ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

Oh...****
[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090200/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_11.png[/img]

[NJWxHurricane]

Landfall in south carolina

[NJWxHurricane]

florida is spared

[AxaltaRacing24]

Landfall

[joey]

Where does the opening come from for it turn North?

Perhaps its feeling the ULL in the mid west moving east ?

I hope you aren't talking about that dark coloring that is over Kansas, if so, that is way too far away for it to turn.

with no trof its going to be too strong to turn on its own maybe future runs will head more west

[AxaltaRacing24]

Moral of the story is that no matter how east or west the trend was today, somebody gets hit hard in almost each run.

[USTropics]

Trend is definitely west with the operational 00z run (10/51 ECMWF ensembles from the 12z showed this type of track). Will be interesting to see the ensembles in a few hours:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Somewhat off topic but in this run Jose gets sheared out by Irma and Katia is born

[brghteys1216]

Another day of south/west trend. If Florida is Irma's target, it would be about 8.5 days from now. Should have more confidence in next few days! This run is definitely scary for all of us in the southeast.

[USTropics]

Landfall in the Carolinas on the 00z run:

[Sciencerocks]

Landfall in south carolina

Another Hugo

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. Well, a very disturbing 0Z run by the EURO as the model has locked in on a landfall somewhere from Florida to the South Carolina coast.
it is looking very ominous potentially for the Southeast United States coast and I say that with all great concern! Natually, comparisons with Hugo 1989 are going to come after this 0Z run. So, anywhere from South Florida up to the South Carolina coast looks like a target area for the EURO as the model has shown now for the past couple of run cycles. We are now within a week or so from now of this monster approaching the region! My, my what an upcoming week this potentially could be around here! WOW!

[birddogsc]

If the Euro verifies (and I know we are many days out), this would be the third mid-season significant tropical event for South Carolina in a row...

[Jonny]

Somewhat off topic but in this run Jose gets sheared out by Irma and Katia is born

Yay, maybe we can make it to Alpha before Halloween!

*Sarcasm*

[xironman]

Euro starting to settle in on the upper air pattern over the continent at 144, with a progressive trough in the east. If it holds at 120 you can count on it.

[otowntiger]

Good morning everyone. Well, a very disturbing 0Z run by the EURO as the model has locked in on a landfall somewhere from Florida to the South Carolina coast.
it is looking very ominous potentially for the Southeast United States coast and I say that with all great concern! Natually, comparisons with Hugo 1989 are going to come after this 0Z run. So, anywhere from South Florida up to the South Carolina coast looks like a target area for the EURO as the model has shown now for the past couple of run cycles. We are now within a week or so from now of this monster approaching the region! My, my what an upcoming week this potentially could be around here! WOW!

it is concerning granted, but I don't think you can say any model is 'locked on' to anything more than 5 days out. And really if you want to say this particular model is locked on anything you can't say it's locked on anything but South Carolina, at the moment,if you want to get specific. Maybe it's just semantics, I mean you can't say a model is locked on to an area covering 3 states and a thousand miles. Maybe 'narrowed down' would be a better phrase. I'm also a little skeptical of the extreme size and to some degree the strength being forecasted currently. It's a pretty darned small system right now with a fair amount of fluctuations going on I know they can grow some in size but I've never seen one expand as these models are predicting. Just my two cents though. We shall see.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET run:

[hurricaneCW]

Euro starting to settle in on the upper air pattern over the continent at 144, with a progressive trough in the east. If it holds at 120 you can count on it.

Kind of a scary lose-lose situation among Euro/Gfs, in both cases ridging builds overhead and to the east preventing an OTS track.

For the gfs part of the trough gets left behind and eventually steers Irma further north. The Euro doesn't have a clear cut off but there's still a weakness created underneath the building ridge that forces Irma NW as well except further south.

My best bet if landfall does occur would be the Carolinas somewhere between an Isabel/Hugo track.

[USTropics]

The last four operational runs of the GFS have trended west:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

5am AST Saturday NHC track is the big white line. Models through 5 days. NHC cone also included. ECMO is the high resolution Euro. EExx are Euro ensemble members.