ATL: HARVEY - Models

[stormreader]

With system being over land and then possibly along the coast (for several days now), its becoming a "looser" system. Rainfall will gradually develop more toward the east and not consolidate as much around the center. (If it redevelops to Cat 1 in GOM coastal waters perhaps not). But a path along the Texas coast would probably be at Tropical Storm strength with a greater percentage of moisture toward the right side than previously seen. That RGEM model, I think, is reflecting this.

[tolakram]

Does not look pleasant

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017082706/rgem_mslp_pcpn_scus_16.png[/img]

This precip future and the Euro look pretty much aligned. Terrible for Houston, but I think flooding for SW La beginning to come into play here. That's Tues. Storm will still be in area for 4 days or more before clearing area, with La on right side. Some rain already in SW La. That track will bring in very much rain from say Tues-Sat for SW La.[/quote]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
Also want to show this morning sat pic with huge moisture buildup off Texas coast (which may favor most of the model solutions about Harvey slipping back into coastal waters). In any case, much of this moisture should continue to build there and move up into SW La as well as the Houston metro. Could have serious flooding in SW La if this verifies over the next several days.[/quote]

Don't direct link to images, these are worthless just hours or days from now when they change. Upload somewhere first so we have saved images to reference.

This goes for everyone, not just you. If you can't save then just post a link, S2K rules. Thanks.

[hd44]

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017082712/hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png[/img]
HRRR has expanding rain further to the ne today bringing more locations to flooding .

[forecasterjack]

HRRR for tonight. Still POURING in Houston. Horrific https://weather.us/model-charts/rapid-u ... 0700z.html

[drewschmaltz]

By now, this is rather obvious... I feel like we should have had more posts recognizing this as a catastrophic location for landfall. Even when many were trying to focus on the eventual flooding, I didn't see one post that said "this is setting up to put the highest populated areas under the most rain fall for the longest period of time". I feel like someone here should have called that. I'm disappointed in myself for not seeing it. The "wasn't as bad as it could have been" posts were the most obviously premature, but man, doesn't it seem like it should have been more like "this is as bad as it can be".

[BigB0882]

By now, this is rather obvious... I feel like we should have had more posts recognizing this as a catastrophic location for landfall. Even when many were trying to focus on the eventual flooding, I didn't see one post that said "this is setting up to put the highest populated areas under the most rain fall for the longest period of time". I feel like someone here should have called that. I'm disappointed in myself for not seeing it. The "wasn't as bad as it could have been" posts were the most obviously premature, but man, doesn't it seem like it should have been more like "this is as bad as it can be".

People said multiple times that certain runs of the Euro were worst case scenarios. That has been mentioned over and over. It may have slacked off in the last day or two because models moved away from Houston but this has absolutely been said.

[tolakram]

By now, this is rather obvious... I feel like we should have had more posts recognizing this as a catastrophic location for landfall. Even when many were trying to focus on the eventual flooding, I didn't see one post that said "this is setting up to put the highest populated areas under the most rain fall for the longest period of time". I feel like someone here should have called that. I'm disappointed in myself for not seeing it. The "wasn't as bad as it could have been" posts were the most obviously premature, but man, doesn't it seem like it should have been more like "this is as bad as it can be".

Not sure if you meant this to be in the models thread or not. I know that when models forecast the worst possible scenarios I tend to disbelieve due to their performance over the last few years. Moving closer to landfall, though, most of us warned about this, and even commented when some folks were nashing teeth over cat 2 or cat 3 or cat 4, saying that the big story will be flooding.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It's the nam so take it for what it's worth. The 0z and 06z runs had this moving back over the gulf and moving n towards Galveston, the latest 12z run just has it sitting near corpus Christi for days and then moving out west til dissipating. Will be interesting to see if others follow today.

[BRweather]

The NAM has had a completely different solution for the last 4 runs in a row.

Seems to have become very confused. Not weighing it into consideration until it can make up its mind.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS offshore at 24 hours, some deepening at 48 hours. This is east of last run.

[tolakram]

Still west solution. The jump at 54 hours is extremely suspect, as if the GFS is having issues tracking the low. Disparaging comment redacted.

[tolakram]

Correction, now well east of previous run.

[BRweather]

The models are looking more suspect than ever. GFS and NAM seem lost. GFS did come drastically back east, but for all we know it might go back west for 18z run. Need to see more consistency

[ForeverFlorida90s]

Is it possible the system to your East invest 92l is dictating Harvey's movement look at both storms track history look like twin systems. In my opinion I expect Harvey to slowly make his way back to the gulf currently heading south east. May be a change in steering patterns later this week that will allow Harvey to speed up possibly striking Louisiana and cutting through Southeast states while 92l merges with another system on the east coast will be interesting to watch hope for the best for Houston

[BRweather]

Okay so I am seeing accurate results in the HRRR and NAM 3K as they seem to be matching the real time data nicely.

Both are showing this eastward movement that is occurring currently.

14z HRRR has Harvey at the coast in 18 hours.

[BRweather]

Where 14z HRRR has the storm compared to where GFS has the storm at approximately 08z Monday is very different. Much more due east. Hi-res guidance might be the way to go until global guidance can come into better agreement

[BRweather]

Not looking good for SW Louisiana.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

[sphelps8681]

Not looking good for SW Louisiana.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

On the model that would be a Cat 1. Not good for SW La or East Tx.

[BRweather]

Not looking good for SW Louisiana.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_18.png

On the model that would be a Cat 1. Not good for SW La or East Tx.

No that would still only be a TS

[RachelAnna]

When does this appear to move back over the GOM and then back in over Houston? Flooding in Cypress.