ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

This system and its future track just reminds me so much of Opal

Opal came out of the Bay of Campeche after sitting there for a few days. This storm is not forecast anywhere near there.

It may end up hitting the FL Panhandle like Opal, but it's going to take a much different route to get there.

[Blown Away]

00z...


12z Yesterday

Significant E shift from 12z to 00z...

[hipshot]

Healthy convection...

What's to keep this from acrossing Nicaragua or Honduras?

[NDG]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/nBqxlzf.gif
Healthy convection...

What's to keep this from acrossing Nicaragua or Honduras?

Most models do show it making landfall over NE tip of Nicaragua-eastern Honduras tomorrow. Weakness to the north will keep it moving NNW.

[NDG]

Better visible sat presentation this morning.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro landfall

[MGC]

Spin is quite evident this morning. Good chance recon finds a depression or low end TS. Track reminds me of Ida back in 2009 a bit....MGC.

[ronjon]

The 00z Euro is Hermine 2.0

[chris_fit]

Off Topic, but where can I find previous Model/Discussion threads? I dont see an Archived Storms section for the Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

The 00z Euro is Hermine 2.0

This will probably be quite a bit stronger than modeled, not good news, and look at the GFS with severe convective feedback keeping it weak thus further west as opposed to the Euro which is in the big bend area, I think maybe this shifts east on the models in the next few runs due to underestimating the system

[Aric Dunn]

I would wager given its current rate of organization that we see a 50 mph ts by the time recon arrives and a nearing a hurricane (or a hurricane) by 11pm ...

[jlauderdal]

Off Topic, but where can I find previous Model/Discussion threads? I dont see an Archived Storms section for the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/

[Hurricaneman]

If you live anywhere between Mobile to Ft Myers I would start preparing, my current thinking is that this might come in further east than even the Euro is showing like around Tarpon springs as the models are underestimating the strength of this system

[Aric Dunn]

Rapidly improving structure..

[RL3AO]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized than I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

[NDG]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized that I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

I agree, it will be very surprising if it does not take advantage of the very warm deep waters of the western Caribbean for RI, especially if it follows the track of the Euro.

[NDG]

Saved vis satellite loop this morning.

[chris_fit]

Off Topic, but where can I find previous Model/Discussion threads? I dont see an Archived Storms section for the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/

Thanks - but I meant on storm2k

[slamdaddy]

What a difference a day can make in the wide wide world of weather.

[tolakram]

Off Topic, but where can I find previous Model/Discussion threads? I dont see an Archived Storms section for the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/

Thanks - but I meant on storm2k

Go to the Talkin' Tropics, the Archives is a sub forum of that.

direct link: viewforum.php?f=54