ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Maria continues to organize this morning. She is building a very nice inner core structure and I think by the early this afternoon, I would not be least surprised to find that Maria will be a well developed hurricane.

The mid level ridge steering Maria will weaken slightly the next couple of days, which will allow the cyclone to move north of due west and slow the forward speed through the 5- day period. NHC made no changes with their projected forecast track on their 5 a.m. advisory. They keep Maria right near the coast of Hispaniola as a major tropical cyclone on early Friday morning at the end of the 120 hour period.

[Nimbus]

The continental ridging is a couple hundred miles further east centered off the Texas coast rather than back over New Mexico. That might keep troughing further east and protect the CONUS unless there is a retrograde near the end of the forecast. Better modeled by the GFS ATM.

Puerto Rico and Hispaniola appear to be in the most danger according to the models, 0Z Euro tracks a ~980 hurricane south of Puerto Rico 6Z GFS tracks a 945 mb hurricane just north of the island.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-48-1-100

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, i do not like that this sentence...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.

[banksmanforever]

To my untrained eye it looks like its heading west again .... ant thoughts

[gfsperpendicular]

To my untrained eye it looks like its heading west again .... ant thoughts

Hmmm... I still see WNW, maybe someone with a bit more experience than me can weigh in

[pgoss11]

Geesh..the islands just can't seem to take a break this year. My heart just breaks for yet another hit for them this season. All the work they've been doing to clean up the mess from the prior storms and now this. Just praying for their ability to cope and get through yet another storm. I'm praying for all of you in the islands!

[NotSparta]

Cycloneye, i do not like that this sentence...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.

Yet another nearly perfect environment for intensification

[Gustywind]

NHC raises winds in the latest forecast close to 95 kts Tuesday just on my island of Guadeloupe and near the small locality of Maria... Galante (Marie Galante). That mean winds close to a cat 3 cane Hope that any RI will happen today or tomorrow!

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, i do not like that this sentence...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.

Yet another nearly perfect environment for intensification

looks like that's very bad news if this is confirmed...

[johngaltfla]

It has that "look" and yes, we're tired of it already with the GoM season about to crank up in the next several weeks. So yes, Florida has hurricane fatigue.

[Gustywind]

By the way, at what time the recon is scheduled to investigate Maria? Thanks.

[NotSparta]

By the way, at what time the recon is scheduled to investigate Maria? Thanks.

Noon EST iirc

[abajan]

By the way, at what time the recon is scheduled to investigate Maria? Thanks.

Noon EST iirc

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 17/1800Z                    A. 18/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0115A INVEST          B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
       C. 17/1530Z                    C. 18/0900Z
       D. 14.0N 56.0W                 D. 15.0N 58.6W
       E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2230Z        E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

A. 17/1800Z
That's 2 PM AST, not Noon.

[Happy Pelican]

Ah, man. Puerto Rico is looking to take a real beating from Maria. Stay strong, our Island friends.

[NotSparta]

By the way, at what time the recon is scheduled to investigate Maria? Thanks.

Noon EST iirc

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 17/1800Z                    A. 18/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0115A INVEST          B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
       C. 17/1530Z                    C. 18/0900Z
       D. 14.0N 56.0W                 D. 15.0N 58.6W
       E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2230Z        E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

A. 17/1800Z
That's 2 PM AST, not Noon.

Sorry, my bad

[abajan]

By the way, at what time the recon is scheduled to investigate Maria? Thanks.

Things not looking good for Guadeloupe, Gusty.
And the outlook for Puerto Rico, where cycloneye is, looks even worse: major hurricane traversing the entire breadth of the island!

Praying for you guys.

[northjaxpro]

I am definitely watching closely the developments down in the Northeast Caribbean Islands. My heart absolutely breaks for everyone down in that area who have been through natural disasters, one after another this season. Now they're facing another potential major hurricane with Maria in the next few days. My heart and prayers go out to everyone down there and I pray God speed as with the completion of your preparations and that God be with you through this storm. I have to thank that, like I am, people are just absolutely fatigued and storm weary here in the CONUS. Irma impacted everyone from the Caribbean to right here in Florida . Harvey devastated the NW Gulf Coast region and. South Texas . People are watching and our hearts are with you all . We are not ignoring you whatsoever absolutely not!!! My prayers are always with you all out there and please keep us posted on your updates out there if it is possible. Your safety and well being is the up most priority now particularly cycloneye, gustywind, Ms Bee, abajan and all of our other Storm2K family members out there in that region! Take Care and God bless you all!!

[abajan]

I am definitely watching closely the developments down in the Northeast Caribbean Islands. My heart absolutely breaks for everyone down in that area who have been through natural disasters, one after another this season. Now they're facing another potential major hurricane with Maria in the next few days. My heart and prayers go out to everyone down there and I pray God speed as with the completion of your preparations and that God be with you through this storm. I have to thank that, like I am, people are just absolutely fatigued and storm weary here in the CONUS. Irma impacted everyone from the Caribbean to right here in Florida . Harvey devastated the NW Gulf Coast region and. South Texas . People are watching and our hearts are with you all . We are not ignoring you whatsoever absolutely not!!! My prayers are always with you all out there and please keep us posted on your updates out there if it is possible. Your safety and well being is the up most priority now particularly cycloneye, gustywind, Ms Bee, abajan and all of our other Storm2K family members out there in that region! Take Care and God bless you all!!

Much appreciated.