ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

Leave. You don't want to be anywhere near this thing.

if he's in Victoria, he's well inland. Not in an evacuation zone, unless he's by a waterway

Fair enough, but considering power outages, rain-caused flooding (and additional outage risk because of saturated ground), wind, and severe weather threat, my UNPROFESSIONAL advice would be to leave if you can. Better safe than sorry in a storm like this. Now Alyono, on the other hand, IS a professional, so listen to him over me, lol.

[floridasun78]

here news live stream from http://www.kztv10.com/category/293687/live-stream

[txwatcher91]

Per recon the eye is contracting, down to 10nm across and the core continues to heat up, around 7C now. Expect the winds to start ramping up quickly from here on out and the pressure to crash soon.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the pattern transition from banding to CDO dominant is now complete. Bombs away.

Yes sir! Intense CDO plainly dominant. Also, we will see the eye contract even more as the night progresses. Harvey is truly about to really bomb out. Frightening how intense Harvey is about to get. Cat 4 most definitely possible before landfall.

My prayers to everyone in Texas who is inthe path of this dangerous cyclone!
Please take every single precaution to protect your life and those of your loved ones!

[verbs]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

I just now registered on this site after lurking for years just to tell you to get the heck out of there.

[RL3AO]

I'll check in tomorrow morning (or if I wake up in the middle of the night). I wouldn't be surprised to see the 5am advisory forecast a cat 4 at landfall.

[Blinhart]

Just heard on TWC that they haven't seen any winds over 85MPH, I could of sworn I saw a few reading over 85 MPH.

[tolakram]

IR loop
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=20&quality=92&palette=ir4.pal

[txwatcher91]

The only saving grace is this may reach peak intensity before landfall and an EWRC might begin.. The bad news is the EWRC would likely expand the size of the wind field and rain too.. but it would limit the winds somewhat. I think this will be peaking in the next 12-18 hours, by early tomorrow afternoon it should be near peak strength IMO, possibly a 160mph 915mb cat 5.

[GeneratorPower]

Can this thing be awesome and fearsome at the same time?

Welcome to the hobby of hurricane watching. It is. And they are.

[txwatcher91]

Most recent IR shows a very symmetrical CDO with cold clouds extending well into the northern semicircle now.

[Texas Snowman]

Another friendly reminder here to be cordial on the forums, particularly with our Pro Mets. As I stated earlier today, we greatly value their presence here.

Everyone might want to refamilarize themselves with #12 below.

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12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

[TheProfessor]

Per recon the eye is contracting, down to 10nm across and the core continues to heat up, around 7C now. Expect the winds to start ramping up quickly from here on out and the pressure to crash soon.

Every time I see nm mention I nano meters pop into my head and I'm like, wait a minute, that doesn't make since, then I'm like oh yeah, Nautical miles lol.

[ForeverFlorida90s]

Something tells me this will become a category 5 just a eerie feeling looking at it develop

[CryHavoc]

The only saving grace is this may reach peak intensity before landfall and an EWRC might begin.. The bad news is the EWRC would likely expand the size of the wind field and rain too.. but it would limit the winds somewhat. I think this will be peaking in the next 12-18 hours, by early tomorrow afternoon it should be near peak strength IMO, possibly a 160mph 915mb cat 5.

I think at this point talking about the storm as if it's "got a bright side" could lead people in the wrong direction.

This is going to be a monster and there aren't really any "best case" scenarios for a major hurricane landfalling near populated areas.

By the same token, if you're going to talk about Cat 5s, it would help to know where you're extrapolating that data from. Not saying it's impossible -- just want to know why you're thinking in that direction.

I know it's my first post here, but this seems to be a more scientific forum so I'm wondering where sub 930mb forecasts suddenly came from when none of the models show that.

[Exalt]

Just heard on TWC that they haven't seen any winds over 85MPH, I could of sworn I saw a few reading over 85 MPH.

Maybe they meant 85kt? Current advisory is at 85 mph. Also while useful, TWC can be wrong sometimes. I'd stick to NHC for now.

[AubreyStorm]

From NASA Space!

[Exalt]

The only saving grace is this may reach peak intensity before landfall and an EWRC might begin.. The bad news is the EWRC would likely expand the size of the wind field and rain too.. but it would limit the winds somewhat. I think this will be peaking in the next 12-18 hours, by early tomorrow afternoon it should be near peak strength IMO, possibly a 160mph 915mb cat 5.

I think at this point talking about the storm as if it's "got a bright side" could lead people in the wrong direction.

This is going to be a monster and there aren't really any "best case" scenarios for a major hurricane landfalling near populated areas.

By the same token, if you're going to talk about Cat 5s, it would help to know where you're extrapolating that data from. Not saying it's impossible -- just want to know why you're thinking in that direction.

I know it's my first post here, but this seems to be a more scientific forum so I'm wondering where sub 930mb forecasts suddenly came from when none of the models show that.

Models aren't very great at predicting rapid intensification. Hunches are also a thing. Patricia's extreme intensification nor Matthew's were really expected as models were very slow at readjusting and adapting to the rates of intensification. The conditions in the Gulf are good enough to harbor a Cat 5, the main factor in if it gets there is time.

[GeneratorPower]

I hate to be a wet blanket on discussion but I really don't think we should be giving stay/go advice on evacuation for individual parties. Individuals should be paying attention to local and state government evacuation orders. The orders are very clear. I'd rather see people pointed to sources of local info than be told to do x or z.

[tropicwatch]

Kermit is approaching, hopefully will get a good ne quadrant sample.