ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It just needs to maintain convection, once it gets to a more moist environment as it reaches the Lesser Antilles it should not have any problem with maintaining it, it already has the structure of an organized cyclone. IMO.

[GCANE]

Strongest convection has been firing on the west side of the CoC overnight.

[NDG]

[GCANE]

1000mb & 850mb vort looks closed off.
700mb vort is perfect.
Just need some hot towers to drive this to the surface.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Appears to have a circulation upto 500mb, developing low.

[Nimbus]

Likely to be a tiny but vigorous circulation on the visible satellite imagery.
If they fly recon and find tropical storm force winds the model initialization might change for the evening run.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Appears to have a circulation upto 500mb, developing low.

HH will likely investigate this later today ..... structure Is slowly improving at all levels

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah Not surprised at all with this. I suspected after looking at everything yesterday we would likely be looking at a TC today. should see upgrade soon. have not checked if recon is flying or not. either way should see an upgrade to TS

[GCANE]

Big pressure drop at buoy 41040, NE of the convection.
35 knot gusts
25 knot sustained winds.

[GCANE]

Looks like this will go. Wouldn't be suprised to see a TCFA come out soon.

Anti-cyclone overhead and moving west into a low-shear corridor.
The wave ahead of it is sweaping out the TUTT affecting the Mid Carib

Air saturated from 400mb to 200mb.
Likely will build a high warm core.

[GCANE]

Could see some significant intensification when it hits about 69W.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

No shortage of moisture just W of the leewards.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Could see some significant intensification when it hits about 69W.

Scary situation unfolding for Central America or Mexico

[Alyono]

convection has maintained itself better than I had expected late last evening. This is probably a developer

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

convection has maintained itself better than I had expected late last evening. This is probably a developer

It's doing well and once it gets into the Caribbean moisture levels will rise and shear will drop this thing could explode giving the small size of this system

[GCANE]

Looks like a high-helicity tower fired off at about 14N 54W and moved south.
RAMMB Slider shows it real well.
Its driving the vort down to the surface.

[NDG]

Its organization is looking good this morning on vis.

[NDG]

One positive factor that the TWs have going for this season is that when they are approaching the Lesser Antilles in a lower Latitudes there is no westerly wind shear they are coming across, if anything a little too much easterly push in the mid and upper levels, thus why most of the convection with 91L is to the west of the COC.

[Aric Dunn]

very likely this is already a TS.

[GCANE]

Pretty obvious on VIS, west winds south of the convection.