SFLcane wrote:Boy if it wasn't for that shear we would have some problems on our hands to say the least.
No doubt the 00z models are beeline to SFL... Glad it's a Tropical Wave...
ATL: TEN - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
No doubt the 00z models are beeline to SFL... Glad it's a Tropical Wave...
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
That sure looks like a favorable environment to me. Look at the upper-high north of Hispaniola. The GFS probably did not show redevelopment this run since it has the invest interacting with Hispaniola and Cuba:
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Blown Away wrote:SFLcane wrote:Boy if it wasn't for that shear we would have some problems on our hands to say the least.
No doubt the 00z models are beeline to SFL... Glad it's a Tropical Wave...
I wouldn't be so sure about that yet as this could still miss the islands to the north
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WeatherHoon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Yeah, you never know what's going to happen once a system nears the Bahamas. Conditions may be lackluster now, but they could end up improving in a few days. Keeping a watchful eye on it.
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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Shear comes down later in the period per blown aways post earlier todayWeatherHoon wrote:Yeah, you never know what's going to happen once a system nears the Bahamas. Conditions may be lackluster now, but they could end up improving in a few days. Keeping a watchful eye on it.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0z NAM ends with 92L north of Puerto Rico..a tad north of the 18z
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Just coming to post that. Fast forward 24hrs later and beyond and shear in Bahamas, South Florida, and eastern gulf is pretty unfavorable. If the GFS is correct, big if, that is why it isn't showing anything.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Just coming to post that. Fast forward 24hrs later and beyond and shear in Bahamas, South Florida, and eastern gulf is pretty unfavorable. If the GFS is correct, big if, that is why it isn't showing anything.
Shear forecasts change every run, anything entering the Bahamas with a vigorous circulation can be lethal.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Just coming to post that. Fast forward 24hrs later and beyond and shear in Bahamas, South Florida, and eastern gulf is pretty unfavorable. If the GFS is correct, big if, that is why it isn't showing anything.
The GFS shear forecast in the Bahamas looks fairly favorable to me...I'm not sure what GFS forecast your looking at? The GFS plows 92L into Hispaniola and that's why development is not shown in the Bahamas.
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AtlanticWind
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:Gfs coming in stranger so far
How could the GFS get any stranger
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AtlanticWind
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
A bit more north this run. Could it miss Hispanola??
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WeatherEmperor
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
I have no idea why the GFS doesn't redevelop this again with the more favorable conditions, could it be a new bias in the GFS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
I don't buy this run of the GFS so far. Shows a depression at the beginning of the run and then shows an open wave by hour 78. Will conditions really be that unfavorable?
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HurricaneEric
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:I have no idea why the GFS doesn't redevelop this again with the more favorable conditions, could it be a new bias in the GFS
Looks to me like the wind shear really starts to let up at hour 108.. We're still at hour 114, so lets see.
And now at hour 120, looks like the GFS is still saying nothing to see here but a weak TW about to get buried into the north-eastern coast of Cuba.
Last edited by HurricaneEric on Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Yeah, this isn't Hispaniola interaction that's causing the weakening. It looks like it's pulling down another rogue ull and moving westward in tandem with 92L
Last edited by sma10 on Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:I have no idea why the GFS doesn't redevelop this again with the more favorable conditions, could it be a new bias in the GFS
I don't get it either...could be dry air...looking at the model soundings the RH is fairly low but shear doesn't look to be a big problem.
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