ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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BZSTORM
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2801 Postby BZSTORM » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:41 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
BZSTORM wrote:Been busy today so catching up on advisories etc today. Question today is what is A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE? New tech? Used in what conditions?
Mentioned in the 8pm EDT advisory.
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017
...CORE OF MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SUCCESSFULLY SAMPLED THE EYEWALL OF MARIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
from discussion: We are fortunate tonight to have an Air Force and a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft sampling Maria. In fact, a Coyote unmanned aerial
vehicle launched from the NOAA P3 aircraft successfully measured
winds in the eyewall. Data from these platforms indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

I just never heard of this ""drone" before and curious how this works and if it is "better" or "Not" to regular dropsonde dropped direct from Hurr Hunter.

I include the data from it here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119222&start=360#p2648055

Edit:

Here's a closer look with last ob it reported noted:

https://i.imgur.com/2KkPuDl.jpg

I'm working on integrating the data into my recon system in real time. It will take some time though.

About Coyote...

From Raytheon:
http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/coyote/

From NOAA:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keynotes/keyno ... rades.html

I just finished preparing the icon I will eventually be using in the system:
Image
It can fly into the eyewall down near the ocean's surface where ordinary aircraft can't for safety. A dropsonde simply falls with a little parachute. With a lot of wind, it can travel a long horizontal distance, but it's along for the ride. Gravity and wind guide it. A Coyote can actually maneuver.

From NOAA link:

"The Coyote, a small aircraft launched from the belly of the P-3, is capable of maneuvering in the most violent regions of a hurricane, collecting data to help improve accuracy of current storm conditions and eventually forecasts. Because hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean water, information collected at the interface of atmosphere and ocean is vital to the understanding and prediction of a storm’s strength."

You can see the flight path in the images I created. And if you want to see the data, including the mapping options:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&identifier=Coyote(Maria)&mission=WA&agency=NOAA&aircraft=2&month=09&day=22&product=hdob

That link might eventually change. If it does, go here and look for Coyote:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... asked=2017
Because I haven't coded the system to allow for Coyote, I had to change the raw HDOBs to read as if they were from a P-3. First, I will fix that. Perhaps in the next couple of days for that. Then I will create a live system to gather the data for Coyote in real time, when available. That part will take awhile. Right now I don't think it goes out into publicly released HDOBs so I have to build a system to gather it from a NOAA server like how my radar system works. The HDOBs do not currently include the NOAA mission it launched from, so that's an extra thing I have to consider when storing the data.


thanks Chris for as always a clear and understandable explanation for us that are always learning about storms, tracking and the tech used that makes sense. Also thanks again for all your work on your website tropicalatlantic I have the tracking page pinned to top of my storm bookmarks.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2802 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:42 am

Higher rain rate reported on this pass thru the eyewall.
Approaching 40 mm/hr. Previous pass was about 26 mm/hr.

Drop at surface reporting 77 knots.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2803 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:46 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2804 Postby Rail Dawg » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:09 am

The 8AM NHC advisory isn't out yet.

9AM CST here in Houston.

Wonder what they're up to?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2805 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:19 am

Rail Dawg wrote:The 8AM NHC advisory isn't out yet.

9AM CST here in Houston.

Wonder what they're up to?


No active warnings, thus no intermediate advisories.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2806 Postby Rail Dawg » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:44 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:The 8AM NHC advisory isn't out yet.

9AM CST here in Houston.

Wonder what they're up to?


No active warnings, thus no intermediate advisories.


Ahh very good.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2807 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:30 am

seeing that now 25 dead on Dominica. This looks at least as bad as David was
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2808 Postby stormreader » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:35 am

Alyono wrote:seeing that now 25 dead on Dominica. This looks at least as bad as David was



Excellent comparison. Gives you an idea of the importance of Maria. The most important storm for the Caribbean Islands (in general) since David??? Hard to make generalizations, but if you go with that, you're saying the most important Antilles storm in 38 years. David was a monster down there. Killed over 2,000 I think in DR and came in at about 150 mph. Was a large storm also.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2809 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:41 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2810 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:45 am

What are some thoughts about a possible NC hit?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2811 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:08 am

We're going to get better data starting later today so we should hopefully be able to pin down a potential NC impact (or not) over the next couple days.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2812 Postby Jelff » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:10 am

The map link below will display a Google + GIS map with aerial photos showing post-Maria hurricane damage in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The photos were taken yesterday (September 22) by NOAA. Over the next few days NOAA is expected to take aerial photos of portions of Puerto Rico and this same map link will also display those aerials.

If you click “Map Tips” in the upper left corner of the map then you will easily see how to search the map using the provided coordinates and see some of the other areas with significant damage.

The map is displayed by Gmap4. I am the developer of that enhanced Google map viewer and have produced this map as a public service.

Map link: https://goo.gl/NKK5XA
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2813 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:33 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
712 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper ridge is expected to prevail Monday night
through Wednesday from the Great Lakes across the Northeast Conus co-
located with surface high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off upper low
(400-200mb) is progged to drop SE from the nrn Gulf Coast to the FL
peninsula. The strength of the ridge and the presence of the upper
low is potentially complicating the situation with Hurricane Maria.
This is resulting in a westward shift in the track with the 23/00z
global models, with the tropical cyclone taking a turn toward the NW
and heading toward and approaching the Outer Banks during the
Wednesday/Wednesday night time-frame per 23/00z ECMWF/GFS. Note the
23/00z CMC appears too fast. Monitor the latest official forecast
tracks from the National Hurricane Center. This more westward track
would bring an increasing threat of more wind/higher PoPs along the
coast by midweek. For now, PoPs and sky cover have been nudged up. A
vigorous trough eventually pushes through the Great Lakes
Thursday/Thursday night, breaking down the ridge and pushing Maria
well offshore. The associated cold front crosses the area late
Thursday/Thursday night, resulting in cooler conditions late in the
forecast period.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2814 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:03 pm

Jelff wrote:The map link below ...



How about G Earth compatible files and aerial view tiles?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2815 Postby Jelff » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:31 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Jelff wrote:The map link below ...


How about G Earth compatible files and aerial view tiles?


NOAA provides the aerials as 'xyz' map tiles.
Any software that understands that tiling scheme can display the aerials.

Here is their Get Capabilities file:
https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/tile ... r.php/wmts

The weird thing is that NOAA claims their tiles comply with the WMTS tiling spec.
That is not true.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2816 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:08 pm

Hey guys,

Where can I get a live ACE tracker for Maria? WeatherBell used to have a page for ACE but I think now they make you pay for that.

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2817 Postby NotSparta » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:17 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Hey guys,

Where can I get a live ACE tracker for Maria? WeatherBell used to have a page for ACE but I think now they make you pay for that.

Thanks!


I use http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php but Ryan Maue relocated the WXBell one to http://wx.graphics/tropical/
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2818 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:19 pm

NotSparta wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Hey guys,

Where can I get a live ACE tracker for Maria? WeatherBell used to have a page for ACE but I think now they make you pay for that.

Thanks!


I use http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php but Ryan Maue relocated the WXBell one to http://wx.graphics/tropical/


Oh I was mistaken about WeatherBell. Thank you so much for providing this!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2819 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:43 pm

Any ideas as to why the structure of Maria is so weird? Ever since PR it seems like the eye has had “two eyes” inside spinning around and the west side has strong convection while the northeast side is very weak.
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