ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 52.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 16.7N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 19.6N 66.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 21.0N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 22.0N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


So much for 16.8 being the bottom.

My line in the sand was 16.6N, tracks below that and all my -removed- for the islands being spared was just that.

I'm thinking if I can't even predict a forecast point 24 hours ahead I better stop wasting the storm2k bandwidth.

[NDG]

Latest recon pass shows that Irma's pressure continues to drop.

[cjrciadt]

Raw T number spikes up to 6.4!!

[WeatherGuesser]

IF it gets into the GOM, then what?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904657400929640448

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Pressure down to 948 mb.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS could've been onto something severely deepening Irma.

[tolakram]

Hopefully our Islander friends are rushing their Hurricane plans to completion.

[Nimbus]

Does anyone think that maybe this ends up in the western Caribbean before the next weakness picks this up by going through Cuba

What will the latitude be at 55w, 58w please be specific.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: The GFS could've been onto something severely deepening Irma.

Hope not, this would be a horrible situation up and down Florida and let's not forget Cuba either

[Sanibel]

GFS suggests a Donna-like nightmare track for us...All these years on the board saying "Donna-like track" and here we are looking at the real thing coming true on the models...This household is now under hurricane emergency status and today will be spent getting ready...Track could still change but there's no sense not preparing for the worst...This is no Charlie...This will be a surger...We're in the "A" zone 300 yards from the beach...





.

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

Great presentation on IR.
Just before DMAX
Massive eyewall hot tower made a couple loops and quickly heated the core.
As a result, eye beginning to open up.

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think that maybe this ends up in the western Caribbean before the next weakness picks this up by going through Cuba

What will the latitude be at 55w, 58w please be specific.

About 16n but looking at it starting to bend more south of due west 16.5 can't be out of the question but I wonder about the due west farther west near Cuba

[cycloneye]

[cjrciadt]

Agreed, already passing this info to friends to get them more seriously prepared. This track track would put major cane winds to me even in the heart of CFL!! ( latest GFS track)

[tolakram]

This year we will be able to monitor storm progress with much more accuracy thanks to GOES16. THey already have a 1min floater on it.

Visible
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=995&y=877&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

IR
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=995&y=877&z=1&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

10:48z