ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AubreyStorm]

Cycloneye, you are not going to like this EURO run...yikes.

its taking on a classic florida or florida straights track once it resumes a wnw track..

OMG! Scary! Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

@StuOstro
Just as #Harvey had "that look" as it approached the Caribbean (http://bit.ly/2wSZ4Gt ), so does #Irma as classic, potent Cabo Verde storm

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/902932689912823808

[Aric Dunn]

image couple hours old.. but already the eye is becoming more defined. even more so now on sat.

[AxaltaRacing24]

image couple hours old.. but already the eye is becoming more defined. even more so now on sat.

This thing is getting to work quick. Haven't seen this in years.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Why is ADT's Rapid Weakening Flag on?

Code: Select all

    UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  30 AUG 2017    Time :   181500 UTC
      Lat :   16:28:10 N     Lon :   30:52:31 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.8 /1001.3mb/ 41.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.2     2.1     2.1

 Center Temp : -35.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -44.7C

 Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
              Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.72 ARC in LT GRAY
               at Lat:  15:39:35 N  Lon:  31:52:12 W

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG 

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii : N/A
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1012mb

 Satellite Name :    MSG3
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.2 degrees

[Michele B]

image couple hours old.. but already the eye is becoming more defined. even more so now on sat.

This thing is getting to work quick. Haven't seen this in years.

And to think: A couple of weeks ago I was "complaining" that storms didn't have the classic, signature "comma" look to them anymore....

This one is pretty awesome - and fearsome.

[KWT]

Not sure why Dvorak have a rapid weakening signal on, its clearly not weakening. The convection is weaker so that maybe is having a part to play in that?

Anyway ECM has certainly focused some minds for those in the Caribbean, too early to rule out anywhere getting a hit from irma unfortunately.

[Kazmit]

Irma is looking very impressive this afternoon for only a 45kt storm. Some nice banding taking place. It's getting that classic "saw" look.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like we're gonna have another major soon.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track: The climb in latutude appears over.

AL, 11, 2017083018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 307W, 45, 1004, TS

[KWT]

Actually slightly lost latitude, I was thinking looking at the satelite loops that the convective coverage looked like it had moved slightly south of west recently but you can never tell if your eyes are playing tricks on you!

Models did suggest it would move near due west for a time today, but I'm interested to see the track in the near future because there is a decent WSW surge in the clouds to the north of Irma, and when that happens it suggests there is some decent ridging going on to the north.

[Hurricaneman]

Actually slightly lost latitude, I was thinking looking at the satelite loops that the convective coverage looked like it had moved slightly south of west recently but you can never tell if your eyes are playing tricks on you!

Models did suggest it would move near due west for a time today, but I'm interested to see the track in the near future because there is a decent WSW surge in the clouds to the north of Irma, and when that happens it suggests there is some decent ridging going on to the north.

Also might mean the models will shift south a little in the mid range

[KWT]

Actually slightly lost latitude, I was thinking looking at the satelite loops that the convective coverage looked like it had moved slightly south of west recently but you can never tell if your eyes are playing tricks on you!

Models did suggest it would move near due west for a time today, but I'm interested to see the track in the near future because there is a decent WSW surge in the clouds to the north of Irma, and when that happens it suggests there is some decent ridging going on to the north.

Also might mean the models will shift south a little in the mid range

Quite possibly though I think we will need to see if that continues for any length of time, may just be an organisational wobble.

With that being said, the GFS begins the 290-300 motion pretty much right now looking at the high resolution charts, its forecasted by the GFS to be above 17N by 06z, so thats a benchmark to watch for. Easily do-able at this point but if it doesn't make it, maybe just a hint the upper pattern is more ridgy than expected.

[Kingarabian]

Some dry air lurking to the NW:



Maybe why the Euro keeps it as a TS for the next 4 days

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The predicted SW dive in the MDR is highly unusual, and when it's happened in the past it's rarely ever a good thing for landmasses. Normally, if I saw a storm at Irma's lat., long., and intensity, I'd say there's absolutely no way it would touch the USA. I'm not certain of that now. I think the islands should pay very close attention to this system.

[BYG Jacob]

Some dry air lurking to the NW:



Maybe why the Euro keeps it as a TS for the next 4 days

Irma looks organized enough where it shouldn't be too much of a hindrance, but it will probably stop her from intensifying.

[cycloneye]

The sun sets over Irma.

[1900hurricane]

Irma is a name that was used in the WPac for many years. Unsurprisingly, the name was given to some pretty intense super typhoons, including one with a dropsonde measured pressure of 884 mb. It'll be interesting to see what this name does now that it has been introduced to the Atlantic basin. As already mentioned, this iteration has some serious long track ACE potential.

[KWT]

Some dry air lurking to the NW:

Maybe why the Euro keeps it as a TS for the next 4 days

Yeah there is some drier air, I think its probably somewhat helping to keep the convection in check at the moment and stopping it from blowing up too much.

IDry air is very obviously on the Vis.loops as well. Shouldn't stop hold it down for too long and once this starts getting towards the warmer waters around 45-50W I'm thinking it really takes off, its got an amazing structure afterall.

[jabman98]

Been so focused on Harvey I hadn't taken time to look over here. Yikes! Almost wish I hadn't looked.