ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is down to 945, yet the winds support no higher than, generously, 85 kt (really 80 kt).

I wonder if there is some type of inversion keeping the winds at 1100 ft from reaching the surface

The only eyewall sonde so far hasn't shown one thus far, but its certainly possible one shows up with further sampling. Recon has a pretty flat gradient for the most part on the first pass, but I'd still expect something above 80-85 kt. Even AH77 would expect 100 kt for a 945 mb pressure and 1008 mb OCI.

At this point, I would go with 85 kt for the intensity, since the storm is so large perhaps the highest SFMR is not being measured. Even flight-level winds don't support the current intensity though.

[Alyono]

I wonder if there is some type of inversion keeping the winds at 1100 ft from reaching the surface

The only eyewall sonde so far hasn't shown one thus far, but its certainly possible one shows up with further sampling. Recon has a pretty flat gradient for the most part on the first pass, but I'd still expect something above 80-85 kt. Even AH77 would expect 100 kt for a 945 mb pressure and 1008 mb OCI.

At this point, I would go with 85 kt for the intensity, since the storm is so large perhaps the highest SFMR is not being measured. Even flight-level winds don't support the current intensity though.

it's hard to go 85 kt though when we had 125 kts measured at 1100 ft

[Alyono]

This is also moving due north

[1900hurricane]

Microwave imagery does seem to suggest that the core is reorganizing. That might be at least part of the reason for the somewhat flat pressure gradient.

[flamingosun]

This thing is big. From the 5 o'clock advisory:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

[seahawkjd]

This is also moving due north

That was expected right? Or is it happening faster than they thought?

[Alyono]

This is also moving due north

That was expected right? Or is it happening faster than they thought?

think it has made the northward turn about a half degree farther east than it should have

[txwatcher91]

This is also moving due north

That was expected right? Or is it happening faster than they thought?

think it has made the northward turn about a half degree farther east than it should have

It could also be due to convection finally wrapping around the E side causing a temporary N motion. Goes 16 looks like it may be going back NNW again but next recon pass should be helpful.

[bahamaswx]

Has there really been a significant amount of shear over her since leaving PR? Surprised she still hasn't really fully recovered otherwise.

[Buck]

The forecast track as of 5PM would have Maria building up enough ACE for the remainder of her life to put her also over 40. We've never had a season on record with 3 storms each with over 40 ACE. I wonder if she will make it.

[sweetpea]

I still haven't heard from my dad or any of my family. I did find out that my dad's barrio is extensively damaged, it is totally underwater and all wooden structures are gone. His house is poured concrete, I am hoping it is just flooded. He did go to my uncles house in Salinas, his house does sit higher. His town Salinas has extensive damage, a quote from the governor of PR "that they still could not communicate with the southeastern part of the island, which was hit earliest and hardest by the storm." So our family is in waiting mode, so stressful I am just tired.

I hope people have been able to check in here from Puerto Rico, I haven't really had a chance to go back and look. Please keep prayers coming!!

Just an update, I finally heard from my dad today. I only spoke to him for a couple of minutes because other people were waiting to use the phone. He did say Salinas and Ponce both look like war zones. He said in his 81 yrs he has never been through anything like this. We still have quite a bit of family that we are waiting to hear from, but it is a start. Thank you for all your prayers!!!

[aperson]

Has there really been a significant amount of shear over her since leaving PR? Surprised she still hasn't really fully recovered otherwise.

It has been dealing with mid level shear all day, although recently convection on the NE side closed off enough to allow it to deepen in spite of this shear, as can be seen on GOES-16 IR currently.

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/911746391613067267

[ConvergenceZone]

This may have already been asked, but does anyone know the status of poster CycloneEye? and whether or not he's okay? I know that he lives in Puerto Rico

[GCANE]

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde and new vortex message both at 944mb. No real change with winds that I saw. Movement from last fix is ever so slightly E of due North.

URNT12 KNHC 240043
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017
A. 24/00:29:50Z
B. 26 deg 41 min N
072 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2627 m
D. 85 kt
E. 036 deg 18 nm
F. 127 deg 97 kt
G. 036 deg 23 nm
H. 944 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 19 C / 3040 m
K. -3 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C28
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1715A MARIA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 147 / 35 NM 22:52:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 230 / 16 KT

[txwatcher91]

Pressure was 944 with a 16kt surface wind so probably 943. That’s 2-3mb drop in one pass. This may steadily intensify overnight.

[sfgal]

I still haven't heard from my dad or any of my family. I did find out that my dad's barrio is extensively damaged, it is totally underwater and all wooden structures are gone. His house is poured concrete, I am hoping it is just flooded. He did go to my uncles house in Salinas, his house does sit higher. His town Salinas has extensive damage, a quote from the governor of PR "that they still could not communicate with the southeastern part of the island, which was hit earliest and hardest by the storm." So our family is in waiting mode, so stressful I am just tired.

I hope people have been able to check in here from Puerto Rico, I haven't really had a chance to go back and look. Please keep prayers coming!!

Just an update, I finally heard from my dad today. I only spoke to him for a couple of minutes because other people were waiting to use the phone. He did say Salinas and Ponce both look like war zones. He said in his 81 yrs he has never been through anything like this. We still have quite a bit of family that we are waiting to hear from, but it is a start. Thank you for all your prayers!!!

Sweetpea, I am sure that despite all of your justified concerns and worries about the devastation in Puerto Rico, I you must feel immense relief being able to communicate with your dad at last. I lurk here, but reading your posts resonated with me, as I had a similar terrifying inability to communicate with my parents after Katrina. I am keeping you and your dad in my thoughts.

[flamingosun]

The below Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probablilties image for Maria shows the edge of T.S. Lee's winds possibly up against the edge of Maria's. Yes, I know it's a probabilities graphic, but it made me wonder if Lee's presence might have an impact on Maria at some point. They're pretty far apart, but still, I wondered.



Could anyone say what the likelihood is of one of them affecting the other, and how?

[bghowie]

time from me. Thank you to responders!

1. Convection has been heavy on the west side today. Can this in any way pull the center to the west a bit?
2. The ULL...is it having any effect right now on Maria's outflow or steering? What happens if the ULL retrogrades west and is stronger?
3. LEE...any effect at all on Maria? Could a stronger Lee squeeze the high to the west further? Would it break down the high and go more east?
4. JOSE...is it [i]REALLY[i] gone or still enough left to pull this thing east?

Thank you so much for the responses. I'm trying to learn a bit more.

[Michele B]

I still haven't heard from my dad or any of my family. I did find out that my dad's barrio is extensively damaged, it is totally underwater and all wooden structures are gone. His house is poured concrete, I am hoping it is just flooded. He did go to my uncles house in Salinas, his house does sit higher. His town Salinas has extensive damage, a quote from the governor of PR "that they still could not communicate with the southeastern part of the island, which was hit earliest and hardest by the storm." So our family is in waiting mode, so stressful I am just tired.

I hope people have been able to check in here from Puerto Rico, I haven't really had a chance to go back and look. Please keep prayers coming!!

Just an update, I finally heard from my dad today. I only spoke to him for a couple of minutes because other people were waiting to use the phone. He did say Salinas and Ponce both look like war zones. He said in his 81 yrs he has never been through anything like this. We still have quite a bit of family that we are waiting to hear from, but it is a start. Thank you for all your prayers!!!

Wonderful to hear, sweetpea!

Still praying for your family, and others who have not yet heard from family members.