ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:25pm CDT...

ENE/NE Quadrant:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 85 knots (97.8 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 87 knots (100.1 mph)

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind:
Suspect: 70 knots (80.6 mph)
Non-Supsect: 60 knots (69.0 mph)

[GCANE]

Radar indicated 94mph on north eyewall

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Into Eastern Quadrant (through 8:35pm CDT):

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 81 knots (93.2 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 83 knots (95.5 mph)

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind:
Suspect: 75 knots (86.3 mph)
Non-Supsect: 77 knots (88.6 mph)


URNT15 KNHC 080136
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 44 20171008
012600 2930N 08903W 8419 01368 9829 +221 +177 188017 020 045 003 00
012630 2930N 08901W 8425 01362 9833 +218 +176 188025 028 049 005 00
012700 2930N 08859W 8422 01372 9838 +215 +176 190031 035 035 003 00
012730 2930N 08858W 8421 01379 9845 +210 +181 187038 040 044 004 00
012800 2930N 08856W 8428 01374 9851 +205 +186 188044 047 053 003 00
012830 2930N 08854W 8423 01382 9858 +200 +189 194051 055 057 003 03
012900 2930N 08852W 8424 01387 9870 +190 //// 199060 064 064 003 01
012930 2930N 08850W 8422 01401 9885 +189 //// 196069 072 072 008 01
013000 2930N 08848W 8426 01404 9898 +184 //// 196078 079 075 006 01
013030 2930N 08846W 8425 01415 9909 +182 //// 196075 080 074 005 05
013100 2930N 08844W 8425 01427 9921 +179 //// 195073 074 075 005 01
013130 2930N 08842W 8422 01435 9926 +180 +178 193074 075 077 007 03
013200 2930N 08840W 8423 01438 9940 +177 //// 193074 077 063 004 01
013230 2930N 08838W 8421 01445 9947 +175 //// 195076 078 060 005 01
013300 2930N 08836W 8432 01441 9950 +174 //// 193077 079 060 005 01
013330 2930N 08834W 8416 01459 9951 +183 //// 190077 078 055 006 01
013400 2931N 08833W 8427 01450 9958 +179 //// 186079 080 056 005 01
013430 2931N 08831W 8424 01458 9965 +177 //// 184081 083 054 005 01
013500 2931N 08829W 8425 01460 9975 +167 //// 184077 081 054 005 01
013530 2931N 08827W 8424 01468 9984 +172 //// 181075 076 054 006 01
$$

[GBPackMan]

Here by Eglin AFB in the FL panhandle, a few isolated light showers, occasional breezes to 10-15mph, and way up at the north end of the bay is up around 3ft. when I was there 2 hours ago 6:30pm Central.
Otherwise this storm is doing what I thought it would when I posted yesterday morning.

[GCANE]

Jeff reports transformers exploding

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1dRKZnYoRDbKB

[galaxy401]

Those are some huge waves being reported. Are those waves more frequent away from land though?

[FLpanhandle91]

Nate is strengthening right now. SFMR readings are really ramping up east of the center.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[GCANE]

[tolakram]

Pressure up 1, looks to be moving due north now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:45pm CDT:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 080143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 08/01:23:50Z
B. 29 deg 33 min N
089 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1289 m
D. 71 kt
E. 066 deg 18 nm
F. 148 deg 89 kt
G. 066 deg 28 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 18 C / 1532 m
J. 23 C / 1527 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0916A NATE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 066 / 28 NM 01:14:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 4 KT



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2017
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 1:23:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°33'N 89°08'W (29.55N 89.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 59 statute miles (95 km) to the S (183°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,289m (4,229ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 89kts (From the SSE at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) which was observed 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) from the flight level center at 1:14:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 4kts (From the S at 5mph)

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/Accu_Jesse/status/916836951314984960




Jesse Ferrell @Accu_Jesse
Waves impressive at Buoy #42040 -- over 30 feet!
KMIS - MP 140B Apache Oil Rig gusting to 77 knots (but instr. @ 250-300 ft up)
9:25 PM - Oct 7, 2017

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/916843261033177090

[tolakram]

saved radar

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080146
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 45 20171008
013600 2931N 08826W 8422 01470 9989 +170 +170 180075 076 053 012 03
013630 2931N 08826W 8422 01470 9991 +170 +170 180076 076 051 012 03
013700 2931N 08822W 8416 01483 9990 +175 +175 177075 077 050 011 00
013730 2931N 08820W 8428 01473 9990 +169 //// 181075 078 050 005 01
013800 2931N 08819W 8425 01481 9992 +170 //// 180071 072 050 003 01
013830 2931N 08817W 8422 01485 //// +171 //// 183070 071 049 005 01
013900 2931N 08815W 8421 01489 //// +168 //// 183069 070 048 003 01
013930 2931N 08813W 8420 01493 //// +174 //// 183069 071 049 002 01
014000 2931N 08811W 8429 01486 //// +172 //// 180067 070 048 002 01
014030 2931N 08810W 8424 01494 //// +173 //// 180065 067 049 001 01
014100 2931N 08808W 8420 01503 //// +174 //// 182063 065 048 002 01
014130 2931N 08806W 8420 01504 0017 +171 //// 180061 062 047 005 01
014200 2931N 08804W 8426 01498 0024 +176 +176 180062 062 046 008 00
014230 2931N 08803W 8422 01505 0025 +172 +172 176061 061 046 011 00
014300 2931N 08801W 8424 01510 0022 +166 //// 177060 061 044 010 05
014330 2933N 08800W 8424 01508 //// +168 //// 172061 062 043 004 05
014400 2935N 08800W 8424 01508 0017 +172 //// 170060 061 046 005 01
014430 2937N 08759W 8424 01506 0026 +167 //// 169062 063 045 005 01
014500 2939N 08759W 8422 01510 0026 +173 +173 166060 061 043 005 00
014530 2941N 08759W 8422 01510 0016 +176 //// 167059 060 042 003 01
$$

[supercane4867]

Recon and surface observations indicate Nate is a solid hurricane. Radar presentation also improved this evening.
He's now running of time for any additional weakening before landfall. ~75kt landfall seems most likely.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:55pm CDT:

[HedwigTramp]

Waves breaking higher on this cam.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aKNCVDnVdsP

Note to self:
Never buy a vehicle from a storm chaser.
He has had that vehicle all but sunk with salt water the last few hours.
Salt water+Vehicle=fail.
And it is not a rental.

[CrazyC83]

I do think it peaked at 85 kt back at 1200Z though.