ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hurricaneman]

****. 288 and another big system is off the US SE Coast approaching. Depicted pretty clearly for 12 days out. Double threat for us says the GFS.

Would that be future Jose or a new system that has yet to form?

Future Jose I believe

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:

[Steve]

Future Jose. It's massive. Haha. Let's hope the GFS doesn't continue to trend south. If it does, clearly the pattern is farther west than what this run shows. And future Jose would probably hit North Carolina. For now it stays out to sea and really deepens while still tropical pretty far north. You don't see that every day on a model. Run it on the North Atlantic view - which reminds me I need to make Levi a donation soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=360

Edit to say it ends just south of Nova Scotia with Jose but doesn't look like it is going to hit. Move that track a hundred or two hundred miles west and somebody gets another storm. GFS doesn't show anything beyond Jose in either the EPAC or the Atlantic through the end of its run.

[Mouton]

I think the GFS is on a trip....otherwise, buffolo will get a major surprise!

This run is about 2 degrees farther west than the previous run in the area of No Florida. The Euro is farther west by a few degrees at the same point. To me the models are beginning to loosely agree and could end up with a landing between Cape Canaveral and the No and So Carolina borders with the angle of attack increasing the risk to the north of that cone. Granted this is seven or more days out but these models are trending together. That 1032-1028 massive high is not going to let this go east, and if so, not very much once it begins its curve to the North IMO. The recent GFS with the south east view had a had a low reading of 896, if so, it would indicate a cat 5 storm which I doubt given the surface water temp at 30north lat.

[Blinhart]

Future Jose. It's massive. Haha. Let's hope the GFS doesn't continue to trend south. If it does, clearly the pattern is farther west than what this run shows. And future Jose would probably hit North Carolina. For now it stays out to sea and really deepens while still tropical pretty far north. You don't see that every day on a model. Run it on the North Atlantic view - which reminds me I need to make Levi a donation soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=360

Just ran the HWRF-P on that site, that is pretty scary.

[pcolaman]

I think the GFS is on a trip....otherwise, buffolo will get a major surprise!

This run is about 2 degrees farther west than the previous run in the area of No Florida. The Euro is farther west by a few degrees at the same point. To me the models are beginning to loosely agree and could end up with a landing between Cape Canaveral and the No and So Carolina borders with the angle of attack increasing the risk to the north of that cone. Granted this is seven or more days out but these models are trending together. That 1032-1028 massive high is not going to let this go east, and if so, not very much once it begins its curve to the North IMO. The recent GFS with the south east view had a had a low reading of 896, if so, it would indicate a cat 5 storm which I doubt given the surface water temp at 30north lat.

I think until the models are about 5 to 6 days out ,we won't know for sure the exact track she will take. Until then we can't help but to notice the overall trend and that's west. Imho

[AtlanticWind]

I don't think anything is remotely set in stone other than maybe the 96 hour forecast.
Irma could still end up going thru florida into the eastern gulf to staying offshore
the U.S, A couple more days and we may start to get a true idea.

[Steve]

Future Jose. It's massive. Haha. Let's hope the GFS doesn't continue to trend south. If it does, clearly the pattern is farther west than what this run shows. And future Jose would probably hit North Carolina. For now it stays out to sea and really deepens while still tropical pretty far north. You don't see that every day on a model. Run it on the North Atlantic view - which reminds me I need to make Levi a donation soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=360

Just ran the HWRF-P on that site, that is pretty scary.

Damn. Haha. You're going to make me go look at it. By the way, check out the NCPE which is the NCEP GFS Ensemble forecast for the MJO.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

I'm not embrionically versed enough to know all the temperature or rainfall patterns that occur in what months under what phases. But I guarantee that if the GFS Ensembles are blasting us that far into Phases 8 and 1, you could see how there might be 2 very strong hurricanes near the SE US in the first couple of weeks of September.

[toad strangler]

GEFS are still mainly south although not as clustered on FL. The consensus has moved N but not the overall target area.

[Mouton]

I think the GFS is on a trip....otherwise, buffolo will get a major surprise!

This run is about 2 degrees farther west than the previous run in the area of No Florida. The Euro is farther west by a few degrees at the same point. To me the models are beginning to loosely agree and could end up with a landing between Cape Canaveral and the No and So Carolina borders with the angle of attack increasing the risk to the north of that cone. Granted this is seven or more days out but these models are trending together. That 1032-1028 massive high is not going to let this go east, and if so, not very much once it begins its curve to the North IMO. The recent GFS with the south east view had a had a low reading of 896, if so, it would indicate a cat 5 storm which I doubt given the surface water temp at 30north lat.

I think until the models are about 5 to 6 days out ,we won't know for sure the exact track she will take. Until then we can't help but to notice the overall trend and that's west. Imho

As they say in investing, the trend is your friend. The trend here is to the west with the GFS. Beyond five days it is all speculation at this point is a given but the set up seems to be not in favor of a move to sea.

[Bocadude85]

0z HMON is about 1 degree WSW of the 18z position at 102 hours.

[Steve]

Out to 144 (6 days) NAVGEM is NE of the islands and Puerto Rico and northeast of the GFS. Of note, it develops the system in the BoC and spins it around. It's at 1005mb also at 144 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Blinhart,

That HRWF-P run is insane.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[SouthFLTropics]

Ensembles shifted NE...not so clustered on Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON finished

[AutoPenalti]

Ensembles shifted NE...not so clustered on Florida

That's interesting, SE FL seems a little less out of the area for now.

But that could change real quick.

[USTropics]

Here is a breakdown of the 51 ECMWF ensemble members with the 12z suite (this is for long range forecasts only):

16 recurves - https://image.ibb.co/gmn6Gv/recurve.gif
12 Nova Scotia/Newfoundland - https://image.ibb.co/mdDP3a/ns_nf.gif

10 Florida


10 Carolinas


2 Northeast


1 failed initialization/dissipation

[Steve]

European is rolling.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90200&fh=0

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That looks quite a steep recurve in the track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Blinhart]

That looks quite a steep recurve in the track.

Why does it say TS?