ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
I guess the global models were not that off with their surface reflection considering how high the pressures are.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
That and the winds are so low. given the forward speed even a lot of open waves have higher trade winds than this right now.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
They are calling that the center with pressure of 1014mb, 11.23N 57.00W
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Convection building and expanding again with TS Don.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
If it does not have a strong circulation by now. It is very unlikely it makes it even an hour in the eastern carrib speed zone.........
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Plane is about to pass through an area that might contain the center (if it still exists). Definitely the winds are down. No TS winds NE of the center, just 15-20 kts.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Next set from recon should tell us. this pass looks like the center might be a little farther west nearer the deeper convection but still weak winds though the wind field looks ok so far just have to wait and see if there is a west wind.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Well if the center is still alive it made a huge westward reformation ... thats a pretty big jump to the convection if indeed its there still
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
No dvorak above 2.5, i.e KNES, that I have seen so far and to believe it's a 45 knot system despite it's appearance?
That is why recon is so crucial. Sad for the other basins.
That is why recon is so crucial. Sad for the other basins.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
I guess I was wrong, it has opened up to a wave, per the recon.
Edit: unless the coc is still in the process of reforming.
Edit: unless the coc is still in the process of reforming.
Last edited by NDG on Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Im not sure why they turned.. but the center indeed just west of the turning point from recon under the deep convection. pretty darn big reformation.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
this is a wave now. fairly sharp one though
good news is, winds likely won't be that strong with the wave passage
good news is, winds likely won't be that strong with the wave passage
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Latest drop is showing some boundary-layer shear.
Air is saturated though.
Seeing a lot of popcorn Cu-Nims on Vis
Air is saturated though.
Seeing a lot of popcorn Cu-Nims on Vis
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
It would make sense if the center is reforming, since 1014mb with that kind of convection would be pretty crazy
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Recon is leaving. not sure why they did not sample the convection to the west very odd.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
will be coming into radar range over the next few hours.
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... 1500387802
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... 1500387802
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
Very strange indeed that recon is leaving before sampling convection, maybe they were running low on fuel? It appears they found more TS winds right before they left
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm
they left because there is nothing to fly. They were supposed to be there for 6 hours
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