ATL: HARVEY - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

CMC drops back to the Gulf at 48 and comes back up and hits around Beaumont-Port Arthur as an average tropical storm.

It has much of Houston getting 24+ by 36 and certainly by 48 hours on its track. Way worse than people think because the scale doesn't go high enough. No doubt some of the recent rain is factored in because it's valid 7pm local time and SETX has gotten drenched in the last 4 hours.

Doesn't look like the Canadian really factored in much rain in the Houston area through midnight


24 hr amounts on the 00z are 5-8in across SE Tx

48 hr amounts are at 14-18

72 hr looks like it shows that most of the rain is done for the Houston area and it ends up with 20-27in

Here is the 144 hr rainfall amounts from the Canadian

[Steve]

It's got those double bands though just not as much rain as what's falling. NAVGEM also running and out to Brownsville at 42 hours. Looks like it might get offshore. That just means continued inundation for points to the north. Maybe some of the 50-60" isolated predictions won't be overestimated? It ran a couple of runs similar to the ECMWF recently, so it might telegraph what that's gonna do.

[BRweather]

Probably the most shocking thing I have seen is the 00z GFS Ensembles

Pretty different

[Steve]

NAVGEM 102 back on shore a bit up the coast from original landfall point. ECMWF next

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=391

EC initialization looks close and is at 993mb on low res.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Steve, got back from the saints game so just catching up on the latest developments with some of the models. Interesting to say the least. NAM being the NAM got my attention for sure, navgem as well. HWRF with a massive shift east compared to it's 18z run. You think the system that the gfs and some others show hitting cabo next week have to do with Harvey moving due north instead of ne once in the gulf. Maybe helps to break down that sw ridge a little bit more ?

[BRweather]

The big factor still remains the ridge to the west.

Hr 72 GFS and EC still completely disagree with it's strength

And on EC the trough looks to be further south

[Steve]

I don't know Mike. Euro is running and now up to 72 hours. It's crawling the Texas coast which means unlimited moisture. That can't be good for Galveston, Houston or The Triangle. Everyone has been using terms like historic and whatever, but I'd give infinity to one that none of us will ever see another storm approximating Harvey.

I don't think we see much here though if there ends up being a NE component later, I could see Lake Charles, Abbeville and maybe over to Crowley taking a lick. Euro should be finished in about 20 minutes. I'll say if it has Harvey in relatively the same spot as it does at 72, a lot of people need to get out of there or face being flooded in.

[BRweather]

EC definitely trended east some. Not a lot, but noticeable

[ATCcane]

Euro has been quite persistent and shows a nightmare for southeast Texas. Many of the other models along with GEFS seem to have similar ideas....ugh

[Steve]

96 hours, Euro at 992mb over Baytown and Pasadena area. Damn. That's likely really bad news for all of you in The Triangle and H Metro. I don't have EC rainfall totals but someone will. Sorry for y'all caught in this for the next few days. And I hope for y'all that the Euro is wrong.

[msp]

GFS ensembles + Euro are awful for Houston. Wind on top of flooding could prevent proper drainage of the bayous into the bay. plus any needed evacs would be nigh impossible at this point

[smooth2904]

Seems like a lot of the models are trending east. What's the deal with the GFS?! You think the NHC is putting any stock into it at the moment?

[bamajammer4eva]

Seems like a lot of the models are trending east. What's the deal with the GFS?! You think the NHC is putting any stock into at the moment?

Looks like they are going a little left of the model average AKA the TVCN which is the dark grey line with squares here (Edited to change link away from being time sensitive)
http://imgur.com/CG4PJfY

This site has around 39" Thur @ 10 AM. Center is just N of Houston at that time 994mb . This site is still loading

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

[Steve]

96 hours, Euro at 992mb over Baytown and Pasadena area. Damn. That's likely really bad news for all of you in The Triangle and H Metro. I don't have EC rainfall totals but someone will. Sorry for y'all caught in this for the next few days. And I hope for y'all that the Euro is wrong.

Edit to say watch the bands closely. The onshore flow already will have the bays and deltas full and upstream bayous. Drainage will fill up neighborhoods, cars and houses. If you are worried or threatened, seek higher ground.

[BRweather]

To all the Texas residents having to go through this, I am truly sorry. Here in Louisiana we just passed our 1 year anniversary of the great flood of 2016. It is going to be extremely tough and frustrating, but just stay positive. I feel your pain watching the models and radar wondering when will it stop. Stay strong and be safe!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ens showing the feature meanding and showing a S/westerly epac moist feed.


note the gulf moisture surge the ens also show.

Basically shows a meandering feature 7 days.

[BRweather]

UKMET ensembles

00z/26, 12z/26, 00z/27

[Alyono]

96 hours, Euro at 992mb over Baytown and Pasadena area. Damn. That's likely really bad news for all of you in The Triangle and H Metro. I don't have EC rainfall totals but someone will. Sorry for y'all caught in this for the next few days. And I hope for y'all that the Euro is wrong.

Edit to say watch the bands closely. The onshore flow already will have the bays and deltas full and upstream bayous. Drainage will fill up neighborhoods, cars and houses. If you are worried or threatened, seek higher ground.

not exactly higher ground to seek

[BRweather]

If you are looking for a trend in the ECMWF ensembles, you can forget about it

[BRweather]

There still remains big differences between the GFS and EC in mainly the ridge building in from the east. And some with the trough. Here is 00z Wednesday