ATL: JOSE - Models

[weathaguyry]

That jackknife turn that the models show doesn't seem right, would Jose really head ESE, stop, and then move WNW?

[txwatcher91]

That jackknife turn that the models show doesn't seem right, would Jose really head ESE, stop, and then move WNW?

Already it appears the models are picking up on the fact that this isn't going to head due east... the latest NAM is a good bit south of it's previous run and shows more of a UK loop although not as far south. If GFS follows suit then this could be an indication the models showing the recurve might start adjusting west to compensate for a loop that goes south versus drifting east then wnw after that.

[stormreader]

And its pretty clear from satellite the shear is not weakening jose. If anything he looks much better amd also not heading straight east. More ese..

I guess the short-term trend to watch for over the next 12-18 hours would be if Jose gains an even more pronounced southern motion. If by tomorrow afternoon the system is south of 25N on a S or SSW heading, the UK may be on to something.

Agree. That would probably be the most important factor. Doesn't mean Jose will impact US, but a longer and more pronounced loop that brings Jose around further S and W gives the storm a better chance for impact.

[WAcyclone]

The difference between EPS and UKMO is like day and night...

[Aric Dunn]

The difference between EPS and UKMO is like day and night...

http://i.imgur.com/F510Mpd.gif

The amazing thing is how relatively tightly clustered all the ukmets members are compared to the huge spread in the eps members.

[Aric Dunn]

With its current ese to now se motion amd accelerating. I have a feeling some models will be shifting west soon..

[storm4u]

18z gfs west of 12z so far

[clipper35]

With its current ese to now se motion amd accelerating. I have a feeling some models will be shifting west soon..

Aric do you think this shift to the west will happen and why?

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z GFS is west by about 2 degrees by hr 84

[AutoPenalti]

18z gfs west of 12z so far

This is the start.

[sma10]

Yes, a non-insignificant shift to the SW for the 18z GFS, though nowhere near as far SW as UK, of course.

For the past couple days, I have figured that the UK was likely off its rocker. Interestingly though, I've just looked back at the last several consecutive runs and have found that, not only has it "stood its ground" but each successive run has actually moved further and further SW. So just when you think it will give in to the other models, it actually has increased its outlier status.

It's showing quite an odd track, but I guess Irma was an odd track too.

[bqknight]

The difference between EPS and UKMO is like day and night...

http://i.imgur.com/F510Mpd.gif

The main difference there is definitely strength.

[HurricaneEric]

Considering Jose looks to be organizing well, as of now, the UKMet definitely has my attention. As its been said, UKMet preformed really well with Matthew and Irma, so I'm not so ready to discount it and its ensemble members.

I appreciate Alyono's post because I'm a Miamian that evacuated to NC for Irma, so I was wondering what the timetable would be when we would know if Jose would be a threat or not.

So what I'm gathering from the idea of "stronger = more west" is that a stronger system would "pump the ridge"? Or is it something else?

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[Ken711]

Intensity wise is the UKMET track is varied, is it showing no more than a Cat 2, is that correct?

['CaneFreak]

Yes I would say the warmer waters and the latent heat release from a stronger system could definitely "pump the ridge". Also, the faster this thing turns southeast, south, southwest, and then west the better chance it will have to impact the US because it will allow the storm to go farther west before the incoming trough has a chance to pick it up. On the current NHC track, there is a significant delay in seeing the turn. But based on the latest satellite images, I think we are going to see some changes needed in the forecast.

Considering Jose looks to be organizing well, as of now, the UKMet definitely has my attention. As its been said, UKMet preformed really well with Matthew and Irma, so I'm not so ready to discount it and its ensemble members.

I appreciate Alyono's post because I'm a Miamian that evacuated to NC for Irma, so I was wondering what the timetable would be when we would know if Jose would be a threat or not.

So what I'm gathering from the idea of "stronger = more west" is that a stronger system would "pump the ridge"? Or is it something else?

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[hohnywx]

Intensity wise is the UKMET track is varied, is it showing no more than a Cat 2, is that correct?

Lowest pressure from the 12z appears to be 945, so definitely at least a cat 3.

[sma10]

Bear in mind, that if you 'buy in' to the UK solution, there is no saving trough. On its last iteration, the system exits thru C FL, then bends back west and enters Gulf

[Ken711]

Bear in mind, that if you 'buy in' to the UK solution, there is no saving trough. On its last iteration, the system exits thru C FL, then bends back west and enters Gulf

If it makes it to the Bahamas and strengthens, why couldn't it then head up to the Carolinas?

[sma10]

Bear in mind, that if you 'buy in' to the UK solution, there is no saving trough. On its last iteration, the system exits thru C FL, then bends back west and enters Gulf

If it makes it to the Bahamas and strengthens, why couldn't it then head up to the Carolinas?

Certainly a possibility, but that is not the UK's current solution; it's portraying a very strong ridge.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone I am happy to say that my power is back on fully about a two-day wait for my power to be restored but I'm back and I'm okay.

I am trying to catch up on things and everyone, please tell me Jose will not be a threat to the CONUS? Is he going to complete the loop and have the UKMET score a huge coup. I do know before Irma came rampaging through our region, I do recall seeing the UKMET being the only major model being alone with its solution of striking Florida within the next 7 -8 days. Wow folks to borrow a favorite song of mine from Daryl Hall & John Oates back in the day:: SAY IT ISN'T SO!!!!