ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS suddenly hooks inland and spares me...but wipes DC, Baltimore, and the Delmarva off the face of the earth with a C4 impact...holy moly. Take verbatim, that would make Sandy look like a rain shower.

[ronjon]

12z GFS Ocean City Md landfall. GEM North Carolina...lets see where the Euro ends up.

[AutoPenalti]

The trend seems to be much slower compared to 06z and 0z.

[Steve]

Oh wow. There's a curveball in the end game. A hook west as a strong tropical storm heading for Pittsburgh. Not every day can Pittsburgh say they're under a tropical storm warning!

Up to Ashtabula. Who's next - Buffalo or Cleveland?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=186

[hurricaneCW]

If that massive blocking ridge over Eastern Canada is correct then it doesn't matter what happens with the trough, someone's going to get hit on the east coast because the OTS route will get shut off.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The trend seems to be much slower compared to 06z and 0z.

And more west. Possibly gracefully trending towards the Euro (assuming that doesn't shift east by much)?

[slamdaddy]

Is there an area along the east coast where the models haven't showed a landfall yet ? That's some high confidence there.

[WAcyclone]

Does anyone know if the adjustment techniques used by CFAN are actually increasing the forecast skill? According to Jeff Master's most recent post, the adjusted ECMWF operational run (red line) takes Irma right into southern Florida. The same scenario is shown by three of the five so-called "high probability clusters" (which are probably adjusted EPS members). However, the WSW movement in the Bahamas seems very suspect to me...



Source: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles

[Hurricane Andrew]

Oh wow. There's a curveball in the end game. A hook west as a strong tropical storm heading for Pittsburgh. Not every day can Pittsburgh say they're under a tropical storm warning!

All I know is how scary it would be to be sitting on the NE coast, watching a <900mb storm barrel northwards...is that even possible for a storm this far north? I mean..I can believe 920-940mb...but 890-900?

[SouthFLTropics]

Between the CMC, the Euro, and the GFS this has all of the makings of Floyd part II. I still think the GFS is too far right in the mid term but the end result is relatively close.

[Ken711]

Oh wow. There's a curveball in the end game. A hook west as a strong tropical storm heading for Pittsburgh. Not every day can Pittsburgh say they're under a tropical storm warning!

Up to Ashtabula. Who's next - Buffalo or Cleveland?

I still see a possible Isabel track as a possibility.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If that massive blocking ridge over Eastern Canada is correct then it doesn't matter what happens with the trough, someone's going to get hit on the east coast because the OTS route will get shut off.

Wonderful. Just wonderful.

[crimi481]

I think the models showing a trend more south and west ? also slower. Weaker trough- stronger ridge? Time will tell

[ronjon]

That building ridge off new england will be something to watch along with how quickly the trough lifts out. This run by GFS saves new england. Speed of Irma will also play a roll.

[sma10]

I'd be VERY surprised if the Euro didn't change its tune this afternoon and trend East towards the GFS.

Why?

[AxaltaRacing24]

I'd be VERY surprised if the Euro didn't change its tune this afternoon and trend East towards the GFS.

Why?

I second this. If anything the GFS is the one trending towards the euro. It's gone from Nova Scotta to VA in 3 days.

[Steve]

Oh wow. There's a curveball in the end game. A hook west as a strong tropical storm heading for Pittsburgh. Not every day can Pittsburgh say they're under a tropical storm warning!

All I know is how scary it would be to be sitting on the NE coast, watching a <900mb storm barrel northwards...is that even possible for a storm this far north? I mean..I can believe 920-940mb...but 890-900?

I don't know. It would be ultra rare, but it's early enough in the year, and just off and along the US East Coast (ocean wise) has been a hotspot for several years.

Hello Detroit and Ann Arbor still as a tight tropical storm. How often does Pittsburgh, Ashtabula and Detroit get hit? I'd say pretty much never. This would be one for history.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS suddenly hooks inland and spares me...but wipes DC, Baltimore, and the Delmarva off the face of the earth with a C4 impact...holy moly. Take verbatim, that would make Sandy look like a rain shower.

CMC hooks a left inland as well after hitting North Carolina. Strong ridging building in up north.

[Steve]

Oh wow. There's a curveball in the end game. A hook west as a strong tropical storm heading for Pittsburgh. Not every day can Pittsburgh say they're under a tropical storm warning!

Up to Ashtabula. Who's next - Buffalo or Cleveland?

I still see a possible Isabel track as a possibility.

Yeah. It's more from the east than the southeast, but the same general areas - except probably still much stronger at that point than she was.

[ronjon]

Does anyone know if the adjustment techniques used by CFAN are actually increasing the forecast skill? According to Jeff Master's most recent post, the adjusted ECMWF operational run (red line) takes Irma right into southern Florida. The same scenario is shown by three of the five so-called "high probability clusters" (which are probably adjusted EPS members). However, the WSW movement in the Bahamas seems very suspect to me...

Source: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles

It didn't work all that well with Matthew last year. Consistently showed more tracks over Florida.