ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like the best cat 2 I have ever seen. Has anyone seen better at cat 2?

[tolakram]

15:04z

[Blinhart]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.

From what I have been reading here EWRC is almost complete, and since this is still almost 12 hours away from having the eye make contact with the coastline plenty of time for this to go from a low end Cat 3 to a low end Cat 4.

[gatorcane]

NEXSAT loop has some amazing views of Harvey:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/ ... PE=Instant

[hd44]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.

From what I have been reading here EWRC is almost complete, and since this is still almost 12 hours away from having the eye make contact with the coastline plenty of time for this to go from a low end Cat 3 to a low end Cat 4.

I doubt it. I think the gfs is doing a good job depicting this with little more intensification.

[jaguars_22]

Going to be a long night here in Victoria i bet we don't get 100mph sustained?

[JPmia]

It looks like the best cat 2 I have ever seen. Has anyone seen better at cat 2?

I'm sure we'll get a special advisory in the not too distant future.

[Longhornmaniac8]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.

Seeing as it's just about done and the environment is still favorable for additional strengthening, I think you'd be wrong with that prediction.

We shall see, though. As you said, it's not going to make a huge difference.

[psyclone]

So it sounds like there is a chance this won't make it to cat 3 status, based on what I read in the 11:00 NHC discussion. I know it certainly could strengthen and they say that, but they are leaving open the possibility that it won't which could certainly be good news for the areas directly in the path of the eyewall, I know that may not be huge in the big picture but every little bit helps. There is certainly a big difference in 110 winds vs 130 or higher. Of course as its made very clear, the biggest threat is the rain and storm surge flooding which will likely be severe regardless of its exact strength. Also another observation is that it is clearly not slowing down is also a bit of good news in that is will have less time to strengthen, and may move farther inland allowing for more weakening prior to the possible gulf re-entry. Just a couple amateur observations here.

The die has been cast. This is going to be a terrible event by any measure. people in the impact zone will be using the "pre Harvey/post Harvey" verbiage for years to come in all likelihood.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-6-0
these are 1/min scan images

[MississippiWx]

It looks like the best cat 2 I have ever seen. Has anyone seen better at cat 2?

Gert was pretty similar.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like the best cat 2 I have ever seen. Has anyone seen better at cat 2?

Gert was pretty similar.

Is it really common for a cyclone to undergo so many EWRCs? Seems quite odd to me.

[Nederlander]

With ewrc in full swing this is likely to landfall as cat 2. I don't anticipate any more intensification . However impacts wont change much between 110 vs 120 mph.

ERC looks to be nearly complete.. still plenty of time to intensify further as it doesn't appear that the ERC weakened the storm at all.. NHC still calling for 120mph at landfall so we will see, but like you said, it's just splitting hairs on whether it will be deemed a "major".

[tolakram]

I doubt it. I think the gfs is doing a good job depicting this with little more intensification.

So you are expecting a 952mb cat 2? HWRF, which has done well, has it down to 947mb before rising just before landfall. I expect a low end cat 3, seems reasonable given the presentation, but more is not out of the question if the erc finishes soon.

[otowntiger]

So it sounds like there is a chance this won't make it to cat 3 status, based on what I read in the 11:00 NHC discussion. I know it certainly could strengthen and they say that, but they are leaving open the possibility that it won't which could certainly be good news for the areas directly in the path of the eyewall, I know that may not be huge in the big picture but every little bit helps. There is certainly a big difference in 110 winds vs 130 or higher. Of course as its made very clear, the biggest threat is the rain and storm surge flooding which will likely be severe regardless of its exact strength. Also another observation is that it is clearly not slowing down is also a bit of good news in that is will have less time to strengthen, and may move farther inland allowing for more weakening prior to the possible gulf re-entry. Just a couple amateur observations here.

Not sure what the difference is in 1mph to make this less dangerous. Storm is 110mph. Cat 3 is 111mph

yeah, the reference to the difference between cat 2 and 3 going from 110 to 111 isn't significant I get that. That would be more a technical/historic perspective. If it makes landfall at 110 there will still be that narrative that a 'major' hasn't hit the US in 12 years, etc. But the earlier predictions by the NHC and certainly some of the models had this closer to 130 and while it may not sound like it 20mph difference is a big jump. The force increases exponentially as I understand it. Anyway I acknowledge that this will be a serious storm regardless but like I said every little bit helps. slight track differences, wind speed, storm structure, forward speed can all work together to have an impact for the better or worse.

[stephen23]

Not sure why some are saying this won't reach Cat 3. There is still What, 18 hrs before landfall? It is at 110mph right now. Cat 3 is 111 mph. The eye wall replacement cycle is just about done. You'd have to be the best hurricane forecaster in human history to be certain this thing couldnt gain 1mph in intensity over the next 18 hrs. It just takes one single reading to show a 1mph increase and we have a Cat 3

[hd44]

It looks like the best cat 2 I have ever seen. Has anyone seen better at cat 2?

Gert was pretty similar.

Is it really common for a cyclone to undergo so many EWRCs? Seems quite odd to me.

Katrina underwent a lot of EWRC . It got really intense after one. The second one is when it approached shore and couldn't intensify anymore... though you could argue the shear increased too.

[hurricaneCW]

There is no good news with Harvey, I still think he will reach Cat 4 status prior to landfall as the winds are still trying to catch up.

This will very likely be one of the biggest if not the biggest natural disaster in US history.

[NDG]

Pressure started dropping again.

151600 2643N 09603W 6970 02666 9438 +165 +135 208025 035 020 001 03

[Aric Dunn]

The last few images from radar showing the inner eyewall has collpased only very shallow remnants remain barely enough to give returns on radar. eye should begin to clear out even more on sat and deepening likely to follow.