ATL: IRMA - Models

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. Well, a very disturbing 0Z run by the EURO as the model has locked in on a landfall somewhere from Florida to the South Carolina coast.
it is looking very ominous potentially for the Southeast United States coast and I say that with all great concern! Natually, comparisons with Hugo 1989 are going to come after this 0Z run. So, anywhere from South Florida up to the South Carolina coast looks like a target area for the EURO as the model has shown now for the past couple of run cycles. We are now within a week or so from now of this monster approaching the region! My, my what an upcoming week this potentially could be around here! WOW!

it is concerning granted, but I don't think you can say any model is 'locked on' to anything more than 5 days out. And really if you want to say this particular model is locked on anything you can't say it's locked on anything but South Carolina, at the moment,if you want to get specific. Maybe it's just semantics, I mean you can't say a model is locked on to an area covering 3 states and a thousand miles. Maybe 'narrowed down' would be a better phrase. I'm also a little skeptical of the extreme size and to some degree the strength being forecasted currently. It's a pretty darned small system right now with a fair amount of fluctuations going on I know they can grow some in size but I've never seen one expand as these models are predicting. Just my two cents though. We shall see.

First of all I respect your opinion, even though you are chastising me on here. I'm just here the offer my thoughts as a longtime member of 7 years on Storm2K. I am here only analyzing the situation shown by the Euro for now the past couple of run cycles with Irma getting uncomfortably close along the Southeast U.S. coast. So, I will not get into a verbal spat about what I am discussing here. Are you the Storm2K police or something of that nature coming after me like this so unnecessarily I might add?

Look, I am well aware these are model runs. They will always change. I have been in this business too long to know all the things this science brings us. It is what it is a science. We are here to use the tools we have to analyze and assess the atmosphere the best we can.

I am on this site to just offer my thoughts for which I have for over seven years as a member on Storm2K.

I do not live and die for with these models. They are just a guide.. I will be mindful of using terms like "trends" or "locking on"as you are crucifying me for here for using.

But, anyway, be safe and have a wonderful holiday weekend.

[USTropics]

06z GFS running, trough looks to be cut off a bit sooner this run:

[USTropics]

Last four trends of the operational GFS at 150 hours:

[xironman]

Last four trends of the operational GFS at 150 hours:

The GFS strikes me as a late fall pattern, these tend to fall apart earlier in the season.

[USTropics]

Heading north, blocked in once again this run:

[USTropics]

Slight west of north heading, will make landfall somewhere in the NE on this run again:

[AdamFirst]

Anyone else feel like the GFS is being too fast with this storm?

[USTropics]

06z GFS has landfall:

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

Thursday-Saturday...The forecast for late week, and especially into
next weekend hinges largely upon the speed at which the eastern
CONUS trough lifts out to the N-NE. The 00Z operational runs of the
ECM/CMC show this taking place faster than the GFS. This allows the
post frontal surface high to link up with the Atlantic ridge more
quickly, which in turn brings major Hurricane Irma uncomfortably
close to Florida by next Saturday. A slower solution per the GFS
would leave more of a weakness in the ridge, and an earlier turn
toward the north. The global ensembles continue to show significant
spread between the eastern US seaboard and western Atlantic Ocean.
Since any potential impact remains out at Day 8+, it remains much
too early to have any sort of handle on whether the system will
directly impact Florida, or, for that matter, any spot along the
east coast of the US, and will remain the case well into next week.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Ulrich
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi

[dizzyfish]

Snipped to remove the unrelated text......

557
FXUS62 KTBW 020805
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
405 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

The middle and later part of the week become a bit more
challenging. There is good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF
and Canadian that a fairly significant amplification to the
longwave pattern will develop over the central/eastern
CONUS during the middle of the week. This deep troughing for
early September will drive a cold front southward to the
eastern Gulf and at least northern Florida. The amplitude of
the trough is somewhat in question due to its depth and the
time of year...would not be surprised if we see this
feature de-amplify a bit in coming model runs. However, the
agreement among models is worth noting and taking serious.
Obviously a frontal system dropping into our area is
problematic this time of year due to the potential for more
widespread heavy rainfall. Will have to monitor closely
model trends related to this front. The ECMWF is less
aggressive with its southward progress and keeps our entire
area in a wetter pattern through the end of the forecast
period, while the GFS allows some of our northern areas to
become post-frontal with arrival of drier air. As mentioned
above, my gut feeling is that less southern progress of this
front is more likely, but we will just need to monitor.
Either way, some areas of heavy rainfall are likely to
complicate our flooding concerns Wednesday into Thursday and
Friday.

Final note will be with respect to Hurricane Irma out in the
Atlantic. The normal uptick in rumors and concern related to
long range model solutions has already begun with this
storm. Please keep in mind that this hurricane is currently
located more than 2000 miles from Florida. That is a long
way away! The numerical weather models are going to show
changeable solutions/tracks/etc related to this storm over
the coming days. It is very important to remember not to
focus on one particular model or track solution. Very subtle
changes in the atmosphere and/or the structure of Irma will
have large impacts on the downstream simulations. The
National Weather Service will be closely monitoring the
evolution and model trends related to Irma through the
week...but it is simply to early to predict where this storm
might end up a week or more from now. It is important not
to get caught up in speculation that might lead to improper
decisions. The best way to protect yourself and your family
with respect to any tropical cyclone is to simply be
prepared. Have a plan of action for your family...and be
ready to put that plan into action should the time come that
a tropical cyclone threatens your area.

Have a great Saturday everyone!

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka

[jlauderdal]

Anyone else feel like the GFS is being too fast with this storm?

the euro has been performing better so far, doesn't mean gfs wont be right next week and beyond but for now and as nhc has been doing, stay to the left of the gfs until something changes with its performance

[Nimbus]

Last four trends of the operational GFS at 150 hours:

The Euro is also starting to stabilize with a track north of Puerto Rico.
Beyond 150 hours is where the models diverge with different steering patterns.
If there is even a 10 percent chance of a Texas style disaster in your area it becomes critical to local emergency preparedness so a large model spread is appropriate.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro run

[tolakram]

06z GFS

[caneman]

Anyone else feel like the GFS is being too fast with this storm?

the euro has been performing better so far, doesn't mean gfs wont be right next week and beyond but for now and as nhc has been doing, stay to the left of the gfs until something changes with its performance

I don't think we can say either is right yet. Initially the Euro took Irma across the Keys and into the Gulf, the GFS has had the Northern track landfall and or OTS. Think the jury is still out. Well know better in a few days.
Surprisingly close modeling for 8 days out final landfall. Seems someone in the U.S. will likely get smacked

[tolakram]

Always the blend IMO, even when the GFS seems out to lunch the blend ends up closer. This does seem a lot like Ike as well, however Ike was years ago and the models have improved greatly since then. We need to get within 5 or 6 days to really determine track near the US IMO. Northern Islands should be ready for this.

Not sure if this was posted before.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903883643025842176

[otowntiger]

Good morning everyone. Well, a very disturbing 0Z run by the EURO as the model has locked in on a landfall somewhere from Florida to the South Carolina coast.
it is looking very ominous potentially for the Southeast United States coast and I say that with all great concern! Natually, comparisons with Hugo 1989 are going to come after this 0Z run. So, anywhere from South Florida up to the South Carolina coast looks like a target area for the EURO as the model has shown now for the past couple of run cycles. We are now within a week or so from now of this monster approaching the region! My, my what an upcoming week this potentially could be around here! WOW!

it is concerning granted, but I don't think you can say any model is 'locked on' to anything more than 5 days out. And really if you want to say this particular model is locked on anything you can't say it's locked on anything but South Carolina, at the moment,if you want to get specific. Maybe it's just semantics, I mean you can't say a model is locked on to an area covering 3 states and a thousand miles. Maybe 'narrowed down' would be a better phrase. I'm also a little skeptical of the extreme size and to some degree the strength being forecasted currently. It's a pretty darned small system right now with a fair amount of fluctuations going on I know they can grow some in size but I've never seen one expand as these models are predicting. Just my two cents though. We shall see.

First of all I respect your opinion, even though you are chastising me on here. I'm just here the offer my thoughts as a longtime member of 7 years on Storm2K. I am here only analyzing the situation shown by the Euro for now the past couple of run cycles with Irma getting uncomfortably close along the Southeast U.S. coast. So, I will not get into a verbal spat about what I am discussing here. Are you the Storm2K police or something of that nature coming after me like this so unnecessarily I might add?

Look, I am well aware these are model runs. They will always change. I have been in this business too long to know all the things this science brings us. It is what it is a science. We are here to use the tools we have to analyze and assess the atmosphere the best we can.

I am on this site to just offer my thoughts for which I have for over seven years as a member on Storm2K.

I do not live and die for with these models. They are just a guide.. I will be mindful of using terms like "trends" or "locking on"as you are crucifying me for here for using.

But, anyway, be safe and have a wonderful holiday weekend.

wow did not mean to sound like I'm chastising /crucifying anyone- just pointing out a difference of opinion in semantics, as I believe I said. Sorry to sound any thing less than civil. It's all good- I've been a member on here since 2004 and do much more lurking than posting. Maybe I'll go back to posting less. You have a good safe weekend too and let's hope and pray that Irma does what I think she will and turn out to sea.

[caneman]

Being in Florida I don't like the look of that. Hopefully it's like 90 percent of storms and turns North by Bahamas. Of course -removed- it away means I'm likely wishing it on a northern state. Sorry Northern friends.

[USTropics]

A large number of the 06z GFS ensembles have concentrated near NC:

[SFLcane]

On that note eps is recurving away from Florida this morning. GEFS also shifted north. ECMWF op on its own

Decent consensus now Irma will end up somewhere in the Bahamas though