078 012 01
102530 1641N 05225W 6779 03022 9606 +111 //// 310093 095 086 025 01
102600 1643N 05223W 6708 03054 9525 +125 //// 309060 080 088 021 01
102630 1645N 05222W 6714 03022 9484 +138 +129 293026 034 086 017 03
102700 1647N 05221W 6719 03005 9467 +144 +121 282004 010 014 002 00
102730 1649N 05220W 6718 03006 9473 +136 +125 095011 015 014 002 03
102800 1650N 05219W 6700 03030 9467 +142 +124 096023 029 023 003 00
102830 1651N 05217W 6709 03016 9453 +156 +122 105040 046 045 006 00
102900 1653N 05216W 6718 03027 9488 +139 +123 116079 088 074 006 00
102930 1654N 05215W 6721 03067 9536 +140 +127 124105 108 083 005 00
103000 1656N 05213W 6843 02967 9601 +142 +105 125105 108 083 002 00


Going to sleep soon! But 108 knts flight level, 88 knts smrf and 945.3mb.

[EyELeSs1]

Looks like we might get a near direct hit here in Antigua. Hopefully nothing like Luis in 1995!

Fady, are you here??

No but following it regardless.

Okay, was going to come see you if so. Msg me on Whatsapp. I've been trying to msg you but your number has changed.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 041040
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 23 20170904
103030 1657N 05212W 6885 02965 9659 +139 +103 128100 100 083 002 00
103100 1658N 05211W 6875 03009 9705 +133 +112 128097 099 079 002 00
103130 1700N 05209W 6903 03004 9731 +138 +102 128092 095 076 002 00
103200 1701N 05208W 6890 03040 9758 +138 +081 129087 088 073 002 00
103230 1702N 05207W 6970 02964 9792 +133 +094 129089 090 077 004 00
103300 1704N 05205W 6949 03008 9809 +131 +093 129087 088 078 005 00
103330 1705N 05204W 6923 03052 9838 +119 +106 130085 088 079 007 00
103400 1706N 05202W 6967 03014 9862 +111 //// 137090 093 073 017 01
103430 1708N 05201W 6933 03069 9886 +102 //// 129090 097 074 024 05
103500 1709N 05159W 6972 03033 9902 +106 +105 129087 092 070 020 00
103530 1711N 05158W 7020 02986 9917 +105 //// 134089 091 067 019 05
103600 1712N 05157W 6922 03121 9934 +098 //// 136087 088 063 015 01
103630 1713N 05155W 6963 03082 9950 +099 //// 129081 086 060 018 05
103700 1715N 05154W 7013 03029 9967 +095 //// 130079 080 054 021 05
103730 1716N 05152W 7023 03028 9973 +099 //// 127077 078 051 010 01
103800 1718N 05151W 7041 03012 9977 +104 +100 124078 079 049 006 00
103830 1719N 05149W 7033 03023 9986 +103 +091 122076 078 048 005 00
103900 1720N 05148W 7045 03021 9991 +107 +068 122074 074 046 005 00
103930 1722N 05147W 7047 03022 9997 +109 +069 122072 072 043 006 00
104000 1723N 05145W 7060 03014 9999 +112 +071 122069 070 041 008 00

Good night!