ATL: JOSE - Models

[GCANE]

[CrazyC83]

The UKMET doesn't want to give in! I wonder if this is turning out like Joaquin, when the ECMWF resisted a landfall and was correct...

[Dean4Storms]

Jose appears to be missing NHC forecast points to the west of their track, dropping more SE certainly not E or even ESE.

[ColdMiser123]

Need to see 0z SAB point and 0z Best Track to see how much this deviates from NHC track and the 12z UKMET.

[ColdMiser123]

SAB has it at 27.0 N, 67.0 W. That is already a half-degree north of the UKMET projected forecast point for 0z.

2345Z SAB
12/2345 UTC 27.2N 67.0W T4.0/4.0 JOSE

12z UKMET valid 0z.
0000UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.5N 66.8W 968 71

[GCANE]

Performance so far for Jose
GFS: Green
Euro: Blue
UKMET: Purple

[Aric Dunn]

Need to see 0z SAB point and 0z Best Track to see how much this deviates from NHC track and the 12z UKMET.

well both the SAB and best track have been off... hopefully with the new convective pattern they wont be.

but if thismotion continues ... like I mentioned earlier.. it will passing the 18z september 14th positon to the south. yes thats 2 days early... .

[ColdMiser123]

That being said, it does look to be already a bit SW of the NHC track with the SAB microwave fix.

[Aric Dunn]

That being said, it does look to be already a bit SW of the NHC track with the SAB microwave fix.

http://i.imgur.com/Gjnoj69.png

I have it 26.40° N 73.58° W and moving ese to almost SE

[TheStormExpert]

Boy I hope the UKMET is wrong here. We were really pounded by Irma here in SE Florida with so many people out of power and lots of tree damage along with some structural damage here and there. Obviously it could have been a lot worse but another storm so soon would really not be good.

Yeah Irma surely packed a decent punch for the immediate east coast of Florida despite the center being about 100 miles off to the west over Floridas west coast. Though not quite as intense compared to Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma in my opinion for NE Palm Beach County I am now without power for the 3rd time and am currently sitting here listening to the sound of generators buzzing around me. Brings back memories to my latter childhood when I experienced Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma.

Honestly I'm having a tough time buying into the UKMET solution when all the other models are basically up into the Mid-Atlantic or NE U.S. or OTS with Jose.

[Kingarabian]

It'll be the year of the UKMET office if it pulls this one off.

[Aric Dunn]

It'll be the year of the UKMET office if it pulls this one off.

it did receive an upgrade recently

[wxman57]

It'll be the year of the UKMET office if it pulls this one off.

it did receive an upgrade recently

...so did the GFS...

[Aric Dunn]

It'll be the year of the UKMET office if it pulls this one off.

it did receive an upgrade recently

...so did the GFS...

haha.. yes GFS has had many though I cant recall to many that made a difference.. this new one for the GFS appears to be over doing intensity but does not seem to be doing much for track.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the UKMET has 4 or 5 consecutive runs with the same track into Florida, rather persistent.

[1900hurricane]

It'll be the year of the UKMET office if it pulls this one off.

it did receive an upgrade recently

...so did the GFS...

"Upgrade."

[jdray]

Good evening everyone I am happy to say that my power is back on fully about a two-day wait for my power to be restored but I'm back and I'm okay.

I am trying to catch up on things and everyone, please tell me Jose will not be a threat to the CONUS? Is he going to complete the loop and have the UKMET score a huge coup. I do know before Irma came rampaging through our region, I do recall seeing the UKMET being the only major model being alone with its solution of striking Florida within the next 7 -8 days. Wow folks to borrow a favorite song of mine from Daryl Hall & John Oates back in the day:: SAY IT ISN'T SO!!!!

Glad to see more of us get power back. Ours came back today out here in Clay. We need weeks to dry out. Im not liking what I see with the UKMet so far. Even a strong Tropical Storm would be bad right now.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the UKMET has 4 or 5 consecutive runs with the same track into Florida, rather persistent.

Looks like 00z on the 9th ssoooo... 6 runs with a couple more before that with a stretch.. .. though even before then it has had a more sothern loop ..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... &year=2017

[RL3AO]

UKMET did well during the beginning of Irma but so did the Euro. GFS actually beat the UKMET quite easily once it got near the islands. The fact the Euro and GFS are saying out to sea gives me very little pause that it will do so. Maybe they tracks meet in the middle but that will still be out to sea.

[AutoPenalti]

it did receive an upgrade recently

...so did the GFS...

"Upgrade."

An upgrade is still an upgrade my friend, the difference is how it's executed.