ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Yeah, sma10. Whatever it is, it's interesting.

Notice those < -80 degree pinks rotating every once in a while. It's only simulated IR, but I thought that scale stopped at white. And you only get white if you can get it past black and grey. But Pink? Maybe it's unique to that scale only.

Even if it never hit land, based on the 4/5/6 day duration of Cat 4, Irma would join Harvey as a retired name.

Insane. It's so cold and high up that it looks like a dry air slot!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=126

[gatorcane]

I have to admit that is quite a shift south on the HWRF. Another look at how the run ends below. It keeps shifting south each run. Islands watch out.

[AutoPenalti]

Didn't someone mention that the HWRF-parent was it to be used for tracking? Or was it the Parallel?

[SouthFLTropics]

I have to admit that is quite a shift south on the HWRF. Another look at how the run ends below. It keeps shifting south each run. Islands watch out.

That's the 12z Gator...18z is even further South.

[gatorcane]

Whoops was comparing the 12Z vs 18Z and didnt upload right image. 18Z below. Also doesn't look to be gaining as much latitude compared to 12Z:

[SouthFLTropics]

Anybody have the rest of the output from the NAVGEM? TT has stuck on 144 hours.

[gatorcane]

Anybody have the rest of the output from the NAVGEM? TT has stuck on 144 hours.

the NAVGEM keeps inching west too each run. How about how large:

[GeneratorPower]

Whoops was comparing the 12Z vs 18Z and didnt upload right image. 18Z below. Also doesn't look to be gaining as much latitude compared to 12Z:

Looks like a Bahama Mama

[caneman]

It looks like it's going to be a monster size wise

[Michele B]

Whoops was comparing the 12Z vs 18Z and didnt upload right image. 18Z below. Also doesn't look to be gaining as much latitude compared to 12Z:

Looks like a Bahama Mama

What is that pink, white and grey "Eyebrow" thingy??

Is that higher, colder clouds or dry air? It's either a very good or very bad thing.

[Blown Away]

I have to admit that is quite a shift south on the HWRF. Another look at how the run ends below. It keeps shifting south each run. Islands watch out.

HWRF is almost exactly at the NHC 5 day position of 22N/68W...

[weathaguyry]

Whoops was comparing the 12Z vs 18Z and didnt upload right image. 18Z below. Also doesn't look to be gaining as much latitude compared to 12Z:

Looks like a Bahama Mama

What is that pink, white and grey "Eyebrow" thingy??

Is that higher, colder clouds or dry air? It's either a very good or very bad thing.

Colder clouds, you can see on the scale to the right

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like a Bahama Mama

What is that pink, white and grey "Eyebrow" thingy??

Is that higher, colder clouds or dry air? It's either a very good or very bad thing.

Colder clouds, you can see on the scale to the right

Those are the Magenta Oh #%+% Colors

[Steve]

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to. It's temperature which means ridiculous heights or pressure so low that it sucks cold air down from higher up. You don't see that ever. It looks like a dry slot it's so intense.

Oh, and NAVGEM only goes out to 144 at 18Z (or that's all they release if they run it out further).

[stormreader]

I do love the relative size of the eye in that forecast pic, to say... Puerto Rico...

[sma10]

I have to admit that is quite a shift south on the HWRF. Another look at how the run ends below. It keeps shifting south each run. Islands watch out.

HWRF is almost exactly at the NHC 5 day position of 22N/68W...

You've posted the 12z run. The 18z is south of this

[Nimbus]

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to. It's temperature which means ridiculous heights or pressure so low that it sucks cold air down from higher up. You don't see that ever. It looks like a dry slot it's so intense.

Oh, and NAVGEM only goes out to 144 at 18Z (or that's all they release if they run it out further).

There is a delay from the upslope of the mountains with an intense storm like that so that part was probably intentional.

[ronjon]

I do love the relative size of the eye in that forecast pic, to say... Puerto Rico...

Yeah those model simulated IR plots are always way overdone.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Anybody have the rest of the output from the NAVGEM? TT has stuck on 144 hours.

the NAVGEM keeps inching west too each run. How about how large:

The precip swave on this is a good indicator of what may occur Wobbles may be N or S of the centre swave.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Anybody have the rest of the output from the NAVGEM? TT has stuck on 144 hours.

the NAVGEM keeps inching west too each run. How about how large:







The precip swave on this is a good indicator of what may occur Wobbles may be N or S of the centre swave.