ATL: TEN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

I don't buy this run of the GFS so far. Shows a depression at the beginning of the run and then shows an open wave by hour 78. Will conditions really be that unfavorable?

No. GFS gonna GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

I don't buy this run of the GFS so far. Shows a depression at the beginning of the run and then shows an open wave by hour 78. Will conditions really be that unfavorable?

No. GFS gonna GFS.

The Other reliable models seem to even modestly redevelop this like the ukmet and Euro while the GFS is in the navgem camp which is not the best camp to be in

[txwatcher91]

Yeah, this isn't Hispaniola interaction that's causing the weakening. It looks like it's pulling down another rogue ull and moving westward in tandem with 92L

With Gert the GFS did that too and shredded the wave and said nothing would happen. Meanwhile, the Euro showed a much better environment for organization and sure enough that’s what we have. The GFS doesn’t have much value anymore for track or TC genesis. It does well once a storm develops. Honestly, the CMC seems to be doing the best of the 3 models.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I don't buy this run of the GFS so far. Shows a depression at the beginning of the run and then shows an open wave by hour 78. Will conditions really be that unfavorable?

No. GFS gonna GFS.

At this point is equally trust the CMC (if not more) than the GFS.

[stormlover2013]

I mean is the gfs that bad now??

[Hurricaneman]

I mean is the gfs that bad now??

When it comes to cyclogenesis yes, doesn't even initialize a low at initialization

[stormlover2013]

That's crazy !!

[WeatherEmperor]

Canadian at 66hrs




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[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to want to try developing it in the GOM

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS used to be good for destroying something almost every single run with a huge major storm. With the upgrade now it has become the kinder, gentler GFS on Prozac and shreds every storm apart. Personally I preferred the excitement of Heisenberg over dull old Mr. White.

[hd44]

I am a hater of the gfs but I admit it has done really well the past week. It nailed the 2 vorts with 92l and 91l being separate . It showed the rapid intensification of Gert first. We shall see. Overall it has not improved from the prior gfs though.

[Hurricaneman]

I am a hater of the gfs but I admit it has done really well the past week. It nailed the 2 vots with 92l and 91l being separate . It showed the rapid intensification of Gert first. We shall see. Overall it has not improved from the prior gfs though.

It actually went conservative and in several cases too conservative

[Bocadude85]

I am a hater of the gfs but I admit it has done really well the past week. It nailed the 2 vorts with 92l and 91l being separate . It showed the rapid intensification of Gert first. We shall see. Overall it has not improved from the prior gfs though.

Well according to the GFS we should have a TS out of 92L in 36 hours..that will be its first test imo.

[hd44]

I am a hater of the gfs but I admit it has done really well the past week. It nailed the 2 vorts with 92l and 91l being separate . It showed the rapid intensification of Gert first. We shall see. Overall it has not improved from the prior gfs though.

Been a bunch of phantom epac storms. Overall gfs remains a bad model compared to the Ecmwf, Ukmet...and yes even the Jma with 500 heights.

[WeatherEmperor]

Ukmet shifted a bit north. Run ends in the southern Bahamas moving WNW. Unsure of intensity. Hard to see but its the blue line



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[HurricaneEric]

FWIW, the 00z CMC is showing a 1004mb weak TS just approaching the SE Bahamas and just north of Hispaniola at hour 114.

[hd44]

Ukmet shifted a bit north. Run ends in the southern Bahamas moving WNW. Unsure of intensity. Hard to see but its the blue line




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Whenever you see the Ukmet on that map, it means it formed the system. The meteocentre site should update around 12:45... should have a better look on intensity.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS had an ULL staying with Gert which clearly didn't happen and until I see it with this system I'm going to ignore its output of the system but I might use it for steering currents

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC nose dives it into North Central Cuba ala Ike...Trough is coming though...might take a west coast of Florida trip.

[hd44]

Fwiw... I am not sure why the Gfs is not forming it even more stronger than a weak vorticity in the Gulf which is near 90 degrees right now and light wind shear. The model is having a hard time seeing 92l perhaps.