ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AubreyStorm]

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

Moving west or north of due west based on that

Not good right?

[CourierPR]

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

Moving west or north of due west based on that

Eight A.M. bulletin says movement WSW at 255 degrees.

[Hurricaneman]

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

Moving west or north of due west based on that

Not good right?

I think no matter what it's going to hit the NE lesser Antilles head on but better for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola but that could still change. Beyond that there's still a lot of spread from south of Cuba to the Florida straits and from there North Carolina to Mississippi

[Hurricaneman]

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

Moving west or north of due west based on that

Eight A.M. bulletin says movement WSW at 255 degrees.

That will probably be adjusted at 11

[storm4u]

The models have this on a more wsw mostion for the better part of today.. If its already moving a little north of west they should adjust

New drop just came in.

947mb
16.8N 52.6W

Moving west or north of due west based on that

[weathaguyry]

Hmm, if this is starting to move due W, and won't dip south and farther, I wonder if it would have any implications on future track. The most immediate thought is that it may spare the brunt of the storm for PR, but it may be a little to late for the NE Leewards.

[GCANE]

Irma's outflow is pretty much pushing any shear out of its way on the outer N & NW quad.

[CourierPR]

Moving west or north of due west based on that

Eight A.M. bulletin says movement WSW at 255 degrees.

That will probably be adjusted at 11

If a hurricane hunter sent that position and heading, I would think no "adjustment" would be necessary.

[jlauderdal]

Hmm, if this is starting to move due W, and won't dip south and farther, I wonder if it would have any implications on future track. The most immediate thought is that it may spare the brunt of the storm for PR, but it may be a little to late for the NE Leewards.

every inch it moves regardless of direction has future implications..do they wobble, yes, do those wobbles effect track, absolutely even after smoothing it out...bottom line, as long as its proceeding south and west it increases chances of a united states hit..first up is our friends in islands, hopefully it stays to their north

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/1145 UTC 16.9N 52.6W T5.5/5.5 IRMA
04/0545 UTC 17.0N 51.5W T5.0/5.0 IRMA

[BobHarlem]

If the trend continues further west it's probably better overall (not for individual areas) but it woulds mean Hispaniola and Cuban mountain interaction which could kill the system. (North coast of Cuba alone wouldn't do it though)

[HurricaneFrances04]

Could be a wobble. Models still show somewhat of a southerly component for the next 12-18 hours. If it continues to head due west instead of WSW, could see the windshield wiper effect with the models. That would be good news for Antilles, bad news for the Bahamas and US East Coast.

[WeatherGuesser]

Gang, you can't fix direction based on a drop or point here or there. This thing has been wobbling for days and may continue to do so. You have to look at the longer term over a matter of hours.

[CronkPSU]

Don't they base direction on a 6 hour average and not just movement from drop to drop or hour to hour?

[WeatherGuesser]

Track will probably lock now

Track will not 'lock' for several more days, if then.


..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Don't they base direction on a 6 hour average and not just movement from drop to drop or hour to hour?

I believe it is 12 hours, but I might be wrong.

[Blown Away]

Don't need recon, it's pretty much due W now...

[pcolaman]

Don't need recon, it's pretty much due W now...

Looks like she is expanding now.

[Hurricaneman]

Don't need recon, it's pretty much due W now...

Looks like it wobbled to 17n but that could be an artifact

[ObsessedMiami]

Track will probably lock now

Track will not 'lock' for several more days, if then.


..

If ever, really.