ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#301 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:28 pm

What was the other system in this same area.. maybe a little south that produced record cold cloud tops a few years back.. ? didn't survive long but was in a crazy divergent pattern..
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#302 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:What was the other system in this same area.. maybe a little south that produced record cold cloud tops a few years back.. ? didn't survive long but was in a crazy divergent pattern..



Hanna 2008 had insane convection at one time in about the same area.

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#303 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:38 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:What was the other system in this same area.. maybe a little south that produced record cold cloud tops a few years back.. ? didn't survive long but was in a crazy divergent pattern..



Hanna 2008 had insane convection at one time in about the same area.
http://f3.ifrm.com/14966/0/upload/p11040189.jpg


I was thinking that but cant remember I can only see the satellite loop in my head lol
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#304 Postby sikkar » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:40 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#305 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:What was the other system in this same area.. maybe a little south that produced record cold cloud tops a few years back.. ? didn't survive long but was in a crazy divergent pattern..


Perhaps it was Fiona 2010?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#306 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:43 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:What was the other system in this same area.. maybe a little south that produced record cold cloud tops a few years back.. ? didn't survive long but was in a crazy divergent pattern..


Perhaps it was Fiona 2010?

possibly.. I have been going over every year.. cant seem to find it.. but I know it happened.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#307 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:47 pm

Pretty sure it was Hanna.. anyway.. the way Jose looks right now reminds me of it ..

lol
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#308 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:58 pm

lol look at the size.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#309 Postby sikkar » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:00 am

Image

Pacific style :D
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#310 Postby djones65 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:28 am

Aric? I am pretty certain you are thinking of hurricane Bertha in early August 2014...
It became an amorphous looking 70 kt hurricane northeast of the Bahamas based on recon reports and satellite imagery of incredibly cold topped convective cover with no banding features. As the convection warmed subsequent recon reports indicated significantly lower winds and was downgraded about 12 hours later.
I am confident Bertha '14 is the storm you are thinking about with the incredibly cold topped convection
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#311 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:34 am

djones65 wrote:Aric? I am pretty certain you are thinking of hurricane Bertha in early August 2014...
It became an amorphous looking 70 kt hurricane northeast of the Bahamas based on recon reports and satellite imagery of incredibly cold topped convective cover with no banding features. As the convection warmed subsequent recon reports indicated significantly lower winds and was downgraded about 12 hours later.
I am confident Bertha '14 is the storm you are thinking about with the incredibly cold topped convection


nojust looked at the satellite loop of bertha itwas to fast. this system ( pretty sure it was hanna) moved slowly for awhile and convection was much deeper than bertha.
JOSE has a larger and colder cloud canopy that bertha..
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#312 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:37 am

seriously thats crazy//

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#313 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:39 am

Aric Dunn wrote:seriously thats crazy//

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html



Looks to be strengthening again as the outflow from irma weakens. You can also see hints of a eye on the "ir" earlier tonight...
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#314 Postby djones65 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:36 am

Off topic but quick question...
Does anyone know if Stacy Stewart is still working at the NHC? Has he been deployed again? Or did he quietly retire?
I have not seen him author an advisory in two months now.
If anyone knows thanks in advance.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#315 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:21 am

Aric Dunn wrote:What was the other system in this same area.. maybe a little south that produced record cold cloud tops a few years back.. ? didn't survive long but was in a crazy divergent pattern..


Could've been Cristobal in 2014 or Leslie in 2012.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260055.GIF
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030045.GIF
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#316 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:02 am

Intense, deep convection in the core.
If this was entirely shear driven, it would have rained out by now.
Still holding up strong rain rate on last satellite pass.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#317 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:24 am

Shear appears to be loosening up a little bit. Looks like it's trying to become more than a single overshoot convective canopy.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#318 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:42 am

Definitely improved on the north

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#319 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:33 am

Jose looks might impressive this morning... and it seems for now at least the shear has relaxed quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion

#320 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:52 am

looking at the convective pattern and low level CU lines.. I would say its is more on a ESE to SE motion already. I think recon needs to do a trip..
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