ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

It's just another wobble. The long-term movement is a steady NW.

[Steve]

Yeah, Steve, for awhile I was more concerned about 92L as well. Thought Harvey would get buried down into Honduras. You just never know.

No you really don't. And it could be formidable off the SE Coast. Apparently the move into MJO2 was part of the match. I thought max ACE from the burst would be 25. No idea what the 4th system does in the Atlantic, but it looks like Harvey will contribute several points and we'll get some more out of Irene. How many? ?

[xironman]

Seems to continuously blow out overshooting towers.

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

I agree. Think it's been moving about 290-300 deg over the past several hours. Recon will confirm here shortly.

[hriverajr]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

Sure seems that way, I'm wondering whether the big convective bursts that keep triggering in the NW quad are helping to tug the center further west than the background synoptics would suggest?

It seems that way at the moment.. lets see if the trend continues...

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

Sure seems that way, I'm wondering whether the big convective bursts that keep triggering in the NW quad are helping to tug the center further west than the background synoptics would suggest?

Yeah I think that is the reason why it keeps tracking at a more west-northwesterly direction. Very strong convection keeps firing in the western quadrant.

[Steve]

I'm prepping for a Cat 3/4 here, but hoping for a Cat 1/TS. Rather be safe than sorry.

The only way to prep or a Cat3/4 is packing your belongings in the camper, filling the propane and fuel and planning your route far north.

Yeah. He's got more to worry about in Crowley than I do at the moment. Definite waiting game except if the periphery throws anything this way. Otherwise it's 4 days of watching devastation unfold and waiting to see if I get a turn. Definitely scared for everyone in coastal Texas.

[hriverajr]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

I agree. Think it's been moving about 290-300 deg over the past several hours. Recon will confirm here shortly.

3 or 4 hours of that would throw a monkey wrench into the models.

[txwatcher91]

Pressure is just slowly dropping right now. Once this convective burst finishes wrapping around and the CDO finishes forming, expect RAPID pressure drops. Another 3-5 hours should get us there.

[gfsperpendicular]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

An drop of 2mb, winds the same. When is this strengthening run going to begin?

[hriverajr]

New burst on the western side of the center

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

I agree. Think it's been moving about 290-300 deg over the past several hours. Recon will confirm here shortly.

3 or 4 hours of that would throw a monkey wrench into the models.

It sure would. That would take it inland farther south and give it less time remaining over water to strengthen. We'll see if the trend continues.

[AutoPenalti]

The power of the GOM.

[RL3AO]

More thunderstorms firing in the western eyewall.

[txwatcher91]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

An drop of 2mb, winds the same. When is this strengthening run going to begin?

Very soon. Structure is almost complete, it’s buildinf the CDO as we speak and firing intense towers around the eyewall, it appears to have contracted some. Expect rapid pressure drops and clearing of the eye in a few hours.

[psyclone]

Anyone have center fixes? Looks to me looking at radar and sat.. seems to be moving at 290 deg...

btw busy getting ready for new semester.. is why I am asking

Sure seems that way, I'm wondering whether the big convective bursts that keep triggering in the NW quad are helping to tug the center further west than the background synoptics would suggest?

Yeah I think that is the reason why it keeps tracking at a more west-northwesterly direction. Very strong convection keeps firing in the western quadrant.

It's very noticeable. I bet the cows in Kenedy County are getting restless. this would make me more worried in corpus too...

[Rgv20]

I'm just in awe seeing the satellite representation of Harvey and knowing that is right on Texas doorstep. I'm just hoping it doesn't stall and makes a quick exit.

[Cunxi Huang]

AL, 09, 201708242345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2510N, 9440W, , 2, 77, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, JV, VIM, 3, 4545 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=4.5 BO EMB MET=4.0 PT=4.5 FTBO DT

Dvorak estimate T4.5/77kt from SAB.

[Kingarabian]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

An drop of 2mb, winds the same. When is this strengthening run going to begin?

Very soon. Structure is almost complete, it’s buildinf the CDO as we speak and firing intense towers around the eyewall, it appears to have contracted some. Expect rapid pressure drops and clearing of the eye in a few hours.

If it fixes its eastern quad it'll be bombs away.

[Blinhart]

I'm prepping for a Cat 3/4 here, but hoping for a Cat 1/TS. Rather be safe than sorry.

The only way to prep or a Cat3/4 is packing your belongings in the camper, filling the propane and fuel and planning your route far north.

Yeah. He's got more to worry about in Crowley than I do at the moment. Definite waiting game except if the periphery throws anything this way. Otherwise it's 4 days of watching devastation unfold and waiting to see if I get a turn. Definitely scared for everyone in coastal Texas.

Well for the floods last year my house stayed dry, so hoping the flooding does get much worse than that. Plan on staying home. Just plan on exchanging empty propane tanks, getting a lot of ice, and kerosene for portable stove.