ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

URNT12 KNHC 041712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 04/16:52:20Z
B. 16 deg 43 min N
053 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2621 m
D. 92 kt
E. 310 deg 17 nm
F. 034 deg 102 kt
G. 305 deg 25 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 9 C / 3049 m
J. 16 C / 3043 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO26-32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0311A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 305 / 25 NM 16:44:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 16 KT
;

Concentric eyewalls of 26 and 32 miles. Should keep the winds steady for a bit.

This looks like the ewrc is almost complete

[psyclone]

Irma looks to be doing what the globals have long forecast...strengthening and growing in size.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 041724
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 21 20170904
171500 1553N 05250W 6963 03140 0039 +086 +068 210043 044 039 000 00
171530 1552N 05249W 6969 03136 0038 +091 +062 211043 044 040 000 00
171600 1551N 05248W 6966 03140 0036 +095 +059 211043 043 040 000 00
171630 1550N 05246W 6968 03141 0037 +095 +053 210043 043 038 000 00
171700 1548N 05245W 6967 03141 0041 +093 +053 210042 043 038 000 00
171730 1547N 05244W 6967 03144 0040 +094 +046 209042 043 039 001 00
171800 1546N 05243W 6969 03141 0040 +096 +049 210042 043 038 000 00
171830 1545N 05242W 6965 03145 0042 +095 +050 206041 042 037 000 00
171900 1544N 05241W 6969 03143 0043 +095 +051 207041 041 036 000 00
171930 1542N 05239W 6966 03150 0047 +095 +042 209040 041 036 000 00
172000 1541N 05238W 6967 03151 0050 +095 +040 209039 040 035 000 00
172030 1540N 05237W 6965 03154 0049 +095 +040 210038 039 035 000 00
172100 1539N 05236W 6969 03147 0050 +094 +047 208039 039 035 000 00
172130 1538N 05235W 6966 03151 0046 +095 +046 205037 039 035 000 00
172200 1536N 05233W 6969 03148 0043 +100 +039 206037 037 033 000 00
172230 1535N 05232W 6970 03147 0043 +099 +038 207036 037 033 000 00
172300 1534N 05231W 6966 03153 0048 +097 +046 211037 037 033 000 00
172330 1533N 05230W 6966 03158 0051 +096 +043 211038 038 032 000 03
172400 1531N 05229W 6966 03157 0050 +100 +038 211036 038 032 000 00
172430 1530N 05227W 6966 03158 0052 +097 +047 210034 035 031 000 00

[Extratropical94]

[johngaltfla]

Irma looks to be doing what the globals have long forecast...strengthening and growing in size.

It's the expansion in size which is disturbing to me. Remember Florida is not that big of a state from coast to coast so a large storm going up the spine would impact both sides of the state pretty badly.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 041734
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 22 20170904
172500 1529N 05226W 6969 03154 0050 +099 +046 212034 034 032 000 00
172530 1528N 05225W 6966 03160 0050 +101 +036 209033 034 031 000 00
172600 1527N 05224W 6967 03153 0051 +100 +038 211033 034 030 000 00
172630 1525N 05223W 6969 03156 0056 +096 +030 208034 034 030 000 03
172700 1525N 05221W 6957 03175 0066 +095 +022 203034 035 /// /// 03
172730 1526N 05220W 6968 03164 0064 +095 +019 197033 035 /// /// 03
172800 1528N 05221W 6980 03141 0061 +095 +029 197031 032 031 000 00
172830 1530N 05221W 6963 03161 0057 +095 +020 196033 034 031 000 00
172900 1532N 05221W 6968 03157 0055 +098 +018 200035 036 031 000 00
172930 1534N 05222W 6966 03158 0053 +097 +028 200036 037 032 001 00
173000 1536N 05222W 6964 03158 0056 +095 +036 199038 038 032 000 00
173030 1538N 05222W 6968 03154 0051 +099 +041 196038 039 032 000 00
173100 1540N 05222W 6967 03156 0056 +095 +036 194039 040 033 000 00
173130 1542N 05222W 6967 03154 0056 +093 +038 192040 041 030 000 00
173200 1544N 05223W 6966 03154 0056 +095 +032 191041 042 029 000 00
173230 1547N 05223W 6970 03149 0056 +095 +035 190041 041 033 001 00
173300 1549N 05223W 6967 03153 0053 +093 +045 190039 040 033 001 00
173330 1551N 05223W 6967 03155 0052 +095 +045 190040 040 036 001 00
173400 1553N 05223W 6966 03153 0052 +095 +041 188040 041 037 001 00
173430 1555N 05224W 6968 03148 0055 +091 +044 189040 041 037 001 00

[Orlando]

Although I have read through this thread since the beginning, I have tried to stay quiet about this storm until it got closer to me. I do not know how to predict storms like this nor do I know anything much about the terms used by the experts. Please do not take what I say as any prediction of the path of the storm. I also have not wanted to jinx myself by stating my feelings and then having issues.

As some of you know, I have arthritis in my hip and get constant pains when storms like this come in. Last year, when we had Matthew, I hurt from the time it started until the time it arrived at my door. (And I evacuated to Clearwater with pain continuing). The intensity of the pain ebbed and flowed, but it was always there.

Now, with Irma, the pain is almost non existent. I don't understand why. For the first few days when Irma left Africa I had very slight pain, but that waned and has not returned at all. I have had at least my usual activity and more, including lots of walking and a trip to the theme park, which in itself should have caused pain, however no pain has arrived. I assume that the lack of pain is due to the storm being very south of me with a trajectory that is not headed in my direction. I also assume that when the storm starts to turn north I should start to have pain. We shall see if that plays out, and I will report here as soon as that happens.

I will say that I have started to feel a tiny tinge since I started writing this post, but I don't believe it will develop or continue. I believe that if I get up and walk around, it will subside. It could be caused by slight wobbling in Irma's path.

Here is what I take from this experience. (I am not a met and do not intend to predict this storm). I believe that the storm is going to go farther west than the models predict. I also believe that it will stay south of Florida for the time being. I could be making a complete fool out of myself here with this belief, but I'm just not having the spidey senses for this one to arrive on the east side of FL. What it does after that, I'll be in tune with my pains, and will report when intensity warrants.

I realize that a north turn away from land about now would be a big blessing to everyone on land, and I pray that would be the case.

[curtadams]

Can anyone take a guesstimate of how much storm surge could be expected for Vieques?

The NHS forecast for the affected areas is 6 to 9 feet. I can't find local surge maps.

[ocala]

Decided to get my genny gas today.
This is going to be front page news the rest of the week so things will be getting "tense" as the week rolls on.

[RL3AO]

EWRC continues.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Eyewall cycle obvious even on infrared satellite- you can see the eye shrinking with time. Wish #Irma would stop moving south-of-west

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904760231988736000

[curtadams]

Pressure still dropping and I hate to think of what this will do when the ewrc is completed

Based on the last few days, it will probably start another EWRC.

[gatorcane]

She looks to be growing in size.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the larger eyewall is starting to become dominant on satellite imagery too. The moat between the eyewalls is weakning. The CDO looks to be expanding as well. The eye is still partially cloud-filled now, but once it clears out, satellite estimates will likely significantly increase.

[flamingosun]

I'm 2 miles from the coast near Cocoa. If it comes up through the middle of Florida, is it a good idea to evacuate? What would we expect in mid-Florida? Would it have weakened to a cat 1 by then? I have two little ones and am trying to make plans for different scenarios.

If it helps, I am in a similar situation, and here's what I'm doing:

I just made a reservation at the La Quinta Inn and Suites in Viera. (@I-95) They are several miles inland from the Indian River, and are 31 ft above sea level. (They are also very near a hospital, and I have an 83 year old with major health issues.)

I figure that's safer than my home on the barrier island that's less than 5' above sea level. The causeways are really low, and the bridges over to the mainland will likely close when winds reach about 45 mph. So, I made my reservation to begin on Friday night. That's probably too early, but in the event the storm turns our way AND speeds up, we'll be able to get there easily enough.

They were starting to get a lot of evacuation reservations already, so be mindful of that!

[eastcoastFL]

Irma looks to be doing what the globals have long forecast...strengthening and growing in size.

It's the expansion in size which is disturbing to me. Remember Florida is not that big of a state from coast to coast so a large storm going up the spine would impact both sides of the state pretty badly.

This is my biggest concern as well. If she keeps growing in size whether she's in the Bahamas or on land we will feel her in most of the peninsula.

[sponger]

Booked a room in Tallahassee for Sunday and Monday. Easier to cancel than to get a room once evac orders go out.

[Extratropical94]

A NOAA plane has left Barbados for an upper-level mission.

[Prof]

I'm 2 miles from the coast near Cocoa. If it comes up through the middle of Florida, is it a good idea to evacuate? What would we expect in mid-Florida? Would it have weakened to a cat 1 by then? I have two little ones and am trying to make plans for different scenarios.

If it helps, I am in a similar situation, and here's what I'm doing:

I just made a reservation at the La Quinta Inn and Suites in Viera. (@I-95) They are several miles inland from the Indian River, and are 31 ft above sea level. They are also very near a hospital, and I have an 83 year old with major health issues.

I figure that's safer than my home on the barrier island that's less than 5' above sea level. The causeways are really low, and the bridges over to the mainland will likely close when winds reach about 45 mph. So, I made my reservation to begin on Friday night. That's probably too early, but in the event the storm turns our way AND speeds up, we'll be able to get there easily enough.

They were starting to get a lot of evacuation reservations already, so be mindful of that!

Thank you! We just moved here two years ago and are still figuring out what to do in these situations. I actually made a reservation for Tallahassee and hotels there were getting booked up fast. I'll make a reservation in Viera, too.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KNHC 041744
AF309 0311A IRMA HDOB 23 20170904
173500 1557N 05224W 6966 03152 0051 +093 +038 187041 041 033 001 03
173530 1559N 05224W 6967 03150 0052 +092 +043 187042 043 032 001 00
173600 1601N 05224W 6970 03147 0052 +091 +044 187043 043 032 001 00
173630 1604N 05225W 6967 03150 0054 +090 +044 185043 043 036 000 00
173700 1606N 05225W 6967 03151 0054 +090 +044 184045 045 036 001 00
173730 1608N 05225W 6967 03147 0054 +090 +044 183046 046 037 001 00
173800 1610N 05225W 6967 03149 0049 +091 +046 186046 047 036 001 00
173830 1612N 05225W 6966 03147 0050 +092 +048 186045 046 036 001 00
173900 1614N 05226W 6967 03147 0049 +091 +045 185045 046 037 001 00
173930 1617N 05226W 6967 03147 0044 +095 +045 185046 046 037 001 03
174000 1619N 05226W 6967 03147 0044 +098 +032 182046 047 036 002 00
174030 1621N 05226W 6967 03148 0041 +098 +026 180047 047 037 001 00
174100 1623N 05227W 6966 03147 0047 +095 +032 177046 047 037 002 00
174130 1625N 05227W 6969 03146 0045 +092 +042 177047 047 040 002 00
174200 1627N 05227W 6967 03146 0044 +093 +042 176048 049 038 003 00
174230 1630N 05227W 6966 03145 0044 +092 +041 174047 048 039 001 03
174300 1632N 05228W 6967 03145 0044 +092 +043 174046 046 039 001 00
174330 1634N 05228W 6969 03142 0043 +092 +042 173047 047 038 001 00
174400 1636N 05228W 6969 03141 0046 +091 +041 172048 049 040 001 00
174430 1638N 05228W 6965 03146 0048 +089 +042 173049 050 039 000 00