ATL: HARVEY - Models

[BRweather]

The GFS is the western outlier right now.

[BRweather]

[BRweather]

If the GFS is right, wow what a break for east Texas. Focus would shift west for rain, but Houston area needs this to end.

Not even in the same ball park as EC, UKMET, NAM, CMC, ETC.

[Nimbus]

Looks about stationary this morning, so GFS could verify.
Even Victoria is making out better than being stuck in those strong feeder bands.
Lots of power outages in Houston with the saturated soil and squalls causing line damage.

[BRweather]

Looks about stationary this morning, so GFS could verify.
Even Victoria is making out better than being stuck in those strong feeder bands.
Lots of power outages in Houston with the saturated soil and squalls causing line damage.

On radar the center of circulation does not look stationary. Seems to be moving southeast at a low speed

[stormlover2013]

Gfs ensembles is totally different than the operational, Gfs is doing horrible right now

[BRweather]

Gfs ensembles is totally different than the operational, Gfs is doing horrible right now

Yes they do not seem to be on the same page one bit

[Nimbus]

Gfs ensembles is totally different than the operational, Gfs is doing horrible right now

Which means according to recent posts, people might not want to wait till the hatchet idea up in the attic becomes useful?

Official recommendation for Houston

"Remember to stay away from downed power lines. If your home has flooded above the level of its electrical sockets, call a licensed electrician before attempting to restore power."

[tolakram]

0z Euro animation. Once again disastrous for Houston so hopefully this is overdone.

[tolakram]

I think this has been said earlier but I'll say it again. NAVGEM, CMC, Euro, HWRF all now in general agreement with S/SE motion back into the gulf, then east and back inland near Houston. Various intensity solutions and timing differences. GFS agrees with the initial S/SE movement into the gulf but then takes it N and W inland.

[BRweather]

I think this has been said earlier but I'll say it again. NAVGEM, CMC, Euro, HWRF all now in general agreement with S/SE motion back into the gulf, then east and back inland near Houston. Various intensity solutions and timing differences. GFS agrees with the initial S/SE movement into the gulf but then takes it N and W inland.

You can pretty much throw UKMET in that bunch too. GFS is the outlier. Would be a huge win for it if it verifies.

[forecasterjack]

0Z ECMWF re intensifies Harvey over the Gulf and slams it into Houston with hurricane force gusts. That would be unthinkably catastrophic. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

[sphelps8681]

I think this has been said earlier but I'll say it again. NAVGEM, CMC, Euro, HWRF all now in general agreement with S/SE motion back into the gulf, then east and back inland near Houston. Various intensity solutions and timing differences. GFS agrees with the initial S/SE movement into the gulf but then takes it N and W inland.

If I remember correctly the CMC has had this solution for a few runs. Correct me if I am wrong.

[forecasterjack]

I think this has been said earlier but I'll say it again. NAVGEM, CMC, Euro, HWRF all now in general agreement with S/SE motion back into the gulf, then east and back inland near Houston. Various intensity solutions and timing differences. GFS agrees with the initial S/SE movement into the gulf but then takes it N and W inland.

If I remember correctly the CMC has had this solution for a few runs. Correct me if I am wrong.

CMC does move Harvey offshore but doesn't intensify it much. Don't know that that makes sense. Crazy warm waters still and favorable shear environment. https://weather.us/model-charts/can/tex ... 0000z.html

[BRweather]

Well the 06z GFS ensembles surely did not clear anything up.

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082706/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png[/img]

[tolakram]

Well the 06z GFS ensembles surely did not clear anything up.

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082706/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png[/img]

They may have, that clearly favors the right hand track if I am reading it correctly.

[BRweather]

06z RGEM

Does not look pleasant

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017082706/rgem_mslp_pcpn_scus_16.png[/img]

[BRweather]

Well the 06z GFS ensembles surely did not clear anything up.

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017082706/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png[/img]

They may have, that clearly favors the right hand track if I am reading it correctly.

You gotta look at the little red numbers.

And the operational is still way far west. Would still be opposite.

[stormreader]

06z RGEM

Does not look pleasant

This precip future and the Euro look pretty much aligned. Terrible for Houston, but I think flooding for SW La beginning to come into play here. That's Tues. Storm will still be in area for 4 days or more before clearing area, with La on right side. Some rain already in SW La. That track will bring in very much rain from say Tues-Sat for SW La.

[stormreader]

Does not look pleasant

[im g]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017082706/rgem_mslp_pcpn_scus_16.png[/img][/quote]
This precip future and the Euro look pretty much aligned. Terrible for Houston, but I think flooding for SW La beginning to come into play here. That's Tues. Storm will still be in area for 4 days or more before clearing area, with La on right side. Some rain already in SW La. That track will bring in very much rain from say Tues-Sat for SW La.[/quote]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
Also want to show this morning sat pic with huge moisture buildup off Texas coast (which may favor most of the model solutions about Harvey slipping back into coastal waters). In any case, much of this moisture should continue to build there and move up into SW La as well as the Houston metro. Could have serious flooding in SW La if this verifies over the next several days.