ATL: IRMA - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

Gfs has been slowing down Irma and speeding up the trough past few runs so It should turn it North further east each run but it's doing the opposite.

[Aric Dunn]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

So you think slower and deeper Irma pumps the ridge?

What do you think the chances are that a deep trough splits and ridging builds through early?

its hard to say. the next 3 days are key. and the only pumping of the ridging that needs to be really watched is the one currently steering it WSW the farther wsw or west it moves before turning WNW will slow it down allowing the trough to lift out.

[Blown Away]

Euro W of GFS up to @Bahamas and then E of GFS after Bahamas... I'll buy the Euro OTS, but the GFS up the Chesapeake and then NW over mainland is so rare it's so hard to see that happening... Here are my predictions:
1. 35% OTS.
2. 35% N Carolina/OBX.
3. 30% Florida south of Lake O latitude.

[weathaguyry]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

Gfs has been slowing down Irma and speeding up the through past few runs so It should turn it North further east each run but it's doing the opposite.

If the GFS shifts east and the Euro shifts west, both models would probably converge around NJ/NY

[Hurricane Andrew]

HAHAHA oh boy...oh boy.

If 00z Euro doesn't agree, I don't buy it.

[Ken711]

Is it possible for the GFS to strengthen Irma so much as it moves so far north?

[Steve]

The track might happen, but how could a hurricane be that strong (like <880hPa) when it approaches the US continent? Shouldn't it suck the dry air and weaken a bit before it's getting close?

It makes me wonder if it could turn hybrid before landfall, like Sandy

It's not the same setup at all to become a "super storm." It''s probably way stronger though. It could happen, but not based on the GFS run.

Philly, Buffalo, Detroit, then looping back down to Cleveland and out. Meanwhile, a 998mb system hits Pensacola at 360.

[AxaltaRacing24]

There's the Florida action

[GCANE]

[Bocadude85]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

How far southwest Irma is in the next few days will determine where she ends up. In my humble opinion she either hits Florida or the Carolinas if she is going to make landfall. I don't buy these Northeast landfalls the GFS has shown, I refuse to believe the GFS will nail a landfall location 10 days out.

[stormreader]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

I agree. Been saying my "Irma window" begins at Cape Fear, NC and is open south to the north Cuban coast. So I definitely agree with you that a move toward the SC/NC line is much more likely than further north. I wrote off anything from the Outer Banks on North yesterday. That would imply due north at that time. Think there will be continued westerly component during that 9 day period from now. I'll bet many scoff at me keeping the window open as far south as the Fl Straits and the Cuban coast. But things can change quickly, and if the trough is filled in more quickly than expected, I think you could still see a more W component into S Fl or even the Fl Straits. Anyway, I think your SC/NC call is very reasonable.

[Steve]

HWRF is running now @ 18Z.

931mb and approximately 16.6N, 52.8W at 45 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[WHYB630]

IMO the 12z Euro has the ingredients to replicate the 12z/18z GFS's track (the trough...the atlantic high...the blocking). But time and speed of Irma matter a lot and making the differences.
But hey, it is a 8days+ forecast. Even EC and GFS agree with each other that could mean they are both wrong.

[robbielyn]

ok guys off topic but frank p at 12:48 posted on TT that a system could possibly be developing off western tip of cuba or at least an interesting area to keep an eye on. It now has rotation. check it out it is much closer to home

[Jonny]

There's the Florida action

No thank you.

[NJWxHurricane]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

How far southwest Irma is in the next few days will determine where she ends up. In my humble opinion she either hits Florida or the Carolinas if she is going to make landfall. I don't buy these Northeast landfalls the GFS has shown, I refuse to believe the GFS will nail a landfall location 10 days out.

euro sends this ots

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Steve]

HWRF is still below 17N at 63 hours but is up on it at 66 hours. That's 7am on Tuesday morning.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF dips the track further south below 17N so will likely be the southern outlier.

[Ken711]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

How far southwest Irma is in the next few days will determine where she ends up. In my humble opinion she either hits Florida or the Carolinas if she is going to make landfall. I don't buy these Northeast landfalls the GFS has shown, I refuse to believe the GFS will nail a landfall location 10 days out.

euro sends this ots

Only one run, not a trend.