ATL: HARVEY - Models

[mcheer23]

Houston Channel 2 Britta Merwin just showed the NHC update info during the 11 to 11:30am newscast, along with the GFS, Euro and "their model". She said "their model" was predicting a Brownsville landfall and that was a still a possibility. I understand that things are fluid, but does anyone know what "their model" is? Does anyone feel this is going to Brownsville instead of the middle coast? I was astounded when she said it, given the critical nature of communications about this system.

This is why I only watch 11 and 13 now.

[Tireman4]

Houston Channel 2 Britta Merwin just showed the NHC update info during the 11 to 11:30am newscast, along with the GFS, Euro and "their model". She said "their model" was predicting a Brownsville landfall and that was a still a possibility. I understand that things are fluid, but does anyone know what "their model" is? Does anyone feel this is going to Brownsville instead of the middle coast? I was astounded when she said it, given the critical nature of communications about this system.

If in doubt, go with the NHC. Just my three cents.....

[ROCK]

LOL Brownsville? the southern edge of the cone....yeah could happen I guess...would I bet that? no...still thinking Freeport south to CC...somewhere in there...JMO...listen to the NHC...

[Tireman4]

LOL Brownsville? the southern edge of the cone....yeah could happen I guess...would I bet that? no...still thinking Freeport south to CC...somewhere in there...JMO...listen to the NHC...

And the ROCK. And I am still thinking UKMET..but again...I agree with ROCK...Freeport to CC..

[mcheer23]

LOL Brownsville? the southern edge of the cone....yeah could happen I guess...would I bet that? no...still thinking Freeport south to CC...somewhere in there...JMO...listen to the NHC...

And the ROCK. And I am still thinking UKMET..but again...I agree with ROCK...Freeport to CC..

Actually basically had the same thing, but Port A to Freeport.

[tolakram]

[Steve]

The dreaded NAVGEM, who's 06Z run was closest to the ECMWF 00Z run is running now. I generally don't like it outside of a couple of days, but we're at a couple of days now. So it shouldn't be terrible with the track. The 06Z was farther south offshore of the LA/TX Border than the 00Z ECMWF and came in a little farther east. They are completely independent models from one another, but seeing as they were both pretty close on the last runs, I'm a little more interested in what the outcome is. 12Z NAVGEM is only out to 12 hours at the moment.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=86

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Steve

Great posts and insight today. I'm up in monroe working this week so can't stay up to date as much as I would like, but if euro shows same scenario or worse like it has been for the past few days, a lot of people in our area are going to hit the panic button I believe. Of course texas is first but just don't want to see this thing reemerge out into the gulf under these same favorable conditions and bomb out heading slowly east across south la for a couple of days. I know south LA can not handle it.

[stormreader]

LOL Brownsville? the southern edge of the cone....yeah could happen I guess...would I bet that? no...still thinking Freeport south to CC...somewhere in there...JMO...listen to the NHC...

And the ROCK. And I am still thinking UKMET..but again...I agree with ROCK...Freeport to CC..

Actually basically had the same thing, but Port A to Freeport.

Well I've been in favor of Port Arthur down to Galveston for several days (uppermost Texas coast). But not feeling too confident now. If the Euro continues to show a landfall near Corpus and backs up the GFS....model error is getting smaller now....have to think that's probably where its heading. But let's see what the Euro says. You never know with these things....

[stormreader]

Further up the coast and closer to my original thinking, but if Euro and GFS come together here in this short time-frame, its going to be hard to say they're mistaken.....Odds would definitely be in their favor.

[hicksta]

And the ROCK. And I am still thinking UKMET..but again...I agree with ROCK...Freeport to CC..

Actually basically had the same thing, but Port A to Freeport.

Well I've been in favor of Port Arthur down to Galveston for several days (uppermost Texas coast). But not feeling too confident now. If the Euro continues to show a landfall near Corpus and backs up the GFS....model error is getting smaller now....have to think that's probably where its heading. But let's see what the Euro says. You never know with these things....

I remember evacuating for Rita thinking our house in Clear Lake was toast... I believe we were 1-2 days out & all the models had zeroed in on the freeport area.. However, it ended up turning to Beaumont at the last moment.. You just never know with these storms & have to pay constant attention.

[stormreader]

Steve

Great posts and insight today. I'm up in monroe working this week so can't stay up to date as much as I would like, but if euro shows same scenario or worse like it has been for the past few days, a lot of people in our area are going to hit the panic button I believe. Of course texas is first but just don't want to see this thing reemerge out into the gulf under these same favorable conditions and bomb out heading slowly east across south la for a couple of days. I know south LA can not handle it.

Well one positive, at the time of the Louisiana impact the storm will at least be moving...not staying too long in one place. At least rain amounts would be mitigated some.

[Steve]

Steve

Great posts and insight today. I'm up in monroe working this week so can't stay up to date as much as I would like, but if euro shows same scenario or worse like it has been for the past few days, a lot of people in our area are going to hit the panic button I believe. Of course texas is first but just don't want to see this thing reemerge out into the gulf under these same favorable conditions and bomb out heading slowly east across south la for a couple of days. I know south LA can not handle it.

Thanks man. Unless the European drops a little farther south into the Gulf on the ENE move (e.g. the 06Z NAVGEM), I don't things would really get that bad here except for street flooding. It should be in a weakening phase and will hopefully already have landfalled west of here by then and just be passing us by across or to our north. Obviously the potential is there. I'd be knife-edge about it if I was in Lake Charles or Beaumont or any of the other cities and towns near the border. CMC has it crossing directly overhead at 1007mb with most of the weather out front. It rides it low across the state which is the lowest I've seen today.

[Tireman4]

Actually basically had the same thing, but Port A to Freeport.

Well I've been in favor of Port Arthur down to Galveston for several days (uppermost Texas coast). But not feeling too confident now. If the Euro continues to show a landfall near Corpus and backs up the GFS....model error is getting smaller now....have to think that's probably where its heading. But let's see what the Euro says. You never know with these things....

I remember evacuating for Rita thinking our house in Clear Lake was toast... I believe we were 1-2 days out & all the models had zeroed in on the freeport area.. However, it ended up turning to Beaumont at the last moment.. You just never know with these storms & have to pay constant attention.

Well, it hit us ( part of Rita) in Humble. 75 MPH winds...so it did get some of us...

[CaneCurious]

Steve

Great posts and insight today. I'm up in monroe working this week so can't stay up to date as much as I would like, but if euro shows same scenario or worse like it has been for the past few days, a lot of people in our area are going to hit the panic button I believe. Of course texas is first but just don't want to see this thing reemerge out into the gulf under these same favorable conditions and bomb out heading slowly east across south la for a couple of days. I know south LA can not handle it.

I just watched the 12:00 news here in NOLA where WWL said that even if it does emerge back over the gulf that the conditions are not the same and the storm would not deepen. He really downplayed it. With the pump situation in NO, any amount of rain should not be downplayed.

[NDG]

I see that the crappy CMC finally decided to go with the Euro solution, piece of crap it is. Sorry again for hurting the feelings to those that follow that model

[Steve]

Steve

Great posts and insight today. I'm up in monroe working this week so can't stay up to date as much as I would like, but if euro shows same scenario or worse like it has been for the past few days, a lot of people in our area are going to hit the panic button I believe. Of course texas is first but just don't want to see this thing reemerge out into the gulf under these same favorable conditions and bomb out heading slowly east across south la for a couple of days. I know south LA can not handle it.

I just watched the 12:00 news here in NOLA where WWL said that even if it does emerge back over the gulf that the conditions are not the same and the storm would not deepen. He really downplayed it. With the pump situation in NO, any amount of rain should not be downplayed.

I understand the need not to panic anyone. And I don't think there's any way (waiting for the EURO to start running at the moment) that it's going to get back to what it was. It could and should definitely still deepen again. Again, it's not going to be what it was. I like the news stations for during and after storms. But I only trust this site, local NWS office and NHC for my information.

[Tireman4]

I see that the crappy CMC finally decided to go with the Euro solution, piece of crap it is. Sorry again for hurting the feelings to those that follow that model

But we love the Crazy Uncle Canadian

[Steve]

I see that the crappy CMC finally decided to go with the Euro solution, piece of crap it is. Sorry again for hurting the feelings to those that follow that model

LOL. ECMWF initialized.

[NDG]

I see that the crappy CMC finally decided to go with the Euro solution, piece of crap it is. Sorry again for hurting the feelings to those that follow that model

But we love the Crazy Uncle Canadian

Hope just when we need a good laugh and not take it that serious