ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3081 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:11 pm

Islands in trouble at hour 72 on the ECMWF.
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3082 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:13 pm

Still a bit slower and more NE
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evenstar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 186
Joined: Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:11 pm
Location: Chesapeake, Virginia

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3083 Postby Evenstar » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:13 pm

Michele B wrote:
Alyono wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Trough is strong there. Maybe it is OTS????????



If you want an out to sea scenario, you want a WEAK TROUGH!!! This is said many times, but needs to be repeated. A stronger trough is going to have a sharper tilt, if not a negative tilt. That will only bring the storm inland. A weak trough is more zonal



I hope I can shed a little light on this. Please, promets, correct me if I state this wrong:

Think of a LOW pressure trough like a bowl...it will draw the storm INTO it, like water spilling INTO a bowl.
A HIGH pressure ridge is like the bowl turned upside down. It will repel the storm AWAY from and around it.


Michelle, you are genius. You have finally explained the high pressure ridge and the low pressure trough thing in a way I can understand...
1 likes   
I never received my Hogwarts letter, so I'm leaving the Shire and becoming a Sith Lord.
Top
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3084 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:15 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Still a bit slower and more NE
Image

How are you comparing? The only apples to apples is with Fri 12z ... i show the sat 12z slightly faster
1 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3085 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:16 pm

96hrs.

Image

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3086 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:16 pm

sma10 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Still a bit slower and more NE
Image

How are you comparing? The only apples to apples is with Fri 12z ... i show the sat 12z slightly faster

I have a separate tab open and I go back and fourth to compare lat/lon and ridging/toughing.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3087 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:16 pm

12 EURO is into the north islands... :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3088 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm

Ouch

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3089 Postby crimi481 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm

So if Irma slows down sooner than later, should give the ridge time to strengthen. Ya think?

Not a pro
2 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3090 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm

Stronger trough and ridging
Image
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3091 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm

not to rhyme.. but its slower and lower...
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145869
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3092 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:18 pm

I am going to get a decent blow if it verifies. :eek:
5 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3093 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:19 pm

Futher South indeed PR in play here
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3094 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:not to rhyme.. but its slower and lower...

Basically all models so far today have shifted SW overall.
2 likes   
Top
Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1115
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3095 Postby Michele B » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:20 pm

WAcyclone wrote:Does anyone know if the adjustment techniques used by CFAN are actually increasing the forecast skill? According to Jeff Master's most recent post, the adjusted ECMWF operational run (red line) takes Irma right into southern Florida. The same scenario is shown by three of the five so-called "high probability clusters" (which are probably adjusted EPS members). However, the WSW movement in the Bahamas seems very suspect to me...

Image

Source: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles


What is that red line? Why is that RED LINE going right over my house?!?!?!?!?

:double:
0 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022
Top
Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1115
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3096 Postby Michele B » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:not to rhyme.. but its slower and lower...


Slower is not good. Slower allows the trough to pull out and miss influencing Irma
2 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3097 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:21 pm

trough should lift out on the by 120 hours.. looks similar to the 00z it terms of timing of trough but irma is slower.. possible florida landfall this time.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3098 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:21 pm

120hrs.

Image

Image

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3099 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:21 pm

Bahamas still in play.
Image
0 likes   
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3100 Postby crimi481 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:22 pm

Possibly fools us all, and goes under P.R. to Jamaica. Models seem to trend slower and s.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests