SouthFLTropics wrote:Euro vs GFS
gap filling
ATL: IRMA - Models
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NJWxHurricane
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Turning north just like the ECMWF at hour 168. US spared?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 8779296875
No way...door is closing. I think this has Delmarva written all over it once again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
weathaguyry wrote:874mb at 168 hours
Only 4mb from the record low on earth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
oh .. its coming into the carolinas.. a lot of riding building back from the east.. looks like a slight cutt off low backing west over ohio valley.. never wrong image again.. lol
nevermind. weaking and lifting trough with building ridge
nevermind. weaking and lifting trough with building ridge
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:Turning north just like the ECMWF at hour 168. US spared?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 8779296875
No way...door is closing. I think this has Delmarva written all over it once again.
I guess I was just hoping it would be the case.
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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
WHYB630 wrote:
890hPa you kidding me
Yeah, but thankfully looking pretty Far East at this point. Don't know what's happening up the coast yet but Florida would just be worried about some monster waves, beach erosion, and some tidal flooding in this scenario. .
Last edited by otowntiger on Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mouton
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
But wait, the GFS can now toss in a 878mb at 168. Anyone believe that one??
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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Ridge doesn't look quite as strong compared to 12z, so she may take a little bit of a ride up north before going in...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Mouton wrote:But wait, the GFS can now toss in a 878mb at 168. Anyone believe that one??
That seems awfully low. Is that even possible in the Atlantic? Truly? And with these conditions?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
So another west shift from both models?
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Euro vs. GFS
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Langinbang187
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Kalrany wrote:Mouton wrote:But wait, the GFS can now toss in a 878mb at 168. Anyone believe that one??
That seems awfully low. Is that even possible in the Atlantic? Truly? And with these conditions?
Nope.
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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Ridge really doesn't look crazy strong right now, so it may have to go farther north before the turn back in...
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I think we have a pretty good consensus between the models that somewhere in the SW Atlantic between the Bahamas to the Carolinas there is going to be a VERY SIGNIFICANT hurricane in the area by next weekend.
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