ATL: IRMA - Models

[Langinbang187]

Well the most important thing here GFS back on board with developing the storm. Still way too far out to know where it goes. Should have a better idea in a few days hopefully.

[WeatherEmperor]

As others have already mentioned, there is remarkable agreement between the GFS and Euro on the position of 93L at 240hrs. However, that is where the similarities end.

The GFS shows more ridging on the US East Coast and if that stays...will push 93L into FL or other parts of the East Coast. The Euro has more troughing at the East Coast at 240hrs which if that stays in place...could lead to turning 93L away from the coast. Which model will be correct with the trough-ridge setup? Stay tuned


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[tolakram]

Well the most important thing here GFS back on board with developing the storm. Still way too far out to know where it goes. Should have a better idea in a few days hopefully.

I'm not sure what to think. It holds back most development until after the MDR in the range where, frankly, it's just not good at all, and then in fine traditional form it finds a way to hit Florida. No clue what to think of the GFS this year so it will be interesting to see if 93L develops in the MDR or not.

[floridasun78]

As others have already mentioned, there is remarkable agreement between the GFS and Euro Euro on the position of 93L at 240hrs. However, that is where the similarities end.

The GFS shows more ridging on the US East Coast and if that stays...will push 93L into FL or other parts of the East Coast. The Euro has more troughing at the East Coast at 240hrs which if that stays in place...could lead to turning 93L away from the coast. Which model will be correct with the trough-ridge setup? Stay tuned


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that going issue we wont know long time the answer will high be strong as Euro or be week as gfs show was gfs have it bahamas few run ago?

[Blown Away]

GFS modeling a classic cape Verde monster.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS modeling a classic cape Verde monster.

The GFS vs Euro and the setup remind me of the beasts in the 2000s. Nice throwback setup.

[northjaxpro]

I am just going to not do too much speculating at this juncture. Yes, the scenarios both the Euro and the GFS is showing down the road is disturbing, but we're still at least 10 days out before any potential U.S. impacts. I'll start paying more closer attention to the models and what they're showing by the time 93L reaches near the Caribbean in about 4-5 days from now.


It is from that juncture from that point I will be watching carefully. I am not going to even delve into the potential BOC development the models are hinting at as well. That is crazy to think of something potentially impacting Texas or Louisiana within the next week. The thought of this just.makes me utterly sick given the horrendous situation in Harvey's aftermath!

[GCANE]

GFS 84 hrs out looks viable.
Strong 700mb Lagrangain OW (L1-32).
Clear 355K PV and ULL to the NW which will track with 93L.

[cycloneye]

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance/18z GEFS Ensembles.

[USTropics]

The GFS ensemble trend over the past 5 runs has increased chances of development as well as a significantly increased threat to the CONUS:

[ace]

I am not going to even delve into the potential BOC development the models are hinting at as well. That is crazy to think of something potentially impacting Texas or Louisiana within the next week. The thought of this just.makes me utterly sick given the horrendous situation in Harvey's aftermath!

Actually.....I live in Spring, Texas in a tiny rectangle surrounded by Cypress Creek\Spring Creek the Inverness Resevoir and Kingwood Flooding. As I'm typing this, I'm listening to non-stop helicopters to my North and South doing high water rescues - tonight at 9:35 p.m. CST. The reservoirs, dams, rivers and levies to my West and East have not crested yet and are under a ridiculous amount of pressure. Our First Responders and the Cajun Navy are saving our butts along with a ton of civilian boaters and jet skiers. Five miles from me there are, literally, miles and miles of subdivisions that have *way more than* 5 feet in their homes. I'm a teacher and I'm worried about my kiddos, their homes and our schools. Honestly, I have serious doubts that Houston will recover and there will be an exodus.

I'd be thrilled if you guys would delve into the potential BOC development the models are hinting at next week....as well as the 3 others lined up. It's pretty serious here.

[tolakram]

I am not going to even delve into the potential BOC development the models are hinting at as well. That is crazy to think of something potentially impacting Texas or Louisiana within the next week. The thought of this just.makes me utterly sick given the horrendous situation in Harvey's aftermath!

Actually.....I live in Spring, Texas in a tiny rectangle surrounded by Cypress Creek\Spring Creek the Inverness Resevoir and Kingwood Flooding. As I'm typing this, I'm listening to non-stop helicopters to my North and South doing high water rescues - tonight at 9:35 p.m. CST. The reservoirs, dams, rivers and levies to my West and East have not crested yet and are under a ridiculous amount of pressure. Our First Responders and the Cajun Navy are saving our butts along with a ton of civilian boaters and jet skiers. Five miles from me there are, literally, miles and miles of subdivisions that have *way more than* 5 feet in their homes. I'm a teacher and I'm worried about my kiddos, their homes and our schools. Honestly, I have serious doubts that Houston will recover and there will be an exodus.

I'd be thrilled if you guys would delve into the potential BOC development the models are hinting at next week....as well as the 3 others lined up. It's pretty serious here.

Too far out Ace, your best bet is to keep an eye on things. The vast majority of model storms either do not develop or go nowhere near where the models say they will this early. Past 4 or 5 days we are looking for trends and possibilities. If it gets closer the NHC or local weather will tell you what to expect.

[tolakram]

GFS modeling a classic cape Verde monster.

The GFS vs Euro and the setup remind me of the beasts in the 2000s. Nice throwback setup.

The GFS shows nothing until the Bahamas.

[tolakram]

Folks, keep in mind 93L has a discussion thread. Keep the model thread to models and avoid that chaff, one line comments, etc. Posts in here can be removed without warning.

[USTropics]

Not sure if the UKMET was posted here earlier for the 12z run (don't look Texas!):

[Blinhart]

GFS 84 hrs out looks viable.
Strong 700mb Lagrangain OW (L1-32).
Clear 355K PV and ULL to the NW which will track with 93L.

What is that top pic? I have never seen it. Is L6-4 or L2-14 what will become the next storm that is suppose to hit the Tx/La Border in a week.

[tolakram]

So maybe a reality check. I placed the cursor over where the Euro looks to develop a tropical depression (48 hours) and came up with this. Not a single US hit. Only when storms develop closer to the US or much lower in latitude do they make it, usually. Never know, this could be a first.



source: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[artist]

So maybe a reality check. I placed the cursor over where the Euro looks to develop a tropical depression and came up with this. Not a single US hit. Only when storms develop closer to the US or much lower in latitude do they make it, usually. Never know, this could be a first.



source: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

We can hope it plays out that way! I hope the models start showing that, and we will be following it until it either hits or not.

[USTropics]

GFS 84 hrs out looks viable.
Strong 700mb Lagrangain OW (L1-32).
Clear 355K PV and ULL to the NW which will track with 93L.
]

What is that top pic? I have never seen it. Is L6-4 or L2-14 what will become the next storm that is suppose to hit the Tx/La Border in a week.

That's the new automated pouch-tracking system. Manual pouch-tracking ended about a year ago.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2017-atlantic.html